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Methodology

How your tax burden is calculated and where the data comes from.

Figures checked October 2026 · Tax year: 2026

How Your Tax Burden Is Calculated

Official CRA tax rates and formulas are used to calculate your total tax obligation.

Federal Income Tax

Progressive brackets on taxable income (gross less the enhanced-CPP deduction), 2026 federal rates

Source: CRA - Tax rates and income brackets for individuals

Non-refundable credits at 14%: basic personal amount (with high-income phase-out), base CPP, EI, and the Canada Employment Amount

Alberta Provincial Tax

Progressive brackets on taxable income using 2026 Alberta rates

Source: Alberta.ca - Taxes and levies overview

Includes the 8% bracket introduced in 2025 by Bill 39, the Financial Statutes Amendment Act, 2025; credits at 8% for the Alberta basic personal amount, base CPP, and EI

CPP Contributions

Base CPP + CPP2 (if applicable) on pensionable earnings

Source: CRA - CPP contribution rates, maximums and exemptions

CPP2 applies to earnings between the YMPE ($74,600) and the YAMPE ($85,000)

EI Premiums

1.63% of insurable earnings up to the maximum

Source: CRA - EI premium rates and maximums

Maximum insurable earnings: $68,900 for 2026

Sources

  • Canada Revenue Agency, Current year tax rates and income brackets (2026) (Section "Federal rate for 2026"; Section "Alberta rate: 2026"). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Canada Revenue Agency, T4127 Payroll Deductions Formulas, 122nd Edition, effective January 1, 2026 (Chapter 8, Table 8.1 Rates (R, V), income thresholds (A), and constants (K, KP) for 2026, rows Federal A and R; Chapter 4, Step 2 - Formula to calculate basic federal tax (T3): K1 = 0.14 x TC, with K2 and K4 also at 0.14; Chapter 3, Table 3.1 Glossary, K1: "the lowest federal tax rate is used to calculate this credit"; Chapter 8, Table 8.1 Rates (R, V), income thresholds (A), and constants (K, KP) for 2026, rows AB A and V; Chapter 8, Table 8.3 Canada Pension Plan / Quebec Pension Plan 2026 contribution rates and amounts, row CPP (Canada except QC); Chapter 8, Table 8.6 Second additional Canada Pension Plan / Quebec Pension Plan 2026 rates and amounts, row CPP (Canada except QC); Chapter 8, Table 8.7 Employment Insurance 2026 rates and amounts, row Canada except QC (employer contribution rate 0.02282)). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Government of Alberta, Personal income tax (Overview, Table 1. 2025 and 2026 tax brackets; Overview: "Effective January 1, 2025, we introduced a new personal income tax bracket of 8% on the first $60,000 of income."). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Alberta King's Printer, Financial Statutes Amendment Act, 2025, SA 2025 c 9 (Bill 39), assented to May 15, 2025 (Section 2(3), page 5, replacing Alberta Personal Income Tax Act s. 6.1(1)(a)(i) and adding (i.1): 8.0% of taxable income up to $60 000, then 10.0%). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Canada Revenue Agency, Last year tax rates and income brackets (2025) (Section "Alberta rate: 2025" (8% on $0 to $60,000)). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Canada Revenue Agency, CPP contribution rates, maximums and exemptions (Table "CPP contribution rates, maximums and exemptions", 2026 row (maximum pensionable earnings, basic exemption, maximum contributory earnings, rate, employee and employer maximum, self-employed maximum)). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Canada Revenue Agency, Second additional CPP (CPP2) contribution rates and maximums (Table "CPP2 contribution rates and maximums", 2026 row (additional maximum pensionable earnings, rate, employee and employer maximum, self-employed maximum)). Checked September 28, 2026.
  • Canada Revenue Agency, EI premium rates and maximums (Table "EI premium rates and maximums", 2026 federal row (maximum annual insurable earnings, rate, employee and employer maximums); table legend for Rate: "The employer's premium will be 1.4 times this amount."). Checked September 28, 2026.

Example: $75,000 Income

Federal tax: $8,259

Alberta tax: $4,010

CPP contributions: $4,246

EI premiums: $1,123

Total: $17,639 (23.5% effective rate)

These calculations match the CRA's official payroll formulas. Your actual tax may vary based on individual deductions, credits, and circumstances.

How Your Tax Dollars Are Allocated

Your income tax is split across each government's spending plan, line by line.

Allocation Method

Your federal income tax is split across every line of Ottawa's 2026-27 expense plan (Spring Economic Update 2026) in proportion to its share of total expenses. Your Alberta income tax is split the same way across Alberta's 2026-27 budget by ministry (Budget 2026).

CPP contributions and EI premiums are shown separately and never spread over federal programs. A “borrowed on your behalf” line applies the share of federal spending that Ottawa borrows to your federal income tax. Every budget line and its source is on the federal spending page.

Defence: the military money

NATO's count of Canada's defence spending is the count Ottawa reports to NATO, on the definition every ally agrees, and National Defence puts it this way: “National Defence follows guidelines established by NATO and agreed to by Allies to ensure a common approach to defining defence expenditures.ReceiptNational Defence follows guidelines established by NATO and agreed to by Allies to ensure a common approach to defining defence expenditures.National Defence's briefing note for the Senate defence committee on how it counts defence spending for NATOActual · 2026-04-27SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocumentAppearance Before the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs (SECD): Mandate, Priorities, and NATO 2% - 27 April 2026WhereKey Issues, "North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Investment Pledge", response "If pressed on financial contributions by the Canadian Coast Guard to the NATO spending target"PublishedAugust 21, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.quote.dnd_nato_guidelines.2026-04-27” We show it labelled as Ottawa's, beside the military money: National Defence's own spending for the same year, on the Estimates basis, without the Canadian Coast Guard. The Coast Guard is a civilian agency that joined National Defence in September 2025ReceiptOn September 2, 2025, the CCG was transferred to the Department of National Defence as a civilian Special Operating Agency through an Order in Council.National Defence on the Canadian Coast Guard's transfer into the departmentActual · 2025-09-02SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocumentIntegration of the Canadian Coast GuardWhereKey Issues, "Transfer of the Canadian Coast Guard through an Order in Council"PublishedApril 10, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.quote.dnd_ccg_transfer.2025-09-02. Its two core responsibilities, Marine Navigation and Marine Operations and Response, come out; its share of the department's internal services is not published separately, so it stays in. For 2026-27, planned spending of Receipt$51,703,553,000National Defence's planned spending, 2026-27, including the Coast GuardForecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Total" row; also the Highlights: "total planned spending (including internal services) for DND/CAF is $51,703,553,000"PublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourcePlanned spending, including the Canadian Coast Guard, which joined National Defence on September 2, 2025.All sourcesfederal.defence.dnd_planned_spending.fy2026-27 less Receipt$3,960,431,723Canadian Coast Guard inside National Defence, 2026-27 planned spendingForecast · FY2026-27How we got itMarine Navigation + Marine Operations and ResponseInputsfederal.defence.ccg_marine_navigation.fy2026-27, federal.defence.ccg_marine_operations.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe Coast Guard's two core responsibilities in National Defence's Departmental Plan. Its share of the department's internal services is not shown separately, so it stays in the military money.All sourcesfederal.defence.ccg_spending.fy2026-27 for the Coast Guard makes Receipt$47,743,121,277The military money: National Defence's 2026-27 planned spending without the Coast GuardForecast · FY2026-27How we got itNational Defence's total − the Canadian Coast Guard's core responsibilitiesInputsfederal.defence.dnd_planned_spending.fy2026-27, federal.defence.ccg_spending.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Total" row; also the Highlights: "total planned spending (including internal services) for DND/CAF is $51,703,553,000"PublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.military_spending.fy2026-27. For 2024-25, before the Coast Guard moved, it is the department's actual spending, Receipt$33,924,795,251National Defence's actual spending, 2024-25 (Departmental Results Report)Actual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocumentDepartmental Results Report 2024-25 (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WhereHighlights for the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces in 2024-25, "Total actual spending (including internal services)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe department's own spending on the Estimates basis, the military money for 2024-25. The Coast Guard was still part of Fisheries and Oceans that year. The Public Accounts expense figure (federal.defence.dnd_expenses.fy2024-25) is the accrual basis.All sourcesfederal.defence.dnd_actual_spending.fy2024-25.

The bridge is NATO's count, Receipt$71,517,000,000NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2026e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNATO estimate. NATO counts spending by all departments that meets its definition, not only National Defence.All sourcesfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2026-27 for 2026-27, less the military money: Receipt$23,773,878,723NATO's count of Canada's defence spending above the military money, 2026-27Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itNATO's count as Ottawa reports it − the military moneyInputsfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2026-27, federal.defence.military_spending.fy2026-27SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2026e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Total" row; also the Highlights: "total planned spending (including internal services) for DND/CAF is $51,703,553,000"PublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.2: Planned three-year spending on core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), 2026-27 column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2026-27. It holds what NATO's definition admits beyond the military money: other departments' defence spending, military pensionsReceiptRetirement pensions payments made directly by the government to retired military and civilian employees of military departments and for active personnel is included in the NATO defence expenditure definition.NATO's definition of defence expenditure, on pensionsActual · 2026SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence expenditures and NATO’s 5% commitmentWhereSection "What counts as NATO defence expenditure?"CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.quote.nato_pensions.2026 and whatever part of the Coast Guard the count takes in, plus any difference between the two bases. No source splits the gap into those parts, so we give it as one number. Ottawa publishes no department-by-department amounts. National Defence names some departments: “This includes Veterans Affairs Canada, Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, Global Affairs Canada, Shared Services Canada, and others that cannot be disclosed publicly.ReceiptThis includes Veterans Affairs Canada, Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, Global Affairs Canada, Shared Services Canada, and others that cannot be disclosed publicly.National Defence's briefing note for the Senate defence committee, on the other departments in Canada's NATO countActual · 2026-04-27SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocumentAppearance Before the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs (SECD): Mandate, Priorities, and NATO 2% - 27 April 2026WhereKey Issues, "Other Government Departments and Agencies’ Contributions to the NATO Investment Pledge", after "Eligible funding from other government departments also contributes to Canada's defence expenditures."PublishedAugust 21, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.quote.dnd_other_departments.2026-04-27” For 2025-26 the Parliamentary Budget Officer put the other departments' planned defence spending at Receipt$14,600,000,000Defence spending planned outside National Defence (other government departments), 2025-26, per the PBOForecast · FY2025-26SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentSupplementary Estimates (A) and Defence Spending (BLOG-2526-003)WhereExpenditures section: "This new total amount of planned defence spending is divided as $48.1 billion under DND and $14.6 billion under OGDs"PublishedJune 16, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe PBO adds that "this division may be updated as plans mature". No department-by-department amounts are published.All sourcesfederal.defence.ogd_planned_pbo.fy2025-26 in all.

NATO's count is NATO's estimate on its own definition, and the department's figures are on the Estimates basis, so the bridge joins two bases. Not all of the military money goes to Canada's own forces: the June 2025 top-up gave National Defence Receipt$2,000,000,000Military aid to Ukraine and defence partnerships in National Defence's June 2025 top-up, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentSupplementary Estimates (A) and Defence Spending (BLOG-2526-003)WhereExpenditures section, list under "The $8.2 billion in spending authorities by DND includes": "$2.0 billion for military aid to Ukraine and to expand defence partnerships" (read in full on the page; the first pass shortened it to "Ukraine and defence partnerships")PublishedJune 16, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSpending authorities sought in Supplementary Estimates (A) 2025-26. The money sits inside National Defence's own spending, not in other departments.All sourcesfederal.defence.dnd_topup_ukraine_partnerships.fy2025-26 for military aid to Ukraine and defence partnerships in 2025-26.

How Your Debt Share Is Calculated

Federal net debt is divided equally among all Canadians.

Per-person share

Net debt ($1.52 trillionReceipt$1,556,000,000,000Federal net debt, March 31, 2027 (Spring Economic Update projection)Forecast · 2027-03-31SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.7 Summary Statement of Transactions, Financial Position, "Net debt" row, 2026-2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceTotal liabilities minus financial assets. It does not subtract non-financial assets (buildings, equipment, land), so it is larger than the accumulated deficit.All sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.2027-03-31) ÷ Population (41.8M, July 1, 2026Receipt41,798,407Population of Canada, July 1, 2026Preliminary · 2026-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePreliminary postcensal estimate. Statistics Canada revised its population estimates back to July 2021 on September 23, 2026 (new method for non-permanent residents).All sourcespopulation.canada.2026-07-01) = $36,300 per person

Per-taxpayer share

Net debt ÷ Taxable returns (22.6M, 2024 tax yearReceipt22,569,834Taxable individual income tax returns (returns with tax payable), Canada, 2024 tax yearActual · 2024SourceCanada Revenue AgencyDocumentIndividual Income Tax Return Statistics (2024 tax year)WhereTable 1: General statement by province and territory of taxation, "Canada", "Taxable returns", Number of returnsPublishedMay 1, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReturns with income tax payable.All sourcespopulation.canada.taxable_returns.2024) = $67,200 per person who paid income tax

Which debt measure?

We lead with net debt: everything Ottawa owes minus its financial assets, such as cash, loans and investments. It doesn't subtract roads, buildings and land, which will never be sold to repay lenders. Ottawa's own headline, “federal debt” (the accumulated deficit), does subtract them, so it is smaller: Receipt$1,266,484,000,000Federal accumulated deficit ("federal debt"), March 31, 2025Actual · 2025-03-31SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2024-2025WhereTable 6 Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit), "Federal debt at end of year", 2024-25 (millions of dollars); also Tables 2 and 7PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFinance Canada's "federal debt": total liabilities minus all assets, financial and non-financial. It equals net debt minus non-financial assets such as buildings, equipment and land.All sourcesdebt.federal.accumulated_deficit.2025-03-31 at the last audit (March 31, 2025), when net debt was Receipt$1,393,600,000,000Federal net debt, March 31, 2025Actual · 2025-03-31SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2024-2025WhereTable 7 Outstanding Debt at Year-End, "Net debt", 2024-25 (billions of dollars)PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceTotal liabilities minus financial assets. It does not subtract non-financial assets (buildings, equipment, land), so it is larger than the accumulated deficit.All sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.2025-03-31. Neither is all Ottawa owed: before any asset comes off, its total liabilities were Receipt$2,182,300,000,000Federal total liabilities, March 31, 2025Actual · 2025-03-31SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2024-2025WhereTable 7 Outstanding Debt at Year-End, "Total liabilities", 2024-25 (billions of dollars)PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.federal.total_liabilities.2025-03-31. We show each, labelled, and never mix them in one figure.

How We Count the Deficit

Three measures for every year: the promise, Ottawa's figure, and the deficit counted in full.

The promise

For each year, the smallest deficit Ottawa forecast before the year began, in the budgets and fall statements from Budget 2016 on. Budget 2016 was the first budget of the Liberal governments that have run every year since; earlier forecasts were the previous government's plans. We take the padding out. Budget 2016 cut the private-sector forecast for nominal GDP by Receipt$40,000,000,000Budget 2016's cut to the private-sector forecast for nominal GDP, each year from 2016 to 2020, for fiscal planningForecast · 2016 to 2020SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2016: Growing the Middle ClassWhereOverview, "Outstanding Risks to the Economic Outlook": "for fiscal planning purposes, the Government has judged it appropriate to adjust downwards the private sector forecast for nominal GDP by $40 billion per year for 2016 through 2020"PublishedMarch 22, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceBudget 2016 gives the risks behind the cut: oil at about $25 a barrel in 2016 rather than $40, and real growth of 1.0 per cent rather than 1.4 per cent.All sourcesforecasts.gdp_adjustment.budget-2016 a year “for fiscal planning purposes”, which added about Receipt$6,000,000,000Budget 2016's forecast adjustment: the yearly amount its cut to the economic outlook added to each forecast deficit, 2016-17 to 2020-21Forecast · FY2016-17 to FY2020-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2016: Growing the Middle ClassWhereOverview, "Outstanding Risks to the Economic Outlook": "This forecast adjustment translates into a fiscal impact of approximately $6 billion per year in 2016–17 and over each of the next four years."PublishedMarch 22, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe 2016 Fall Economic Statement prints it as 6.0 a year (Annex 1, Table A1.2, row "Forecast adjustment from Budget 2016") and restates Budget 2016's balances without it.All sourcesforecasts.forecast_adjustment.budget-2016 a year to each deficit it forecast. Budget 2016 printed its balances only with that cushion; the 2016 Fall Economic Statement restates them without it, and we use the restatement. Budgets 2017 to 2019 and the fall statements of those years each subtracted a smaller “adjustment for risk” and print their balance before it, and we use that. A later restatement is used only where a document printed no balance without its padding. So a cushion that releases never counts as beating the forecast.Receipt-$8,600,000,000The smallest federal deficit Ottawa forecast for each year before the year began, with the padding taken out, 2016-17 to 2024-25 (negative = deficit)Forecast · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2019: Investing in the Middle ClassWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement and Investments Included in Budget 2019), row "Budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2023–2024 columnPublishedMarch 19, 2019CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2016WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2016), row "Budget 2016 budgetary balance (without forecast adjustment)", 2016–2017 columnPublishedNovember 1, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2016WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2016), row "Budget 2016 budgetary balance (without forecast adjustment)", 2017–2018 columnPublishedNovember 1, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2018: Equality + Growth: A Strong Middle ClassWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since the 2017 Fall Economic Statement and Investments Included in Budget 2018), row "Budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2018–2019 columnPublishedFebruary 27, 2018CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2016WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2016), row "Budget 2016 budgetary balance (without forecast adjustment)", 2019–2020 columnPublishedNovember 1, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2016WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2016), row "Budget 2016 budgetary balance (without forecast adjustment)", 2020–2021 columnPublishedNovember 1, 2016CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2018: Equality + Growth: A Strong Middle ClassWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since the 2017 Fall Economic Statement and Investments Included in Budget 2018), row "Budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2021–2022 columnPublishedFebruary 27, 2018CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2019: Investing in the Middle ClassWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement and Investments Included in Budget 2019), row "Budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2022–2023 columnPublishedMarch 19, 2019CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Update 2019WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2019), row "Final budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2019CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceFor each fiscal year, the least negative budgetary balance forecast in any budget, fall statement or update published before the year began, from Budget 2016 on, with the document's padding taken out (S-072). Budget 2016 cut the private-sector forecast for nominal GDP by $40 billion a year "for fiscal planning purposes", which it said "translates into a fiscal impact of approximately $6 billion per year"; the 2016 Fall Economic Statement restates Budget 2016's balance without that adjustment. Budgets 2017 to 2019 and the updates of 2017 to 2019 each subtracted an "adjustment for risk" of up to $3.0 billion a year and print the balance before it; that balance is used. A later document's restatement of an earlier forecast is used only where the original printed no balance without its padding, as for Budget 2016; elsewhere a restatement in a later table is not a new forecast. Budget 2016 is the first budget of the Liberal governments that have run every year since. Earlier budgets and updates are left out because they were the previous government's plans. That includes the November 2015 update, published by the new government three weeks after it took office: it projected the previous government's plan and says of its projections, "They do not include any measures adopted by this Government" (Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections 2015, chapter 1, https://www.budget.canada.ca/efp-peb/2015/pub/chap01-en.html). Each point carries its own document. From 2025-26 on, the same rule picks the promise from that year's series of projections (forecasts.balance_projections); the documents it picks carry no padding.All sourcesforecasts.balance_lowest_before_year.canada

Ottawa's figure

The budgetary balance, as Ottawa reports it: audited years from the Fiscal Reference TablesReceipt-$36,348,000,000Federal budgetary balance (negative = deficit)Actual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRestated series: later accounting changes are applied to earlier years, so early values differ from those first published.All sourcesseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada, the year just ended from the Fiscal Monitor, which is preliminaryReceipt-$55,277,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2025-26, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Preliminary · 2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUnaudited result before year-end adjustments. The audited figure comes with the Public Accounts and Annual Financial Report 2025-26.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29, and the year under way from the Spring Economic UpdateReceipt-$65,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28. By Ottawa's rules, loans and investments are assets meant to come back, and buildings and equipment count as they wear out, so neither shows in this figure when the cash goes out.

Counted in full

The financial requirement: the cash Ottawa had to borrow. It is the budgetary balance plus the non-budgetary transactions: loans, investments and advances, mostly to Crown corporations; spending on buildings and equipment beyond the depreciation already counted; and the flows through pension and other accounts, which can run either way. In some years those accounts bring cash in, and the financial requirement is smaller than Ottawa's figure; the chart shows those years as they are. Sources: the Fiscal Reference TablesReceipt-$130,015,000,000Federal financial requirement: the cash Ottawa had to borrow in the year (negative = borrowing)Actual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Financial requirement (-)/source"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions: loans, investments and advances, capital spending on non-financial assets, pensions and other accounts, and accruals. A negative value is the amount Ottawa had to raise by borrowing; a positive value is a source of funds. Restated series, like the budgetary balance.All sourcesseries.federal_financial_requirement.canada, the Fiscal MonitorReceipt-$103,689,000,000Federal financial requirement for 2025-26, preliminary: the cash Ottawa had to borrow (negative = borrowing)Preliminary · FY2025-26SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Financial source/requirement", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceUnaudited result before year-end adjustments, from the same table as the preliminary budgetary balance (forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26): the balance plus non-budgetary transactions. The audited figure comes with the Public Accounts 2025-26.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.fiscal-monitor-2026-03 and the Spring Economic UpdateReceipt-$133,400,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27. For 2026-27, Ottawa's Receipt-$65,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28 plus Receipt-$68,100,000,000Federal non-budgetary transactions, 2026-27 (negative = cash out)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Total non-budgetary transactions", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceCash that leaves outside the budgetary balance: loans and investments, capital spending, and accounts that net against them. Added to the budgetary balance, it gives the financial requirement.All sourcesforecasts.nonbudgetary_total.fy2026-27 of non-budgetary transactions makes Receipt-$133,400,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27.

An honest scale

At Receipt-$327,729,000,000Federal budgetary balance (negative = deficit)Actual · FY2020-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRestated series: later accounting changes are applied to earlier years, so early values differ from those first published.All sourcesseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2020-21, 2020-21 would flatten every other year, so its bars are drawn broken and its values are printed beside them.

How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected

The debt chart shows the IMF's record and projection beside our own stress scenario, and labels which is which.

Which Debt Measure Is Used

The chart uses general government gross debt: federal, provincial-territorial and local governments plus the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans, including government employee pension liabilities. It is the internationally comparable measure the IMF, OECD and World Bank report. The IMF estimates it at Receipt113.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2025 of GDP in 2025 and projects Receipt103.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Forecast · 2031SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2031 by 2031. Our stress scenario, drawn beside it, reaches drained.ca scenarioReceipt150.0%drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDPdrained.ca scenario · 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOur own stress projection, not an official forecast. It starts from the IMF's 2025 estimate and assumes government deficits grow 15% to 20% a year while nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3% a year, a recession or trade-war case. The IMF projects a decline over the same years.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.drained_scenario@2035 by 2035.

Why Not Ottawa's “Federal Debt”?

Ottawa's headline “federal debt” is the accumulated deficit: total liabilities minus financial and non-financial assets (net debt minus non-financial assets). It was Receipt41.2%Federal debt (accumulated deficit) as a share of GDPActual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 2, Fiscal transactions (per cent of GDP), column "Accumulated deficit"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe Spring Economic Update 2026 restates 2024-25 at 40.7% after Statistics Canada revised GDP.All sourcesseries.federal_debt_to_gdp.canada@FY2024-25 of GDP in 2024-25. That figure understates the burden because (1) it nets out assets such as buildings and land that will never be sold to repay anyone, (2) it leaves out provincial debt, and (3) other countries do not report it, so it cannot be compared.

Data Sources

The Projection Approach

The scenario does not use government or PBO deficit forecasts. Ottawa's multi-year projections have not held: its lowest forecast of the 2026-27 deficit was $3.4BReceipt-$3,400,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, in the Fall Economic Statement 2022, and the Spring Economic Update 2026 projects $65.3BReceipt-$65,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28. Instead, the scenario is built on observed deficit behaviour.

What the Deficits Actually Did

  • • 2022-23 federal deficit: $35.3BReceipt-$35,322,000,000Federal budgetary balance (negative = deficit)Actual · FY2022-23SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRestated series: later accounting changes are applied to earlier years, so early values differ from those first published.All sourcesseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23 (actual)
  • • 2023-24: $61.9BReceipt-$61,876,000,000Federal budgetary balance (negative = deficit)Actual · FY2023-24SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRestated series: later accounting changes are applied to earlier years, so early values differ from those first published.All sourcesseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24 (actual), up 75%Receipt75.2%Change in the federal deficit, 2022-23 to 2023-24Actual · FY2023-24How we got itdeficit 2023-24 ÷ deficit 2022-23 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change.fy2023-24
  • • 2024-25: $36.3BReceipt-$36,348,000,000Federal budgetary balance (negative = deficit)Actual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRestated series: later accounting changes are applied to earlier years, so early values differ from those first published.All sourcesseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25 (actual), down 41%Receipt-41.3%Change in the federal deficit, 2023-24 to 2024-25Actual · FY2024-25How we got itdeficit 2024-25 ÷ deficit 2023-24 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change.fy2024-25. The 2024 Fall Economic Statement had projected $48.3BReceipt-$48,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2024-25, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2024-12-16SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2024 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.6 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "2024 Fall Economic Statement budgetary balance", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2024-25@2024-12-16, a drop of 22%Receipt-21.9%Change in the federal deficit, 2023-24 to 2024-25, as projected in December 2024Forecast · FY2024-25How we got itdeficit projected for 2024-25 in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement ÷ deficit 2023-24 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2024-25@2024-12-16SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2024 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.6 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "2024 Fall Economic Statement budgetary balance", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change_fes2024.fy2024-25.
  • • 2025-26: $66.9BReceipt-$66,900,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2025-26, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Estimate · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28 forecast in the Spring Economic Update 2026, up 84%Receipt84.1%Change in the federal deficit, 2024-25 to 2025-26, Spring Economic Update 2026Estimate · FY2025-26How we got itdeficit 2025-26 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ deficit 2024-25 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change_seu2026.fy2025-26. Preliminary results show $55.3BReceipt-$55,277,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2025-26, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Preliminary · 2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUnaudited result before year-end adjustments. The audited figure comes with the Public Accounts and Annual Financial Report 2025-26.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29, up 52%Receipt52.1%Change in the federal deficit, 2024-25 to 2025-26, preliminary resultsPreliminary · FY2025-26How we got itpreliminary deficit 2025-26 ÷ deficit 2024-25 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change_prelim.fy2025-26. Counted in full, the spring update has Ottawa borrowing Receipt-$105,300,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Estimate · FY2025-26SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2025-26 that year.
  • • Provinces combined: a deficit of 1.1%Receipt-1.1%Ten provinces combined, budget balance as a share of GDP (negative = deficit)Estimate · FY2025-26SourceRBC EconomicsDocumentFiscal roundup: Provinces deepen deficit track ahead of federal updateWhereSummary and section "Collective provincial deficit jumped this budget round" (combined provincial balance, contingencies removed)PublishedApril 24, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis by RBC Economics of the provinces' 2026 budgets, with reserves and contingencies removed so provinces are comparable. Not an official combined figure.All sourcesforecasts.provincial_balance_to_gdp.all_provinces@FY2025-26 of GDP in 2025-26, roughly $36BReceipt-$35,697,827,000Ten provinces combined, approximate budget balance in dollars, 2025-26 (negative = deficit)Estimate · FY2025-26How we got itRBC's combined provincial balance as a share of GDP × nominal GDP, 2025 (approximate)Inputsforecasts.provincial_balance_to_gdp.all_provinces@FY2025-26, series.nominal_gdp.canada@2025SourceRBC EconomicsDocumentFiscal roundup: Provinces deepen deficit track ahead of federal updateWhereSummary and section "Collective provincial deficit jumped this budget round" (combined provincial balance, contingencies removed)PublishedApril 24, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0104-01, Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterlyWhereVector v62305783, GDP at market prices, current prices, seasonally adjusted at annual rates; 2025 = average of the four quarters (release of 2026-08-28)PublishedAugust 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceApproximate: applies the fiscal-year share of GDP to calendar-year 2025 GDP.All sourcesforecasts.provincial_deficit_dollars.fy2025-26, and the same share in 2026-27 (RBC Economics analysis of provincial budgets)

Taken together, RBC Economics put the combined federal and provincial deficit at 3.5%Receipt-3.5%Federal and provincial governments combined, projected budget balance as a share of GDP, 2025-26 (negative = deficit)Forecast · FY2025-26SourceRBC EconomicsDocumentFiscal roundup: Provinces deepen deficit track ahead of federal updateWhereSection "Full picture to come with feds and Newfoundland": fall 2025 projections, no contingenciesPublishedApril 24, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis by RBC Economics based on fall 2025 federal and provincial projections, before the Spring Economic Update 2026 lowered the federal 2025-26 forecast.All sourcesforecasts.combined_balance_to_gdp_rbc.fy2025-26 of GDP for 2025-26, on fall 2025 projections.

Projection Methodology

1. Deficit Trajectory

Deficits grow 15% to 20%drained.ca scenarioReceipt20.0%drained.ca stress scenario: annual growth in government deficits, high enddrained.ca scenario · 2026 to 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn assumption of our stress scenario, chosen as a deliberately adverse case. It is not a forecast.All sourcesseries.scenario_deficit_growth_high.2026-2035 a year. That is below the Receipt23.7%Federal deficit growth, compound annual average, 2022-23 to 2025-26, Spring Economic Update 2026Estimate · FY2022-23 to FY2025-26How we got it(deficit 2025-26 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ deficit 2022-23) ^ (1/3) − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.deficit_growth_avg_seu2026.fy2022-23-to-fy2025-26 a year implied by the government's own spring forecast for 2022-23 to 2025-26 (Receipt16.1%Federal deficit growth, compound annual average, 2022-23 to 2025-26, preliminary resultsPreliminary · FY2022-23 to FY2025-26How we got it(preliminary deficit 2025-26 ÷ deficit 2022-23) ^ (1/3) − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.deficit_growth_avg_prelim.fy2022-23-to-fy2025-26 a year on preliminary results). It accounts for structural spending pressures (healthcare, an aging population, debt interest).

2. GDP Growth

The model assumes nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3%drained.ca scenarioReceipt3.0%drained.ca stress scenario: annual nominal GDP growth, high enddrained.ca scenario · 2026 to 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn assumption of our stress scenario, chosen as a deliberately adverse case. It is not a forecast.All sourcesseries.scenario_gdp_growth_high.2026-2035 a year. This is a deliberate stress assumption for a prolonged slump, such as a recession or a trade war, not the long-term average: nominal GDP grew Receipt4.6%Canada, nominal GDP growth, compound annual average, 2000 to 2024Actual · 2000 to 2024How we got it(nominal GDP 2024 ÷ nominal GDP 1999) ^ (1/25) − 1Inputsseries.nominal_gdp.canada@1999, series.nominal_gdp.canada@2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0222-01, Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annualWhereCanada, vector v62787312, GDP at market prices, current prices (release of 2025-11-06)PublishedNovember 6, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesseries.nominal_gdp_growth_avg.2000-2024 a year on average from 2000 to 2024 (Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0222-01). Slower growth makes the same debt weigh more.

3. Debt-to-GDP Calculation

Each year: New Debt = Previous Debt + Deficit. Debt-to-GDP = Accumulated Debt / Nominal GDP.

Why Not Government Forecasts?

Government budget projections consistently show deficits shrinking over the forecast horizon. The record:

  • • Out-year projections slide. The Fall Economic Statement 2022 put the 2026-27 deficit at $3.4BReceipt-$3,400,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, the lowest forecast Ottawa made for that year. The Spring Economic Update 2026 puts it at $65.3BReceipt-$65,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28, Receipt1,920.6%The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itdeficit for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ the promise for 2026-27, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.projection_multiple.fy2026-27 times as much.
  • • Budget-year plans miss too. Budget 2023 projected the 2023-24 deficit at $40.1BReceipt-$40,100,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2023-24, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2023-03-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2023: A Made-in-Canada PlanWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2023–2024 columnPublishedMarch 28, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2023-24@2023-03-28. The audited result was $61.9BReceipt-$61,900,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2023-24, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Actual · 2024-12-17SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2023–2024WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2023-24 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedDecember 17, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2023-24@2024-12-17.
  • • Anchors are dropped. The 2023 Fall Economic Statement set this objective: “Maintaining a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 and keeping deficits below 1 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 and future years.”ReceiptMaintaining a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 and keeping deficits below 1 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 and future years.2023 Fall Economic Statement objective: deficits below 1% of GDP from 2026-27Actual · 2023-11-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2023 Fall Economic StatementWhereEconomic and Fiscal Overview, section 3 "Fiscal Outlook", "Canada's Responsible Economic Plan", third of three fiscal objectivesPublishedNovember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe 2024 Fall Economic Statement still showed 0.9% for 2026-27; Budget 2025 projected 2.0% and the Spring Economic Update 2026 1.9%.All sourcesforecasts.anchor.fes-2023-one-percent The Spring Economic Update 2026 projects a 2026-27 deficit of 1.9%Receipt-1.9%Federal budgetary balance as a share of GDP, 2026-27, Spring Economic Update 2026 (negative = deficit)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7, per cent of GDP, row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.budgetary_balance_to_gdp_seu2026.fy2026-27 of GDP.
  • • Lowball, then beat. The 2024-25 deficit was projected at $8.6BReceipt-$8,600,000,000The smallest federal deficit Ottawa forecast for each year before the year began, with the padding taken out, 2016-17 to 2024-25 (negative = deficit)Forecast · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Update 2019WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2019), row "Final budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2019CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe 2019 update's forecast before its $3.0 billion adjustment for risk. It printed a deficit of $11.6 billion.All sourcesforecasts.balance_lowest_before_year.canada@FY2024-25 in December 2019, with that update's adjustment for risk taken out, and $48.3BReceipt-$48,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2024-25, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2024-12-16SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2024 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.6 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "2024 Fall Economic Statement budgetary balance", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2024-25@2024-12-16 in December 2024. It came in at $36.3BReceipt-$36,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2024-25, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Actual · 2025-11-07SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2024–2025WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2024-25 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2024-25@2025-11-07: below the forecasts that had been raised along the way, but Receipt422.1%The audited 2024-25 deficit as Ottawa counts it, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2024-25How we got itaudited 2024-25 budgetary balance ÷ the promise for 2024-25, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began, without its adjustment for riskInputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2024-25@2025-11-07, forecasts.balance_lowest_before_year.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2024–2025WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2024-25 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Update 2019WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.2 (Economic and Fiscal Developments Since Budget 2019), row "Final budgetary balance", the line above "Adjustment for risk", 2024–2025 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2019CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.result_multiple.fy2024-25 times the December 2019 forecast without its padding. In-year results often beat the latest forecast after it has been raised.

Showing realistic trajectories based on actual behavior is more honest than repeating optimistic forecasts that never materialize.

The principle: Base projections on observed behavior, not promised behavior. The federal deficit went up 75%Receipt75.2%Change in the federal deficit, 2022-23 to 2023-24Actual · FY2023-24How we got itdeficit 2023-24 ÷ deficit 2022-23 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change.fy2023-24 in 2023-24, down 41%Receipt-41.3%Change in the federal deficit, 2023-24 to 2024-25Actual · FY2024-25How we got itdeficit 2024-25 ÷ deficit 2023-24 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change.fy2024-25 in 2024-25, and the government's own spring forecast has it up 84%Receipt84.1%Change in the federal deficit, 2024-25 to 2025-26, Spring Economic Update 2026Estimate · FY2025-26How we got itdeficit 2025-26 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ deficit 2024-25 − 1Inputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.balance_change_seu2026.fy2025-26 in 2025-26. With the 2026-27 deficit now projected at Receipt1,920.6%The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itdeficit for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ the promise for 2026-27, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.projection_multiple.fy2026-27 times the lowest forecast Ottawa made for it, assuming sudden fiscal discipline is wishful thinking.

How We Measure the Gap Between Ottawa and Alberta

What Ottawa collects in Alberta, what it spends here, and why we don't call the difference Equalization.

In 2024 Ottawa collected Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024 in federal revenue in Alberta and spent Receipt$54,354,000,000Federal government spending in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments expenditure; 2024 (vector v107650120, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_spending.2024 here. The Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024 difference is about Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024 per Albertan (Statistics Canada). It counts every federal tax, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent in Alberta. It is not a payment to any province.

Revenue counts where it is collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending where it is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta, such as defence and tax administration, count elsewhere.

Fairness Alberta puts the 2000-2023 total at Receipt$544,000,000,000Albertans' net contribution to the rest of Canada, 2000 to 2023 (Fairness Alberta's adjusted estimate)Estimate · 2000 to 2023SourceFairness AlbertaDocumentFiscal FairnessWhereIntroductory note: "From 2000-2023, the adjusted balance from Albertans to the rest of Canada was $544 billion" (citing Finances of the Nation, Federal Fiscal Balances)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis by an advocacy group, not an official statistic. It uses Finances of the Nation's "adjusted" balance, which includes the Canada Pension Plan and credits Albertans with a per-person share of federal borrowing, so it is larger than federal revenue minus federal spending. Statistics Canada's unadjusted figures, which exclude the CPP, are listed separately.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_contribution_fairness_alberta.2000-2023. That is an adjusted estimate: it counts CPP contributions, uses constant dollars and credits Albertans with a share of Ottawa's borrowing.

Why we don't say Alberta pays Quebec

Equalization is paid from general federal revenue, and provinces pay nothing into it (Finance Canada). We show Albertans' share of its cost instead: Albertans generate about Receipt15.1%Alberta's share of federal government revenue, 2024Actual · 2024How we got itfederal revenue collected in Alberta ÷ federal revenue collected in CanadaInputstransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024, transfers.canada.federal_revenue.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue_share.2024 of federal revenue, so their share of Equalization's Receipt$27,160,000,000Equalization, total payments, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEqualization is paid by the federal government from its general revenues; provincial governments pay nothing into it (Finance Canada, Equalization program).All sourcestransfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27 cost in 2026-27 is about Receipt$4,093,172,973Albertans' implied share of the cost of Equalization, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got ittotal Equalization × Alberta's share of federal revenue (2024)Inputstransfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27, transfers.alberta.federal_revenue_share.2024SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate. Ottawa pays Equalization from general revenue and the Alberta government pays nothing into it; this apportions the cost by where federal revenue is raised. It mixes a 2024 revenue share with the 2026-27 program.All sourcestransfers.equalization.alberta_implied_cost.fy2026-27, or Receipt$802Albertans' implied share of the cost of Equalization per Albertan, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itAlbertans' implied share of Equalization ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2026Inputstransfers.equalization.alberta_implied_cost.fy2026-27, population.alberta.2026-07-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate; see the implied share above for the method.All sourcestransfers.equalization.alberta_implied_cost_per_person.fy2026-27 per Albertan, against Receipt$650Cost of Equalization per Canadian, 2026-27Preliminary · FY2026-27How we got ittotal Equalization ÷ population of Canada on July 1, 2026Inputstransfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27, population.canada.2026-07-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.per_canadian.fy2026-27 for the average Canadian.

How We Count Money Gone

The waste ledger: money Ottawa's own books and audits say is gone, year by year, with nothing counted twice.

The ledger runs by federal fiscal year from 2015-16 to 2024-25, the latest year the Public Accounts reach. In 2024-25 it comes to Receipt$8,085,566,933Money gone from Ottawa's books, 2024-25Actual · FY2024-25How we got itdebts written off, forgiven and waived + losses booked by Crown corporationsInputsaccountability.waste_ledger.written_off@FY2024-25, accountability.waste_ledger.crown_losses.fy2024-25SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 2: debts, obligations and claims written off, forgiven and waived (open data file)Wherecreancerenon-debtforgive.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: approval codes A (write-off), B (forgiveness) and D (waiver), summed by fiscal year; minister, Parliament and Governor in Council amounts added (scripts/data/waste-ledger-writeoffs.mjs)CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceCanada Post CorporationDocumentCanada Post reports loss before tax for 2024 (news release)WhereGroup of Companies: "recorded a loss before tax of $665 million, compared to a loss before tax of $529 million the previous year"PublishedMay 28, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Consolidated Financial Statements, December 31, 2024WhereConsolidated statement of income: "Income before income taxes" 5 (2024), millions of dollarsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Consolidated Financial Statements, December 31, 2024WhereConsolidated statement of income: "Equity allowance for funds used during construction (Note 7)" 462 (2024), millions of dollars; note 7: "cessation in the capitalization of equity AFUDC" on May 1, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe waste ledger. It does not add the allowance for loans not expected back (that would count write-offs twice), money at risk, or public debt charges.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.total.fy2024-25. It adds three lines that do not overlap:

  1. Written off, forgiven and waived: the Public Accounts' record of debts, obligations and claims written off, forgiven and waived (Volume III, section 2), from its open data file. We add approval codes A (write-offs), B (forgiveness) and D (waivers), each row's minister, Parliament and Governor in Council amounts, by fiscal year, with a script anyone can rerun (scripts/data/waste-ledger-writeoffs.mjs). Remissions (code C) are left out, because most of the printed remissions total is GST remitted to federal departments: Ottawa paying itself. 2024-25: Receipt$6,963,566,933Debts Ottawa wrote off, forgave and waived, by fiscal yearActual · FY2024-25SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 2: debts, obligations and claims written off, forgiven and waived (open data file)Wherecreancerenon-debtforgive.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: approval codes A (write-off), B (forgiveness) and D (waiver), summed by fiscal year; minister, Parliament and Governor in Council amounts added (scripts/data/waste-ledger-writeoffs.mjs)CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceMostly tax debts the Canada Revenue Agency judged it could not collect, plus loans forgiven (CEBA in 2023-24) and taxes waived. Remissions (code C) are left out: most of the printed remissions total is GST remitted to federal departments, Ottawa paying itself.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.written_off@FY2024-25. Each write-off counts in the year it was booked. CEBA shows why that matters: Ottawa booked Receipt$13,085,000,000CEBA forgiveness Ottawa expected and expensed when the loans went out, 2020-21Actual · FY2020-21SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada 2021, Volume IWhereSection 2, note 5(f) other transfer payments: "$13,085 million for the CEBA loan incentive"; note 16: "Amounts expected to be forgiven have been reported in other transfer payments expenses"CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe cost of the forgiveness reached Ottawa's deficit in 2020-21. The ledger counts the write-off when it was booked, in 2023-24, and never both.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.ceba_incentive_expensed.fy2020-21 in 2020-21 for the forgiveness it expected on loans made by March 31, 2021, and wrote off Receipt$10,222,997,569CEBA loans forgiven, 2023-24Actual · FY2023-24SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 2: debts, obligations and claims written off, forgiven and waived (open data file)Wherecreancerenon-debtforgive.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: approval code B, Export Development Canada (Canada Account), Export Development Act, 2023/2024; minister, Parliament and Governor in Council amounts added (scripts/data/waste-ledger-writeoffs.mjs)CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe Comptroller General identifies the Export Development Act forgiveness as CEBA ("$10.2 billion in 2024"): Treasury Board Secretariat, briefing book for the Public Accounts committee, February 9, 2026, section K.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.ceba_forgiven.fy2023-24 in 2023-24 and Receipt$246,431,393CEBA loans forgiven, 2024-25Actual · FY2024-25SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 2: debts, obligations and claims written off, forgiven and waived (open data file)Wherecreancerenon-debtforgive.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: approval code B, Export Development Canada (Canada Account), Export Development Act, 2024/2025; minister, Parliament and Governor in Council amounts added (scripts/data/waste-ledger-writeoffs.mjs)CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceIdentified as CEBA by the Comptroller General ("$0.2 billion related to the Export Development Act (CEBA)"), Treasury Board Secretariat briefing book, February 9, 2026, section K.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.ceba_forgiven.fy2024-25 in 2024-25. The ledger counts the write-offs, never the earlier expense.
  2. Lost by Crown corporations: two corporations so far, each counted the same way, as its loss before income tax in a year it lost money and nothing in a year it made money. For Canada Post we use the group, Purolator included, because that is what Ottawa owns. For Trans Mountain we take out the equity allowance for funds used during construction (equity AFUDC), a non-cash return it books on the equity Ottawa put in while the pipeline was being built. Its reported income before tax for 2023 was Receipt$14,829,000Trans Mountain Corporation, income (loss) before income taxes as it reports it, by calendar yearActual · 2023SourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Management Report, December 31, 2023WhereResults table, year ended December 31: "Income before income taxes" 14,829 (2023) and 708,073 (2022), thousands of dollarsPublishedMarch 7, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceTrans Mountain's own figure. It includes a non-cash credit, the equity allowance for funds used during construction, which the ledger takes out (accountability.waste_ledger.tmc_equity_afudc). Results for 2018 to 2021 were not checked (the company's statements for those years did not load).All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.tmc_result@2023, its figure; less the Receipt$1,165,361,000Trans Mountain Corporation, equity allowance for funds used during construction (a non-cash credit to income), by calendar yearActual · 2023SourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Management Report, December 31, 2023WhereResults table, year ended December 31: "Equity allowance for funds used during construction" 1,165,361 (2023) and 704,334 (2022), thousands of dollars; "AFUDC contains a cost of borrowed funds component and a return on equity component."PublishedMarch 7, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceA return on the equity invested during construction, booked as other income and added to the cost of the pipeline, which is then depreciated. The cash flow statement takes it out as a non-cash item. It stopped when the expansion entered service on May 1, 2024.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.tmc_equity_afudc@2023 credit, the full measure is a loss of Receipt-$1,150,532,000Trans Mountain's result before income tax without its non-cash equity AFUDC credit, 2023Actual · 2023How we got itTrans Mountain income before income taxes, 2023 − its equity allowance for funds used during construction, 2023Inputsaccountability.waste_ledger.tmc_result@2023, accountability.waste_ledger.tmc_equity_afudc@2023SourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Management Report, December 31, 2023WhereResults table, year ended December 31: "Income before income taxes" 14,829 (2023) and 708,073 (2022), thousands of dollarsPublishedMarch 7, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Management Report, December 31, 2023WhereResults table, year ended December 31: "Equity allowance for funds used during construction" 1,165,361 (2023) and 704,334 (2022), thousands of dollars; "AFUDC contains a cost of borrowed funds component and a return on equity component."PublishedMarch 7, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe full measure beside Trans Mountain’s reported income before tax: the credit is a return it books on the equity Ottawa put in during construction, and no cash comes in.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.tmc_result_full.2023. Its case: the credit is standard accounting for regulated pipelines, added to the pipeline's cost and recovered through tolls designed to earn that cost back with a return. The expanded line's tolls are still interim, so the record does not yet show the credit recovered. Its Receipt$888,098,000Trans Mountain Corporation goodwill written off, 2023Actual · 2023SourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentTrans Mountain Corporation Management Report, December 31, 2023WhereGoodwill Impairment; results table, year ended December 31, 2023: "Goodwill impairment (888,098)" (thousands of dollars)PublishedMarch 7, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe full carrying value of the goodwill from Ottawa's 2018 purchase of the pipeline. Trans Mountain's reason: "primarily a rise in the cost of capital from increased domestic interest rates as well as changes in the timing of the commencement of service of the TMEP and associated costs." Its reported income before tax for 2023 was still a profit, because of the equity AFUDC credit; the net loss after income tax was $208.4 million.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.tmc_goodwill_impairment.2023 goodwill write-off in 2023 is inside these results, not added to them. Trans Mountain's results are counted from 2022 to 2024; 2018 to 2021 are not read yet, so those years count Canada Post alone. We count before income tax because the ledger takes the Crown as one: the federal part of a Crown corporation's income tax is paid to Ottawa, so it loses nothing. Any provincial part of that tax is not counted either way. A calendar year is booked in the federal year that ends the following March, as the Public Accounts consolidate it.
  3. Paid to projects that failed: federal cash paid to a project that has since failed, where a primary record gives it. None does yet, so this line carries no figure. Ottawa paid Northvolt Receipt$0Federal money paid to Northvolt, as of ISED's Question Period note of late 2024Actual · 2024SourceInnovation, Science and Economic Development CanadaDocumentQuestion Period note: Northvolt (ISI-2024-QP-00025)WhereKey messages: "To date no support, in any form, has been disbursed to the company by the Government of Canada."CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe note cites the parent company's Chapter 11 filing of November 21, 2024, so it was written after it; the page shows no date of its own. It does not say why nothing was paid. The Public Accounts' transfer payment files to March 31, 2025 list no payment to Northvolt.All sourcesaccountability.northvolt.federal_disbursed.2024, by a note Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada wrote after the parent company's bankruptcy filing in November 2024; the note does not say why. The Public Accounts list no payment to it through March 2025.

Shown beside the ledger, never added

The allowance for loans and investments Ottawa does not expect back (Public Accounts, Volume I): a stock at each year end, Receipt$44,273,419,805Allowance for loans, investments and advances Ottawa does not expect back, at March 31Actual · FY2024-25SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada 2025, Volume IWhereSection 9, Table 9.1 Loans, investments and advances: Total, Valuation Allowance, March 31, 2025; section 2, note 20 summary by category for March 31, 2024 (millions of dollars)CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceA stock at each year end, not a year's spending. It includes capital subscriptions to international organizations, allowanced in full from the start.All sourcesaccountability.waste_ledger.allowance@FY2024-25 at March 31, 2025. Adding it would count write-offs twice, because a write-off or forgiveness uses up allowance booked in an earlier year.

Money at risk: support committed to battery plants, up to Receipt$52,500,000,000Government support for EV supply-chain investments announced from 2020 to April 2024, federal and provincial, up toEstimate · 2020-10/2032-33SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentTallying Government Support for EV Investment in Canada (BLOG-2425-004)WhereParagraph 2: "PBO estimates total corresponding government support ... to be up to $52.5 billion"PublishedJune 18, 2024CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAn upper bound through 2032-33. Most of it is production subsidy paid only on batteries made and sold; it is not cash paid or lost.All sourcesaccountability.ev_support.pbo_up_to.2024-06-18 from all governments by the Parliamentary Budget Officer's count, with the Receipt$663,827,219Federal cash paid to battery and battery-materials plants, April 2023 to March 2025Actual · 2023-24 to 2024-25How we got itfederal payments to NextStar, Ultium CAM, PowerCo and E-One Moli under the Strategic Innovation Fund + the battery production subsidy paid to a recipient whose name is withheld, 2023-24 and 2024-25Inputsaccountability.ev_battery.nextstar_sif.fy2023-24, accountability.ev_battery.nextstar_sif.fy2024-25, accountability.ev_battery.production_subsidy.fy2024-25, accountability.ev_battery.ultium_cam_sif.fy2023-24, accountability.ev_battery.ultium_cam_sif.fy2024-25, accountability.ev_battery.powerco_sif.fy2024-25, accountability.ev_battery.e_one_moli_sif.fy2023-24SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2023-24Wherept-tp-2024.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Nextstar Energy Inc (Toronto), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2024-25Wherept-tp-2025.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Nextstar Energy Inc (Toronto), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2024-25Wherept-tp-2025.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions to electric vehicle battery manufacturers (recipient name withheld), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2023-24Wherept-tp-2024.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Ultium Cam Limited Partnership (Montréal), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2024-25Wherept-tp-2025.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Ultium Cam Limited Partnership (Montréal), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2024-25Wherept-tp-2025.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Powerco Canada Inc (St Thomas), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2023-24Wherept-tp-2024.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, E One Moli Energy (Canada) Limited (Maple Ridge), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceFrom the Public Accounts transfer payment files. The 2022-23 file lists no payment to these companies. Payments to Umicore Canada Inc are left out: the record does not name their project.All sourcesaccountability.ev_battery.federal_paid.fy2023-24_fy2024-25 Ottawa paid from April 2023 to March 2025 by the Public Accounts' transfer payment files: four named companies and a production subsidy to a recipient whose name is withheld. It is not lost unless a plant fails. Left out: Receipt$57,633,499Strategic Innovation Fund payments to Umicore Canada Inc, project not named, 2023-24 and 2024-25Actual · 2023-24 to 2024-25How we got itStrategic Innovation Fund payments to Umicore Canada Inc, 2023-24 + 2024-25Inputsaccountability.ev_battery.umicore_sif.fy2023-24, accountability.ev_battery.umicore_sif.fy2024-25SourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2023-24Wherept-tp-2024.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Umicore Canada Inc (Toronto), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourcePublic Services and Procurement Canada (Receiver General for Canada)DocumentPublic Accounts of Canada, Volume III, section 6: transfer payments (open data file), 2024-25Wherept-tp-2025.csv, file dated 2025-11-07: Department of Industry, Contributions under the Strategic Innovation Fund, Umicore Canada Inc (Toronto), aggregate paymentsCheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceNot counted as battery-plant money.All sourcesaccountability.ev_battery.umicore_canada_sif.fy2023-24_fy2024-25 of Strategic Innovation Fund payments to Umicore Canada Inc, because the record does not name the project they fund, and the battery-materials agreement on record is with a different Umicore company.

Public debt charges: Receipt$53,410,000,000Federal public debt charges (interest on the debt), 2024-25Actual · FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025, Part 1WhereTable 1 Fiscal transactions, 2024-25 row, "Public debt charges" column (millions of dollars)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.pdc.fy2024-25 in 2024-25, interest on market debt and on pension and benefit obligations. They buy nothing, but they are the cost of past borrowing, not a loss, so the two stand side by side.

The documented file: Receipt$109,759,000,000Documented overruns, failures and improper payments in drained.ca's waste fileEstimate · 2008 to 2026How we got itfrigate overrun + Trans Mountain overrun + COVID benefits to ineligible recipients + CEBA loans to ineligible recipients + cost to clean up Phoenix + SDTC funding to ineligible projectsInputsaccountability.csc.overrun.2008-2022, accountability.tmx.overrun.2013-2024, accountability.covid.ineligible_paid.2026, accountability.ceba.ineligible.2024-12-02, federal.phoenix.cost_to_fix.2025, accountability.sdtc.ineligible_funding.2017-2023SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentThe Life Cycle Cost of the Canadian Surface Combatants — A Fiscal Analysis (RP-2223-016-C)WhereSummary (development and acquisition phases)PublishedOctober 27, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentThe Cost of Canada's Surface CombatantsWhereExecutive Summary, p. 1 (the original 2008 budget, in then-year dollars)PublishedJune 1, 2017CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentTrans Mountain Pipeline – 2024 Report (RP-2425-021-S)WhereSummary (total project cost estimate rose from $21.4 billion to $34.2 billion)PublishedNovember 8, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceKinder MorganDocumentTrans Mountain Files Facilities Expansion Application with the National Energy BoardWhereNews release text ('proposed $5.4 billion project')PublishedDecember 16, 2013CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceCBC NewsDocumentCRA still owed over $5B in COVID-19 benefits sent to ineligible recipientsWhereArticle body (figures the CRA provided to CBC News)PublishedSeptember 18, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Auditor General of CanadaDocumentReport 8—Canada Emergency Business Account (2024 Reports of the Auditor General)WhereAt a GlancePublishedDecember 2, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceThe Canadian Press (published by The Globe and Mail)DocumentFixing Phoenix payroll problems cost Ottawa $5.1-billion, says federal officialWhereParagraph quoting Alex Benay, associate deputy minister, Public Services and Procurement Canada, on the roughly $5.1 billion spent processing the backlog of Phoenix pay errorsPublishedJune 23, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Auditor General of CanadaDocumentReport 6—Sustainable Development Technology Canada (2024 Reports of the Auditor General)WhereAt a Glance; Key facts and findings (8 projects, $51M; 2 Ecosystem projects, $8M)PublishedJune 4, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach item counted once, and only its overrun, failure cost or payments to people and businesses that did not qualify: never whole program costs, contract values, loans repaid, private court orders or cancelled deals.All sourcesaccountability.waste.documented_total.nowReceipt$109,759,000,000Documented overruns, failures and improper payments in drained.ca's waste fileEstimate · 2008 to 2026How we got itfrigate overrun + Trans Mountain overrun + COVID benefits to ineligible recipients + CEBA loans to ineligible recipients + cost to clean up Phoenix + SDTC funding to ineligible projectsInputsaccountability.csc.overrun.2008-2022, accountability.tmx.overrun.2013-2024, accountability.covid.ineligible_paid.2026, accountability.ceba.ineligible.2024-12-02, federal.phoenix.cost_to_fix.2025, accountability.sdtc.ineligible_funding.2017-2023SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentThe Life Cycle Cost of the Canadian Surface Combatants — A Fiscal Analysis (RP-2223-016-C)WhereSummary (development and acquisition phases)PublishedOctober 27, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentThe Cost of Canada's Surface CombatantsWhereExecutive Summary, p. 1 (the original 2008 budget, in then-year dollars)PublishedJune 1, 2017CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentTrans Mountain Pipeline – 2024 Report (RP-2425-021-S)WhereSummary (total project cost estimate rose from $21.4 billion to $34.2 billion)PublishedNovember 8, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceKinder MorganDocumentTrans Mountain Files Facilities Expansion Application with the National Energy BoardWhereNews release text ('proposed $5.4 billion project')PublishedDecember 16, 2013CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceCBC NewsDocumentCRA still owed over $5B in COVID-19 benefits sent to ineligible recipientsWhereArticle body (figures the CRA provided to CBC News)PublishedSeptember 18, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Auditor General of CanadaDocumentReport 8—Canada Emergency Business Account (2024 Reports of the Auditor General)WhereAt a GlancePublishedDecember 2, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceThe Canadian Press (published by The Globe and Mail)DocumentFixing Phoenix payroll problems cost Ottawa $5.1-billion, says federal officialWhereParagraph quoting Alex Benay, associate deputy minister, Public Services and Procurement Canada, on the roughly $5.1 billion spent processing the backlog of Phoenix pay errorsPublishedJune 23, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceOffice of the Auditor General of CanadaDocumentReport 6—Sustainable Development Technology Canada (2024 Reports of the Auditor General)WhereAt a Glance; Key facts and findings (8 projects, $51M; 2 Ecosystem projects, $8M)PublishedJune 4, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach item counted once, and only its overrun, failure cost or payments to people and businesses that did not qualify: never whole program costs, contract values, loans repaid, private court orders or cancelled deals.All sourcesaccountability.waste.documented_total.now of overruns, failures and improper payments from 2008 to 2026, each counted once. It spans other years and kinds of loss, so it is never added to the ledger.

The ledger is a floor. Money spent on programs that missed their targets is booked as spent, not lost, so no ledger built from the books can see it. Provincial losses are left out because this is Ottawa's ledger. The ledger itself is on the waste page.

The Retirement Scenario

What your share of Ottawa's gap would be worth if you had kept it: a drained.ca scenario, not a forecast.

  1. Your share of the gap. Receipt25.9%Share of federal revenue collected in Alberta that Ottawa did not spend here, 2024Actual · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta ÷ federal revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, transfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe retirement scenario applies this share to your own federal income tax and EI premiums.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.share_of_revenue.2024 of your federal income tax and EI premiums: the share of federal revenue collected in Alberta that Ottawa didn't spend here in 2024 (Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024 of Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024). Someone who pays the average federal revenue per Albertan (Receipt$14,965Federal revenue collected in Alberta per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itfederal revenue collected in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.per_person.2024 in 2024) gets exactly the per-Albertan gap (Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024); lower earners get less and higher earners more.
  2. Invested for a career. That amount is set aside at the end of each of 40 working years and earns drained.ca scenarioReceipt6.8%Retirement scenario: assumed annual return after inflationdrained.ca scenario · scenarioHow we got itthe S&P 500's 1928 to 2025 average annual return after inflation, assumed to continueInputstransfers.gap_retirement.sp500_real_return.1928-2025SourceAswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of BusinessDocumentHistorical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2024 (updated January 5, 2026)WhereTable, group "Value of $100 invested at start of 1928 in", column "S&P 500 (includes dividends)", row 2025: $1,157,598.95PublishedJanuary 5, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsDocumentCPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): All items in U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0)WhereSeries CUUR0000SA0, 1927, December column: 17.3CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsDocumentCPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): All items in U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0)WhereSeries CUUR0000SA0, 2025, December column: 324.054CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceA drained.ca scenario, not a forecast: a long-run past average applied to the future. Results are in today's dollars.All sourcestransfers.gap_retirement.real_return.scenario a year after inflation: the S&P 500's average annual return from 1928 to 2025, dividends reinvested, after US inflation (NYU Stern historical returns; US Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer prices). Because the return is after inflation, the result is in today's dollars: value = share × ((1 + r)^40 − 1) ÷ r, where r is the return.
  3. Equalization's slice. Receipt4.6%Equalization as a share of federal expenses, 2026-27Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization payments ÷ total federal expensesInputstransfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27, federal.expenses.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.9 The Expense Outlook, "Total expenses" row, 2026-2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEqualization is paid from federal general revenue, so roughly this share of each federal dollar goes to it.All sourcestransfers.equalization.share_of_federal_expenses.fy2026-27 of the same federal income tax and EI, Equalization's share of federal spending in 2026-27; Receipt51.2%Quebec's share of Equalization, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec ÷ total EqualizationInputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_share.fy2026-27 of that matches Quebec's share of the program.

It understates the gap in two ways: it leaves out the EI premiums your employer pays and the GST you pay, both federal revenue collected in Alberta. And a long-run average is not a promise: returns vary widely from decade to decade. Treat the result as a measure of scale, not a forecast.

Worked examples: one earner, 2026, today's dollars
IncomeFederal income tax and EIYour share of the gapWorth after 40 years
$48,400Alberta median employment income, 2024Receipt$48,400Median employment income, Albertans aged 15 and over with employment income, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 11-10-0239-01 Income of individuals by age group, gender and income source, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areasWhereAlberta; 15 years and over; Total - Gender; Employment income; Median income (excluding zeros); 2024 (vector v107680668)PublishedApril 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCanadian Income Survey, 2024 constant dollars. An individual measure, matching a calculator that taxes one person's income.All sourcesalberta.median_employment_income.2024$4,567$1,183$223,025
$75,000$9,382$2,430$458,141
$100,000$14,425$3,736$704,409
$150,000$26,425$6,845$1,290,440

Data Sources

Every figure links to its source. We use primary government data wherever it exists; think-tank, advocacy and news sources are labelled as such.

CategorySourceAuthorityUpdates
Federal Income TaxTax rates and income bracketsCanada Revenue AgencyAnnual (January)
Alberta Provincial TaxTaxes and levies overviewGovernment of AlbertaAnnual (post-budget)
CPP ContributionsCPP contribution rates, maximums and exemptionsCanada Revenue AgencyAnnual (November)
EI PremiumsEI premium rates and maximumsCanada Revenue AgencyAnnual (September)
Federal ExpendituresSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1Department of Finance CanadaEach budget and update
Government Expenditure Plan and Main EstimatesTreasury Board of CanadaAnnual + Quarterly supplements
Alberta ExpendituresAlberta BudgetGovernment of AlbertaAnnual (late February)
Federal DebtAnnual Financial Report (audited net debt and accumulated deficit)Department of Finance CanadaAnnual (Fall)
Spring Economic Update 2026 (projected net debt, Table A1.7)Department of Finance CanadaEach budget and update
Economic and Fiscal OutlookParliamentary Budget OfficerSeveral times a year
General Government DebtGovernment debt (Table 36-10-0580-01)Statistics CanadaAnnual
World Economic Outlook DatabaseInternational Monetary FundSemi-annual (April/October)
Alberta and OttawaRevenue, expenditure and budgetary balance (Table 36-10-0450-01)Statistics CanadaAnnual (November)
Major federal transfers (Equalization by province)Department of Finance CanadaAnnual (December)
Alberta DebtAlberta Fiscal Plan and quarterly updatesGovernment of AlbertaAnnual + quarterly updates
Population DataPopulation estimates quarterlyStatistics CanadaQuarterly
Retirement ScenarioHistorical returns on stocks, bonds and bills (S&P 500)NYU Stern School of Business (Aswath Damodaran)Annual (January)
Consumer Price Index, all urban consumersU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthly
Inflation DataConsumer Price IndexStatistics CanadaMonthly

Every figure on the site, with its document, table and the date we checked it, is on our sources page.

Update Schedule

Data is updated following major government releases.

Federal & Alberta Budgets

Updated following each budget and fiscal update

CPP/EI Rates

Updated each fall when announced for the following year

Tax Brackets

Updated each December for following tax year

Population Data

Updated quarterly from Statistics Canada

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about the data and methodology.

Don't taxes pay for important services?

Yes. Health care, infrastructure and social programs provide real value. This site doesn't argue against taxation; it presents the trajectory. Current spending growth, debt accumulation and an aging population make the status quo unsustainable, in our view. In September 2025 the interim Parliamentary Budget Officer told MPs: “Certainly we don't want to be alarmist; at the same time, the current path we're on in terms of federal debt as a share of the economy is unsustainable.” The PBO's formal long-term tests came out the other way; the next answer explains why we give more weight to what budgets have actually done. The question isn't whether taxes exist, but whether Canadians are getting value and whether this path continues.ReceiptCertainly we don't want to be alarmist; at the same time, the current path we're on in terms of federal debt as a share of the economy is unsustainable.Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques on the federal debt pathActual · 2025-09-25SourceHouse of Commons of CanadaDocumentStanding Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), 45th Parliament, 1st Session, Meeting No. 4WhereEvidence of Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 16:15: Jason Jacques, interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, answering Vince GasparroCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSaid the day the PBO released its September 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, about the federal debt-to-GDP ratio rising over the outlook. The PBO's later long-term analyses (Budget 2025 note, December 17, 2025; Spring Economic Update note, May 4, 2026) judged federal policy sustainable over the long term.All sourcesforecasts.pbo_warning.unsustainable-2025-09-25

Doesn't the PBO say federal finances are sustainable?

Its formal long-term tests do, but only on Ottawa's own projections. In December 2025 the PBO wrote that “based on Finance Canada projections, current fiscal policy in Budget 2025 ‘would be deemed sustainable over the long term.’” In May 2026 it assessed the Spring Economic Update: “The SEU also includes a long-term projection, with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining to 25.1 per cent by 2060-61. Based on this path, current policy would be assessed as sustainable under the IMF framework, with a modest negative fiscal gap.” Both paths assume Ottawa holds spending to its plans, and its plans have not held: Ottawa's lowest forecast of the 2026-27 deficit was $3.4 billion, in the Fall Economic Statement 2022, and the Spring Economic Update 2026 projects $65.3 billion. The PBO itself warns that “repeated upward revisions to spending in subsequent planning cycles, and as a consequence to the debt-to-GDP track, can erode the credibility of fiscal plans and weaken confidence in the fiscal framework and raise concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.” We base our projections on what budgets have actually done.Receiptbased on Finance Canada projections, current fiscal policy in Budget 2025 ‘would be deemed sustainable over the long term.’Parliamentary Budget Officer on the long-term sustainability of Budget 2025Actual · 2025-12-17SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentBudget 2025: Long-term Fiscal Sustainability (BLOG-2526-010)WhereParagraph on the federal fiscal gap: "Based on Finance Canada's long-term baseline scenario in Budget 2025, PBO estimates the federal fiscal gap to be -0.1 per cent of GDP"PublishedDecember 17, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe PBO's test rests on Finance Canada's own long-term projections. The same note says Budget 2025 leaves "limited fiscal room to reduce revenues or increase program spending".All sourcesdebt.pbo.sustainability.2025-12-17ReceiptThe SEU also includes a long-term projection, with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining to 25.1 per cent by 2060-61. Based on this path, current policy would be assessed as sustainable under the IMF framework, with a modest negative fiscal gap.Parliamentary Budget Officer on the long-term projection in the Spring Economic Update 2026Actual · 2026-05-04SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentPBO Assessment of Spring Economic Update: Fiscal Anchors and Fiscal Sustainability (NT-2627-002-S)WhereSection "Fiscal Sustainability", subsection "Assessment", first paragraphPublishedMay 4, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source"This path" is Finance Canada's own long-term projection in the Spring Economic Update 2026. The PBO adds that the projections "do not include all the anticipated spending related to defence."All sourcesdebt.pbo.sustainability.2026-05-04Receipt-$3,400,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03Receipt-$65,300,000,000Federal budgetary balance for 2026-27, as projected in each document (negative = deficit)Forecast · 2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceEach point is the balance one document gave for this fiscal year; its period is the date that document was published. The last point is the audited result, the preliminary result or the PBO's independent projection, as labelled.All sourcesforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28Receiptrepeated upward revisions to spending in subsequent planning cycles, and as a consequence to the debt-to-GDP track, can erode the credibility of fiscal plans and weaken confidence in the fiscal framework and raise concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.Parliamentary Budget Officer on repeated upward revisions to federal spendingActual · 2026-05-04SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentPBO Assessment of Spring Economic Update: Fiscal Anchors and Fiscal Sustainability (NT-2627-002-S)WhereSection "Fiscal Sustainability", subsection "Context": "Additionally, reviewing past fiscal projections are also important, as repeated upward revisions to spending ..."PublishedMay 4, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.pbo.spending_revisions_warning.2026-05-04

Ottawa's record: Promises vs Reality on The Case, and, above, why our projection does not use government forecasts.

Isn't this just conservative propaganda?

No. Every figure links to its source, and we use primary government data wherever it exists: Finance Canada, the PBO, Statistics Canada, the CRA and the Treasury Board. We do have a view, and we say so. The numbers are the government's own; the conclusions are ours. Check the math and draw your own.

Why only Alberta?

Alberta was the natural starting point: its government receives no Equalization while Ottawa collects far more in Alberta than it spends there, and its fiscal data is well documented. The vision is to eventually expand to other western provinces and territories that share concerns about fiscal federalism.

Why don't you include property tax?

Property tax is municipal, requires knowing your specific municipality and property assessment, and funds local services most people can see (garbage, fire, roads). Including it would add complexity and dilute the federal/provincial fiscal message.

Why don't you include sales tax (GST)?

GST varies dramatically based on individual spending patterns. Someone who saves half their income pays very different GST than someone who spends it all. Accurate calculation would require detailed spending data not available.

Is my income data stored?

No. All calculations happen in your browser, and the income you type never leaves your device. We use Umami, which sets no cookies and counts page views and clicks. Our host's Vercel Web Analytics and Speed Insights set no cookies and measure page views and page speed. No tool receives anything typed into a calculator. See our privacy page.

How often is the data updated?

Data is updated following major government releases: federal and Alberta budgets and their updates, CPP and EI rates each fall, and quarterly population estimates. Every figure shows the date we last checked its source; the full list is on our sources page.

Which debt measure do you use?

Net debt: everything Ottawa owes minus its financial assets, such as cash, loans and investments. It doesn't subtract roads, buildings and land, which will never be sold to repay lenders. Ottawa's own headline, "federal debt" (the accumulated deficit), does subtract them and is smaller; we show it too, under its own name.

Can I verify your numbers?

Yes. Every figure links to its source: the publisher, the document, the table or page, and the date we checked it. Most are government sources; think-tank, advocacy and news sources are labelled as such. The full list is on our sources page.

Who made this?

drained.ca was built by an Albertan father concerned about the fiscal burden being left to the next generation. He writes as Grant Levy, a pen name. The site isn't affiliated with any political party, think tank or advocacy group. It has a point of view and says so; the numbers are the government's own, and every one links to its source.

Limitations & Disclosures

What isn't included and why.

Property Tax

Excluded because it's municipal, requires municipality selection, and funds visible local services. Adding it would complicate the federal/provincial message.

Sales Tax (GST)

Excluded because it varies dramatically by spending patterns. Accurate calculation would require detailed spending data.

Hidden Taxes

Fuel taxes, industrial carbon pricing passed on in prices (the consumer carbon tax ended April 1, 2025), alcohol and tobacco taxes, and other embedded taxes are excluded. These are complex to calculate and vary by consumption.

Accounting Principles

Certain government accounting practices that obscure fiscal reality are rejected.

Calling spending "investments"

All government outlays are spending, regardless of label. Private sector 'investments' have measurable ROI and can be liquidated. Government 'investments' in programs cannot.

Subtracting roads and buildings from debt

Roads, buildings and land will never be sold to repay lenders. Counting them as an offset makes the debt look smaller than what Ottawa must carry, so our headline is net debt, which doesn't subtract them. Ottawa's own headline, the accumulated deficit, does; we show it too, labelled.

What our debt figure leaves out

The debt of enterprise Crown corporations and the loans Ottawa guarantees, which the Public Accounts list as contingent liabilities. Taxpayers ultimately stand behind them, so treat our figure as a floor.

The principle: If the government spent a dollar, that dollar came from either taxes or borrowing. The books must balance.

How we work

AI tools help with our research, drafting and checking. A person reviews every piece before it is published, and every figure links to its source.

Data Accuracy Challenges

Found an error? Get in touch.

If you believe any figures are incorrect, please reach out with:

  • The specific figure you believe is wrong
  • The correct figure with source citation
  • A link to the official government source

Email: [email protected]