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The long read · 11 sections · 32 min

The Case for Alberta

Ottawa takes. Quebec takes. Alberta gives. The numbers behind Question 10, with the receipt for every one.

By Published Updated Every underlined number opens its receipt

Alberta's vote is structurally outweighed: it holds Receipt10.8%Alberta's share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got itAlberta seats ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.share.2022-allocation of federal seats. Ontario and Quebec have Receipt58.3%Ontario and Quebec's combined share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got it(Ontario + Quebec seats) ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.share.2022-allocation. The math cannot change.

This is not speculation. This is the documented trajectory. Ray Dalio has spent 50 years studying why empires rise and fall. Applying his framework, built on 500 years of history, we place Canada in Stage 5 and show what comes next.

Referendum day is ReceiptOctober 19, 2026Alberta referendum voting dayActual · 2026SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWherePage heading "A referendum has been set for October 19, 2026."PublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceElections Alberta lists three Orders in Council for the referendum: O.C. 109/2026 and O.C. 110/2026 (approved March 31, 2026) and O.C. 160/2026 (approved May 28, 2026). The published date is the page's last modification.All sourcesreferendum.date.2026

Question 10 asks whether Alberta should remain a province or start the legal process toward a binding separation referendum. What it asks

The receipts

  • Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

    Left Alberta in 2024, net. Ottawa collected Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024 here and spent Receipt$54,354,000,000Federal government spending in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments expenditure; 2024 (vector v107650120, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_spending.2024.Statistics Canada

  • Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024

    Net federal take per Albertan, 2024. Per household: Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024.Statistics Canada

  • Receipt10.8%Alberta's share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got itAlberta seats ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.share.2022-allocation

    Alberta's share of House of Commons seats. Ontario and Quebec: Receipt58.3%Ontario and Quebec's combined share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got it(Ontario + Quebec seats) ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.share.2022-allocation.Elections Canada

The Case in 60 Seconds

Five claims, each with its receipt

  1. Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

    In 2024 Ottawa collected Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024 more in Alberta than it spent here: Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024 for every Albertan.

    Section 5: The Toxic Relationship

  2. Receipt37House of Commons seats, Alberta (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIn use since the April 28, 2025 general election.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation / Receipt343House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUp from 338.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocation

    Alberta holds Receipt37House of Commons seats, Alberta (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIn use since the April 28, 2025 general election.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation of Receipt343House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUp from 338.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocation House of Commons seats. Ontario and Quebec hold Receipt200House of Commons seats, Ontario and Quebec combinedActual · 2025-How we got itOntario seats + Quebec seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.quebec.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation, a majority on their own.Receipt172Seats needed for a majority in the House of CommonsActual · 2025-How we got ithalf of all seats, rounded down, plus oneInputscase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.majority.2022-allocation

    Section 1: The Democratic Trap

  3. Receipt$13,907,000,000Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27

    Quebec receives Receipt$13,907,000,000Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27 in Equalization this year, Receipt51.2%Quebec's share of Equalization, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec ÷ total EqualizationInputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_share.fy2026-27 of the program. Alberta receives Receipt$0Equalization payment to Alberta, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 column (shown as "-", nil)PublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReceives no Equalization payment this year.All sourcestransfers.equalization.ab.fy2026-27.

    Section 5: The Toxic Relationship

  4. 19.2xReceipt1,920.6%The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itdeficit for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ the promise for 2026-27, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.projection_multiple.fy2026-27

    In November 2022, Ottawa forecast a Receipt$3,400,000,000The promise for 2026-27: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2026-27 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.promise deficit for 2026-27, its lowest forecast. It now plans Receipt$65,300,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.seu-2026, Receipt1,920.6%The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itdeficit for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ the promise for 2026-27, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.projection_multiple.fy2026-27 times as much, and must borrow Receipt-$133,400,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27.

    Section 3: Promises vs Reality

  5. “is unsustainable”Receiptis unsustainableInterim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques on the federal debt path (closing words of the full quote)Actual · 2025-09-25SourceHouse of Commons of CanadaDocumentStanding Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), 45th Parliament, 1st Session, Meeting No. 4WhereEvidence, between timestamps (1615) and (1620), reply to Vince GasparroPublishedSeptember 25, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceVerbatim closing words of forecasts.pbo_warning.unsustainable-2025-09-25, for short formats (summary, share text). The PBO later judged Ottawa’s own long-term projections sustainable: case.pbo.sustainability.2025-12 and debt.pbo.sustainability.2026-05-04.All sourcescase.quote.pbo.jacques.2025-09-25.is_unsustainable

    In September 2025, Canada's interim Parliamentary Budget Officer told MPs the federal debt path “is unsustainable.”Receiptis unsustainableInterim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques on the federal debt path (closing words of the full quote)Actual · 2025-09-25SourceHouse of Commons of CanadaDocumentStanding Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), 45th Parliament, 1st Session, Meeting No. 4WhereEvidence, between timestamps (1615) and (1620), reply to Vince GasparroPublishedSeptember 25, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceVerbatim closing words of forecasts.pbo_warning.unsustainable-2025-09-25, for short formats (summary, share text). The PBO later judged Ottawa’s own long-term projections sustainable: case.pbo.sustainability.2025-12 and debt.pbo.sustainability.2026-05-04.All sourcescase.quote.pbo.jacques.2025-09-25.is_unsustainable

    Section 2: Dalio's Big Cycle
All sections

Referendum: October 19, 2026

Question 10: What's on the Ballot

On the ballot · Question 10October 19, 2026

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”ReceiptShould Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?Question 10 (separation), ballot questionActual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, the questionPublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceClause 4 of the order: the result of the referendum is not to be binding. Question 10 is a choice question: electors select one of two options. Elections Alberta publishes the same wording and states that it may not interpret the questions.All sourcesreferendum.q10.question.2026

  • Option 1“Alberta should remain a province of Canada.”ReceiptAlberta should remain a province of Canada.Question 10 (separation), Option 1Actual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, 'Option 1'PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesreferendum.q10.option_1.2026
  • Option 2“The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”ReceiptThe Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.Question 10 (separation), Option 2Actual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, 'Option 2'PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesreferendum.q10.option_2.2026
Wording as published by Elections Alberta. Set by Order in Council 160/2026, approved ReceiptMay 28, 2026Order in Council 160/2026 approved (sets Question 10; result not binding)Actual · 2026-05-28SourceGovernment of Alberta (Lieutenant Governor in Council)DocumentOrder in Council 160/2026WhereOrder date stamp; section 4PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.referendum.q10.order_date.

Question 10 is a choice, not a yes-or-no: you mark one option. Whichever wins, the Order in Council that set the question says “the result of the referendum is not to be binding,”Receiptthe result of the referendum is not to be bindingOrder in Council 160/2026 on the effect of the Question 10 resultActual · 2026-05-28SourceGovernment of Alberta (Lieutenant Governor in Council)DocumentOrder in Council 160/2026WhereSection 4PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.quote.oc160.not_binding so neither option changes the law by itself. A vote for Option 1 says Alberta should remain a province. A vote for Option 2 asks the Government of Alberta to begin the legal process toward a second, binding referendum on separation; it does not take Alberta out of Canada.

If a province's government releases a secession question, the federal Clarity Act gives the House of Commons Receipt30Days the House of Commons has to decide whether a provincial secession question is clear (Clarity Act s. 1(1))Actual · 2000SourceGovernment of Canada (Justice Laws Website)DocumentClarity Act, S.C. 2000, c. 26 (consolidated text)WhereSection 1(1); see also s. 1(3)-(4), s. 2(1)-(2) and s. 3(1)PublishedSeptember 21, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe count is 30 days (extended by 40 days if a federal election intervenes, s. 1(2)).All sourcescase.law.clarity_act.commons_review_days days to decide whether it is clear. After the vote, if the province seeks to negotiate, the House decides whether a clear majority chose to leave. The Supreme Court's 1998 Secession ReferenceReceiptAugust 20, 1998Supreme Court of Canada opinion in Reference re Secession of QuebecActual · 1998-08-20SourceSupreme Court of CanadaDocumentReference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217WhereParas. 84 (secession requires a constitutional amendment, which requires negotiation), 87-88 (clear majority on a clear question; reciprocal duty to negotiate)PublishedAugust 20, 1998CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe SCC and CanLII sites refused automated access on 2026-09-28; paragraph numbers were confirmed from secondary quotations. Re-check before ship.All sourcescase.law.secession_reference.decided holds that a clear majority on a clear question would oblige Ottawa and the provinces to negotiate, and that secession itself would take a constitutional amendment.

Elections Alberta says “Question 10 will be counted first at each voting location and station,”ReceiptQuestion 10 will be counted first at each voting location and stationCounting order on referendum night (Elections Alberta)Actual · 2026SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWhereSection 'Unofficial Results Reporting'PublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceElections Alberta: ballots will be counted by hand and results reported in the order its page lists the questions, which starts with Question 10; each counting station finishes one question before moving to the next.All sourcesreferendum.q10.count_order.2026 and that it “may not interpret the questions provided by the Government of Alberta.”Receiptmay not interpret the questions provided by the Government of AlbertaElections Alberta on explaining the referendum questionsActual · 2026-10-19SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWhereSection "Questions on the Ballots", note under the questionsPublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe page adds that questions about what each question means should be directed to the Government of Alberta or an MLA.All sourcescase.quote.elections_alberta.may_not_interpret It sends questions about what each question means to the Government of Alberta or your MLA.

Questions 1 to 4 on the same ballot are about immigration. What Ottawa said, what it later admitted, and who pays

Where and how to vote: Elections Alberta (opens in a new tab)

All sections

Section 1 of 11

The Democratic Trap

Why voting federally is a waste of time for Albertans

1 min read · 14 receipts in this section

Seats in the House of Commons (2022 allocation)
  • Alberta's federal seatsReceipt37House of Commons seats, Alberta (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIn use since the April 28, 2025 general election.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation
  • Ontario + Quebec seatsReceipt200House of Commons seats, Ontario and Quebec combinedActual · 2025-How we got itOntario seats + Quebec seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.quebec.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation
  • Total seatsReceipt343House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUp from 338.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocation

Source: Elections CanadaReceipt343House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUp from 338.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocation

Alberta has Receipt10.8%Alberta's share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got itAlberta seats ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.share.2022-allocation of federal seats. Ontario and Quebec together have Receipt58.3%Ontario and Quebec's combined share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got it(Ontario + Quebec seats) ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.share.2022-allocation, a majority on their own.Receipt172Seats needed for a majority in the House of CommonsActual · 2025-How we got ithalf of all seats, rounded down, plus oneInputscase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.majority.2022-allocation Even if every single Albertan voted exactly the same way, it would not matter. Federal politicians will always prioritize the 58% over the 11%.

This is not corruption. This is democracy working exactly as designed. The design just does not work for Alberta. It never has. It never will. The structural math cannot be changed through voting.

The numbers in this section · 14

  • House of Commons seats, Alberta (2023 Representation Orders)

    Receipt37House of Commons seats, Alberta (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIn use since the April 28, 2025 general election.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation

  • House of Commons seats, Ontario and Quebec combined

    Receipt200House of Commons seats, Ontario and Quebec combinedActual · 2025-How we got itOntario seats + Quebec seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.quebec.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation

  • House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)

    Receipt343House of Commons seats, total (2023 Representation Orders)Actual · 2025-SourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUp from 338.All sourcescase.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocation

  • Alberta's share of House of Commons seats

    Receipt10.8%Alberta's share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got itAlberta seats ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.alberta.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Alberta rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.alberta.share.2022-allocation

  • Ontario and Quebec's combined share of House of Commons seats

    Receipt58.3%Ontario and Quebec's combined share of House of Commons seatsActual · 2025-How we got it(Ontario + Quebec seats) ÷ total seatsInputscase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.2022-allocation, case.hoc_seats.total.2022-allocationSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Ontario rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Quebec rowPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceElections CanadaDocumentHouse of Commons Seat Allocation by Province, 2022–2032WhereTable 'Allocation of Seats in the House of Commons', Canada totalPublishedOctober 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.hoc_seats.ontario_quebec.share.2022-allocation

  • Alberta's share of Canada's population, July 1, 2026

    Receipt12.2%Alberta's share of Canada's population, July 1, 2026Preliminary · 2026-07-01How we got itpopulation of Alberta ÷ population of CanadaInputspopulation.alberta.2026-07-01, population.canada.2026-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcespopulation.alberta.share_of_canada.2026-07-01

All sections
Next · 02 of 11Dalio's Big Cycle

Section 2 of 11

Where Canada Sits on Dalio's Big Cycle

Empires rise and fall in predictable stages. Knowing where you are is the first step to knowing what comes next.

3 min read · 25 receipts in this section

Ray Dalio's framework, detailed in “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” (2021Receipt2021Ray Dalio, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, publishedActual · 2021SourceRay Dalio / Avid Reader Press (Simon & Schuster)DocumentPrinciples for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and FailWhereBook pageCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.dalio.changing_world_order.published) and “How Countries Go Broke” (2025ReceiptJune 3, 2025Ray Dalio, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, publishedActual · 2025-06-03SourceRay Dalio / Avid Reader Press (Simon & Schuster)DocumentHow Countries Go Broke: The Big CycleWhereBook pagePublishedJune 3, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceChapters were serialized online from January 2025.All sourcescase.dalio.how_countries_go_broke.published), identifies six stages that every declining empire passes through. The pattern has repeated across the Spanish, Dutch, British, and now American empires.

Dalio's six stages, and where Canada sits

  1. Stage 1: New OrderNew leadership consolidates power after crisis
  2. Stage 2: BuildingResource allocation systems built, bureaucracies refined
  3. Stage 3: Peace and ProsperityPeak productivity, rising living standards
  4. Stage 4: ExcessDebt rises, wealth gaps widen, productivity falls
  5. Stage 5: Bad Financial Conditions and Intense ConflictDebt unsustainable, political extremism, internal conflictCanada, in our judgment
  6. Stage 6: Civil War or RevolutionSystem breaks down. Violent restructuring or peaceful reform.Coming next
Stage placement is drained.ca's judgment, applying Dalio's framework. Dalio has not placed Canada in a stage.

Why We Place Canada in Stage 5

Five markers of Stage 5, in drained.ca's reading of the record

  • Debt unsustainable

    Receipt113.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2025 of GDP, all governments, gross (IMF, 2025).

  • Internal conflict

    Receipt56.0%Albertans who feel their province is treated unfairly by the federal governmentEstimate · 2025-06SourcePollara Strategic InsightsDocument22% of Albertans would vote to separateWhereArticle textPublishedJune 26, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePoll. Fieldwork dates are not stated in the article.All sourcescase.poll.pollara.2025-06.treated_unfairly of Albertans say Ottawa treats their province unfairly (Pollara, 2025).

  • External conflict

    Trump threatened Receipt100.0%Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China dealActual · 2026-01SourceFox BusinessDocumentCanadian PM insists country has no plans for China free trade after US tariff threatWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. R-1 dates the threat to January 24, 2026.All sourcescase.us.tariff_threat.2026-01 tariffs over Carney's China deal. The US bought Receipt71.7%Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentThe Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025WhereAnnual review section (US share fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025)PublishedFebruary 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLowest share since the early 1980s.All sourcescase.trade.us_share_goods_exports.2025 of Canada's goods exports in 2025.

  • Political extremism

    The Emergencies Act invoked, then ruled unreasonable on appeal.ReceiptJanuary 16, 2026Federal Court of Appeal dismisses Ottawa's appeals and upholds the 2024 ruling (2026 FCA 6)Actual · 2026-01-16SourceFederal Court of AppealDocumentAttorney General of Canada v. Canadian Civil Liberties Association, 2026 FCA 6 (plain-language summary)WherePlain-language decision summaryPublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFull reasons: https://www.fca-caf.ca/Content/assets/pdf/base/Attorney-General-of-Canada-et-al-v-Canadian-Civil-Liberties-Association-et-al-2026-FCA-6.pdfAll sourcesaccountability.emergencies.fca_ruling.2026-01-16

  • The grocery squeeze

    Beef up Receipt62.0%Beef price increase since the end of 2019Actual · 2019-2025SourceThe Globe and MailDocumentWhat's Eating Canadian ConsumersWhereArticle textCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. Statistics Canada CPI item series are the primary alternative. Published 2025-12.All sourcescase.globe.food.beef_since_2019 since 2019. Coffee up Receipt63.0%Coffee price increase since the end of 2019Actual · 2019-2025SourceThe Globe and MailDocumentWhat's Eating Canadian ConsumersWhereArticle textCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. Published 2025-12.All sourcescase.globe.food.coffee_since_2019.

Show the numbers

Internal conflict intensifying

Alberta and Saskatchewan against Ottawa. Quebec's sovereigntist Parti Québécois leads the polls heading into its October 2026 election (Receipt29.0%Parti Québécois support among decided Quebec votersEstimate · 2026-09-18/2026-09-21SourceLégerDocumentQuebec Voting Intentions: The PQ Strengthens Several Indicators Amid a Strong Desire for ChangeWhereReport textPublishedSeptember 22, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOnline survey of 1,001 Quebecers, Sept 18-21, 2026. The PQ also led at 29% in Léger's Aug 28-31 survey.All sourcescase.poll.leger.2026-09.pq_decided of decided voters, Léger, September 2026). First Ministers meetings increasingly hostile.

Political extremism rising

Canadians are losing confidence in institutions as grievance takes hold (Edelman Trust Barometer, 2025).ReceiptMarch 20252025 Edelman Trust Barometer, Canada report: Canadians losing confidence in institutions as grievance takes holdEstimate · 2025SourceEdelman CanadaDocumentTrust in Crisis: Canadians Lose Confidence in Institutions as Grievance Takes HoldWhereLaunch release headline (survey of 1,150 Canadians, Oct 25-Nov 16, 2024)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSurvey by a communications firm; label as analysis. The site refused automated access on 2026-09-28; details from search listings. Published 2025-03.All sourcescase.survey.edelman.canada.2025 The Emergencies Act was invoked for the first time since it became law in 1988, and a court later ruled the invocation unreasonable and its measures a Charter violation; the Federal Court of Appeal upheld that ruling in January 2026.ReceiptJanuary 16, 2026Federal Court of Appeal dismisses Ottawa's appeals and upholds the 2024 ruling (2026 FCA 6)Actual · 2026-01-16SourceFederal Court of AppealDocumentAttorney General of Canada v. Canadian Civil Liberties Association, 2026 FCA 6 (plain-language summary)WherePlain-language decision summaryPublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFull reasons: https://www.fca-caf.ca/Content/assets/pdf/base/Attorney-General-of-Canada-et-al-v-Canadian-Civil-Liberties-Association-et-al-2026-FCA-6.pdfAll sourcesaccountability.emergencies.fca_ruling.2026-01-16 Polarization accelerating across every measure.

The grocery squeeze

Your wages did not rise 62%. That gap is your family's standard of living disappearing to fund deficits you did not vote for.

The economy grew Receipt21.7%Change in real GDP, Canada, 2015 to 2025Actual · 2015 to 2025How we got itreal GDP in 2025 ÷ real GDP in 2015 − 1Inputspercapita.canada.real_gdp_annual.2015, percapita.canada.real_gdp_annual.2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0104-01 Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterlyWhereGross domestic product at market prices; Chained (2017) dollars; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates; vector v62305752PublishedAugust 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcespercapita.canada.real_gdp_change.2015-2025 from 2015 to 2025. Per person, real GDP grew Receipt4.4%Change in real GDP per person, Canada, 2015 to 2025Estimate · 2015 to 2025How we got itreal GDP per person in 2025 ÷ real GDP per person in 2015 − 1Inputspercapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person.2015, percapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person.2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0104-01 Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterlyWhereGross domestic product at market prices; Chained (2017) dollars; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates; vector v62305752PublishedAugust 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada; vector v1PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), July 1, 2025PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcespercapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person_change.2015-2025. Canada's GDP per capita, decade by decade

Debt unsustainable

Total government debt as a share of GDP: today, and in our 2035 stress scenario
  • All governments, gross, 2025 (IMF estimate)Receipt113.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2025
  • 2035, drained.ca's stress scenario (our assumptions)drained.ca scenarioReceipt150.0%drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDPdrained.ca scenario · 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOur own stress projection, not an official forecast. It starts from the IMF's 2025 estimate and assumes government deficits grow 15% to 20% a year while nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3% a year, a recession or trade-war case. The IMF projects a decline over the same years.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.drained_scenario@2035

Source: International Monetary FundReceipt113.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2025

  • Debt per child at birth

    Receipt$35,308Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026Estimate · 2026-03-31How we got itnet debt at March 31, 2026 ÷ population of Canada on April 1, 2026Inputsdebt.federal.net_debt.2026-03-31, population.canada.2026-04-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.7 Summary Statement of Transactions, Financial Position, "Net debt" row, 2025-2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), April 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.per_person.2026-03-31

    Ottawa's net debt per Canadian at March 31, 2026. Your grandchildren inherit this.

Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques told the Commons committee on government operations on September 25, 2025, the day his office released its fiscal outlookReceiptSeptember 25, 2025PBO Economic and Fiscal Outlook, September 2025 (released the day of the testimony)Actual · 2025-09-25SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Outlook – September 2025 (RP-2526-012-S)WhereReport coverPublishedSeptember 25, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.pbo.efo.2025-09.released: “We don't lightly use the word ‘unsustainable’.”ReceiptWe don't lightly use the word “unsustainable”.Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques on the word “unsustainable”Actual · 2025-09-25SourceHouse of Commons of CanadaDocumentStanding Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), 45th Parliament, 1st Session, Meeting No. 4WhereEvidence of Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 15:55: Jason Jacques, interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, answering Jeremy PatzerCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSaid the day the PBO released its September 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, about the federal debt-to-GDP ratio rising over the outlook. The PBO's later long-term analyses (Budget 2025 note, December 17, 2025; Spring Economic Update note, May 4, 2026) judged federal policy sustainable over the long term.All sourcesforecasts.pbo_warning.dont-lightly-use-2025-09-25 Later in the same meeting he said: “Certainly we don't want to be alarmist; at the same time, the current path we're on in terms of federal debt as a share of the economy is unsustainable.”ReceiptCertainly we don't want to be alarmist; at the same time, the current path we're on in terms of federal debt as a share of the economy is unsustainable.Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques on the federal debt pathActual · 2025-09-25SourceHouse of Commons of CanadaDocumentStanding Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), 45th Parliament, 1st Session, Meeting No. 4WhereEvidence of Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 16:15: Jason Jacques, interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, answering Vince GasparroCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSaid the day the PBO released its September 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, about the federal debt-to-GDP ratio rising over the outlook. The PBO's later long-term analyses (Budget 2025 note, December 17, 2025; Spring Economic Update note, May 4, 2026) judged federal policy sustainable over the long term.All sourcesforecasts.pbo_warning.unsustainable-2025-09-25

Stage 6 Is Coming

The numbers in this section · 25

  • Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)

    Receipt113.5%Canada, total government gross debt as a share of GDP (all levels of government)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook database, April 2026WhereIndicator GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt (percent of GDP), CanadaCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceGeneral government covers the federal, provincial-territorial and local governments and the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans; gross debt includes government employee pension liabilities. 2015 to 2024 are historical data, 2025 is an IMF staff estimate and 2026 to 2031 are IMF projections.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.canada@2025

  • drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDP

    drained.ca scenarioReceipt150.0%drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDPdrained.ca scenario · 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOur own stress projection, not an official forecast. It starts from the IMF's 2025 estimate and assumes government deficits grow 15% to 20% a year while nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3% a year, a recession or trade-war case. The IMF projects a decline over the same years.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.drained_scenario@2035

  • Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026

    Receipt$35,308Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026Estimate · 2026-03-31How we got itnet debt at March 31, 2026 ÷ population of Canada on April 1, 2026Inputsdebt.federal.net_debt.2026-03-31, population.canada.2026-04-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.7 Summary Statement of Transactions, Financial Position, "Net debt" row, 2025-2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), April 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.per_person.2026-03-31

  • Federal debt as a share of GDP in 2060-61, in the Spring Economic Update 2026 long-term projection

    Receipt25.1%Federal debt as a share of GDP in 2060-61, in the Spring Economic Update 2026 long-term projectionForecast · FY2060-61SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentPBO Assessment of the Spring Economic Update: Fiscal Anchors and Fiscal Sustainability (NT-2627-002-S)WhereFiscal sustainability section: "The SEU also includes a long-term projection, with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining to 25.1 per cent by 2060-61."PublishedMay 4, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFinance Canada’s projection, as reported and assessed by the PBO.All sourcescase.pbo.seu2026.debt_to_gdp.fy2060-61

  • Albertans who feel their province is treated unfairly by the federal government

    Receipt56.0%Albertans who feel their province is treated unfairly by the federal governmentEstimate · 2025-06SourcePollara Strategic InsightsDocument22% of Albertans would vote to separateWhereArticle textPublishedJune 26, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePoll. Fieldwork dates are not stated in the article.All sourcescase.poll.pollara.2025-06.treated_unfairly

  • Parti Québécois support among decided Quebec voters

    Receipt29.0%Parti Québécois support among decided Quebec votersEstimate · 2026-09-18/2026-09-21SourceLégerDocumentQuebec Voting Intentions: The PQ Strengthens Several Indicators Amid a Strong Desire for ChangeWhereReport textPublishedSeptember 22, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOnline survey of 1,001 Quebecers, Sept 18-21, 2026. The PQ also led at 29% in Léger's Aug 28-31 survey.All sourcescase.poll.leger.2026-09.pq_decided

  • Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025

    Receipt71.7%Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentThe Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025WhereAnnual review section (US share fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025)PublishedFebruary 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLowest share since the early 1980s.All sourcescase.trade.us_share_goods_exports.2025

  • Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China deal

    Receipt100.0%Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China dealActual · 2026-01SourceFox BusinessDocumentCanadian PM insists country has no plans for China free trade after US tariff threatWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. R-1 dates the threat to January 24, 2026.All sourcescase.us.tariff_threat.2026-01

  • Beef price increase since the end of 2019

    Receipt62.0%Beef price increase since the end of 2019Actual · 2019-2025SourceThe Globe and MailDocumentWhat's Eating Canadian ConsumersWhereArticle textCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. Statistics Canada CPI item series are the primary alternative. Published 2025-12.All sourcescase.globe.food.beef_since_2019

  • Coffee price increase since the end of 2019

    Receipt63.0%Coffee price increase since the end of 2019Actual · 2019-2025SourceThe Globe and MailDocumentWhat's Eating Canadian ConsumersWhereArticle textCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. Published 2025-12.All sourcescase.globe.food.coffee_since_2019

  • Change in real GDP, Canada, 2015 to 2025

    Receipt21.7%Change in real GDP, Canada, 2015 to 2025Actual · 2015 to 2025How we got itreal GDP in 2025 ÷ real GDP in 2015 − 1Inputspercapita.canada.real_gdp_annual.2015, percapita.canada.real_gdp_annual.2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0104-01 Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterlyWhereGross domestic product at market prices; Chained (2017) dollars; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates; vector v62305752PublishedAugust 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcespercapita.canada.real_gdp_change.2015-2025

  • Change in real GDP per person, Canada, 2015 to 2025

    Receipt4.4%Change in real GDP per person, Canada, 2015 to 2025Estimate · 2015 to 2025How we got itreal GDP per person in 2025 ÷ real GDP per person in 2015 − 1Inputspercapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person.2015, percapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person.2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0104-01 Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterlyWhereGross domestic product at market prices; Chained (2017) dollars; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates; vector v62305752PublishedAugust 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada; vector v1PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), July 1, 2025PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcespercapita.canada.real_gdp_per_person_change.2015-2025

All sections
Next · 03 of 11Promises vs Reality

Section 3 of 11

Promises vs Reality

Ottawa's own budgets, one year at a time. On paper, the deficit always shrinks. Then the year arrives.

3 min read · 45 receipts in this section

The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it, document by document

$ billions · Ottawa's figure, the budgetary balance
The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it, document by document
DocumentOttawa's figure
Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 (December 2021)
Receipt$13,100,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Economic and Fiscal Update 2021Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Economic and Fiscal Update 2021)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2021-12-14SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Update 2021WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.4 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedDecember 14, 2021CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.efu-2021
Budget 2022 (April 2022)
Receipt$8,400,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2022Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in Budget 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-04-07SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2022: A Plan to Grow Our Economy and Make Life More AffordableWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.4 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 7, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.budget-2022
Fall Economic Statement 2022 (November 2022): the promise
Receipt$3,400,000,000The promise for 2026-27: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2026-27 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.promise
Budget 2023 (March 2023)
Receipt$15,800,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2023Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in Budget 2023)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2023-03-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2023: A Made-in-Canada PlanWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedMarch 28, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.budget-2023
Fall Economic Statement 2023 (November 2023)
Receipt$27,100,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the 2023 Fall Economic StatementForecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the 2023 Fall Economic Statement)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2023-11-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2023 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.4 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "2023 Fall Economic Statement budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.fes-2023
Budget 2024 (April 2024)
Receipt$30,800,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2024Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in Budget 2024)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2024-04-16SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2024: Fairness for Every GenerationWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budget 2024 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.budget-2024
Fall Economic Statement 2024 (December 2024)
Receipt$31,000,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the 2024 Fall Economic StatementForecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2024-12-16SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2024 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.6 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "2024 Fall Economic Statement budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.fes-2024
Budget 2025 (November 2025)
Receipt$65,400,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2025Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in Budget 2025)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2025-11-04SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2025: Canada StrongWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budget 2025 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.budget-2025
Spring Economic Update 2026 (April 2026): the current plan
Receipt$65,300,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.seu-2026
Parliamentary Budget Officer (June 2026, independent)
Receipt$71,800,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Parliamentary Budget Officer's June 2026 outlookForecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Parliamentary Budget Officer's June 2026 outlook)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-06-04SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026WhereTable 2, Summary of the fiscal outlook (printed page 8), row "Budgetary balance", 2026-27 columnPublishedJune 4, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.pbo-2026-06
Ottawa's figure is the budgetary balance for 2026-27 in each document, shown as a deficit. The dashed bar is the Parliamentary Budget Officer's independent projection of the same measure.

By Ottawa's rules, loans and investments are assets meant to come back, and buildings and equipment count as they wear out, so the cash they take stays out of its figure. Net of pension and other accounts, that cash adds Receipt-$68,100,000,000Federal non-budgetary transactions, 2026-27 (negative = cash out)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Total non-budgetary transactions", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceCash that leaves outside the budgetary balance: loans and investments, capital spending, and accounts that net against them. Added to the budgetary balance, it gives the financial requirement.All sourcesforecasts.nonbudgetary_total.fy2026-27 to the plan's Receipt$65,300,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.seu-2026. Counted in full, Ottawa must borrow Receipt-$133,400,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27 in 2026-27.

Anchors that broke

The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it, as a share of GDP, against the anchor Ottawa set in November 2023, and the cash it must borrow
  • The anchor: deficits below this share of GDP from 2026-27 (November 2023)Receipt1.0%The fiscal anchor Ottawa set in November 2023: deficits below this share of GDP from 2026-27Actual · 2023-11-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2023 Fall Economic StatementWhereEconomic and Fiscal Overview, section 3 "Fiscal Outlook", "Canada's Responsible Economic Plan", third of three fiscal objectives: "keeping deficits below 1 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 and future years"PublishedNovember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe quoted objective is forecasts.anchor.fes-2023-one-percent. This entry carries its ceiling as a number so a chart can draw it.All sourcesforecasts.anchor.fes-2023-one-percent.ratio
  • Fall Economic Statement 2024, on its own measureReceipt0.9%2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as a share of GDP, as projected in the 2024 Fall Economic StatementForecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2024 Fall Economic StatementWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.6 (Summary Statement of Transactions), "Per cent of GDP" block, row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedDecember 16, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe statement called this "achieving the government’s ongoing fiscal objective" of deficits below 1% of GDP from 2026-27.All sourcescase.promises.deficit_to_gdp.fy2026-27.fes-2024
  • Spring Economic Update 2026, the plan nowReceipt1.9%2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it, as a share of GDP, Spring Economic Update 2026 (the current plan)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance as a share of GDP, 2026-27, Spring Economic Update 2026)Inputsforecasts.budgetary_balance_to_gdp_seu2026.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7, per cent of GDP, row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.deficit_to_gdp.fy2026-27.seu-2026
  • Parliamentary Budget Officer, June 2026Receipt2.1%2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as a share of GDP, PBO projection (June 2026)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentEconomic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026WhereTable 2, Summary of the fiscal outlook, budgetary balance as a share of GDP, 2026-27PublishedJune 4, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.deficit_to_gdp.fy2026-27.pbo-2026-06
  • Counted in full: the cash Ottawa must borrow in 2026-27, as a share of GDP (Spring Economic Update 2026)Receipt3.9%The cash Ottawa must borrow in 2026-27 as a share of GDP (the financial requirement over the GDP its own deficit ratio implies), Spring Economic Update 2026Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it|financial requirement| ÷ (budgetary deficit ÷ |budgetary balance as a share of GDP|), all for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026Inputsforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27, case.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.seu-2026, forecasts.budgetary_balance_to_gdp_seu2026.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7, per cent of GDP, row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.borrowing_to_gdp.fy2026-27.seu-2026

Source: Department of Finance CanadaReceipt1.0%The fiscal anchor Ottawa set in November 2023: deficits below this share of GDP from 2026-27Actual · 2023-11-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2023 Fall Economic StatementWhereEconomic and Fiscal Overview, section 3 "Fiscal Outlook", "Canada's Responsible Economic Plan", third of three fiscal objectives: "keeping deficits below 1 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 and future years"PublishedNovember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe quoted objective is forecasts.anchor.fes-2023-one-percent. This entry carries its ceiling as a number so a chart can draw it.All sourcesforecasts.anchor.fes-2023-one-percent.ratio

  1. In November 2023, Ottawa set this fiscal anchor: “Maintaining the 2023-24 deficit at or below the Budget 2023 projection of $40.1 billion.”ReceiptMaintaining the 2023-24 deficit at or below the Budget 2023 projection of $40.1 billion.2023 Fall Economic Statement objective: cap the 2023-24 deficitActual · 2023-11-21SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocument2023 Fall Economic StatementWhereEconomic and Fiscal Overview, section 3 "Fiscal Outlook", "Canada's Responsible Economic Plan", first of three fiscal objectivesPublishedNovember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.anchor.fes-2023-deficit-cap Ottawa's own figure for 2023-24 came in at Receipt$61,900,000,0002023-24 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), audited (Annual Financial Report 2023-24)Actual · FY2023-24How we got it−(audited budgetary balance for 2023-24, as first reported)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2023-24@2024-12-17SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2023–2024WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2023-24 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedDecember 17, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.actual: Receipt$21,800,000,000How far the 2023-24 deficit, as Ottawa counts it, overshot the fiscal anchor Ottawa set in November 2023Actual · FY2023-24How we got itaudited 2023-24 deficit − the ceiling the 2023 Fall Economic Statement set for it (the Budget 2023 projection)Inputscase.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.actual, case.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.budget-2023SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2023–2024WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2023-24 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedDecember 17, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2023: A Made-in-Canada PlanWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2023–2024 columnPublishedMarch 28, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2023-24.anchor_miss over the line. Counted in full, it had to borrow Receipt-$85,729,000,000Federal financial requirement: the cash Ottawa had to borrow in the year (negative = borrowing)Actual · FY2023-24SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Financial requirement (-)/source"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceThe budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions: loans, investments and advances, capital spending on non-financial assets, pensions and other accounts, and accruals. A negative value is the amount Ottawa had to raise by borrowing; a positive value is a source of funds. Restated series, like the budgetary balance.All sourcesseries.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2023-24 that year.
  2. Budget 2016: “The Government remains committed to returning to balanced budgets, and will do so in a responsible, realistic and transparent way.”ReceiptThe Government remains committed to returning to balanced budgets, and will do so in a responsible, realistic and transparent way.Budget 2016 pledge: return to balanced budgetsActual · 2016-03-22SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2016: Growing the Middle ClassWherePage 51, section "A Responsible Return to Balanced Budgets", first sentencePublishedMarch 22, 2016CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe same budget announced the repeal of the Federal Balanced Budget Act. The federal budget was in deficit every year from 2015-16 to 2024-25 (Fiscal Reference Tables 2025, Table 1).All sourcesforecasts.anchor.budget-2016-balanced-budgets Balanced budgets from 2015-16 through 2024-25: Receipt0Federal balanced or surplus budgets, 2015-16 to 2024-25Actual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25How we got itnumber of fiscal years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 with a budgetary balance of zero or moreInputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2015-16, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2016-17, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2017-18, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2018-19, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2019-20, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2020-21, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2021-22, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesseries.federal_surplus_years.fy2015-16-to-fy2024-25. Years Ottawa did not need to borrow, counted in full: Receipt0Years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 in which Ottawa did not need to borrow, counted in fullActual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25How we got itnumber of fiscal years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 with a financial requirement of zero or more (no borrowing needed)Inputsseries.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2015-16, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2016-17, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2017-18, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2018-19, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2019-20, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2020-21, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2021-22, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Financial requirement (-)/source"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesseries.federal_borrowing_free_years.fy2015-16-to-fy2024-25.

The pattern: lowball, then beat

The 2025-26 deficit, as Ottawa counts it: the promise, the plan, then its estimates in date order
  • The promise: the lowest forecast before the year beganReceipt$14,500,000,000The promise for 2025-26: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2025-26 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.promise
  • Budget 2025 (November 2025), seven months into the yearReceipt$78,300,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2025Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2025-26 in Budget 2025)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2025-11-04SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2025: Canada StrongWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budget 2025 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.budget-2025
  • Spring Economic Update 2026 (April 28, 2026): Ottawa's estimate after year-endReceipt$66,900,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026, after the year endedEstimate · FY2025-26How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2025-26 in the Spring Economic Update 2026, after the year ended)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.seu-2026
  • Fiscal Monitor (May 29, 2026): the preliminary result, the latest figure; the audited result comes with the Public AccountsReceipt$55,277,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), preliminary: unaudited and before year-end adjustments (Fiscal Monitor, March 2026)Preliminary · FY2025-26How we got it−(preliminary budgetary balance for 2025-26, before year-end adjustments)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.preliminary

Source: Department of Finance CanadaReceipt$14,500,000,000The promise for 2025-26: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2025-26 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.promise

Projections for future years start low. By the time the year arrives, they have been revised far higher. Then, in the year itself, Ottawa posts a high forecast and comes in under it. Take 2025-26: before the year began, Ottawa's lowest forecast for it, the promise, was Receipt$14,500,000,000The promise for 2025-26: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2025-26 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.promise, in the Fall Economic Statement 2022. Budget 2025, seven months into the year, forecast Receipt$78,300,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in Budget 2025Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2025-26 in Budget 2025)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2025-11-04SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2025: Canada StrongWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budget 2025 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.budget-2025. After the year ended, the Spring Economic Update of April 28, 2026 estimated Receipt$66,900,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026, after the year endedEstimate · FY2025-26How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2025-26 in the Spring Economic Update 2026, after the year ended)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.seu-2026, and Receipt-$105,300,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Estimate · FY2025-26SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2025–2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2025-26 to borrow. A month later, on May 29, the Fiscal Monitor's preliminary result, the latest figure, came in at Receipt$55,277,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), preliminary: unaudited and before year-end adjustments (Fiscal Monitor, March 2026)Preliminary · FY2025-26How we got it−(preliminary budgetary balance for 2025-26, before year-end adjustments)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.preliminary: Receipt$23,023,000,000How far the preliminary 2025-26 deficit, before year-end adjustments, came in under the Budget 2025 forecast, both as Ottawa counts the deficitForecast · FY2025-26How we got it2025-26 deficit forecast in Budget 2025 − preliminary 2025-26 deficit, before year-end adjustmentsInputscase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.budget-2025, case.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.preliminarySourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2025: Canada StrongWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budget 2025 budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.beat under the Budget 2025 forecast. Even so, it is Receipt381.2%Preliminary 2025-26 deficit as a multiple of the promise, the lowest forecast before the year, both as Ottawa counts the deficit (times)Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itpreliminary 2025-26 deficit ÷ the promise, the lowest 2025-26 deficit forecast before the year (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputscase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.preliminary, case.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.promiseSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.prelim_multiple times the promise, and counted in full, the same preliminary table shows Ottawa had to borrow Receipt-$103,689,000,000Federal financial requirement for 2025-26, preliminary: the cash Ottawa had to borrow (negative = borrowing)Preliminary · FY2025-26SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Financial source/requirement", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceUnaudited result before year-end adjustments, from the same table as the preliminary budgetary balance (forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26): the balance plus non-budgetary transactions. The audited figure comes with the Public Accounts 2025-26.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.fiscal-monitor-2026-03. The preliminary result is unaudited and before year-end adjustments; the audited result comes with the Public Accounts 2025-26.

It is a habit, not a one-off. In Receipt6Audited years in which the deficit, as Ottawa counts it, came in smaller than that year's budget planActual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget-year deficit plans (Budgets 2015-2024) against first-reported actuals (Annual Financial Reports 2015-16 to 2024-25), tallied by drained.caWhereBudget 2015 T5.2.4; Budget 2016 T A1.2; Budget 2017 T A1.5; Budget 2018 T A1.2; Budget 2019 T A1.2; Budget 2021 T A1.4; Budget 2022 T A1.4; Budget 2023 T A1.5; Budget 2024 T A1.5; AFR Table 1 or 2 for each yearPublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSmaller than plan: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2024-25. Larger: 2015-16, 2019-20, 2023-24. 2020-21 had no budget. The plans for 2016-17 to 2018-19 carried padding (Budget 2016's forecast adjustment, then Budgets 2017 and 2018's adjustment for risk), and the count holds without it (S-072): each of those three years came in below even the promise, the smallest forecast for the year before it began with the padding taken out (forecasts.balance_lowest_before_year.canada), and no budget plan for the year, without its padding, is smaller than that.All sourcescase.promises.plan_beaten_years.fy2015-16_to_fy2024-25 of the last Receipt10Audited fiscal years compared (FY2015-16 to FY2024-25)Actual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget-year deficit plans (Budgets 2015-2024) against first-reported actuals (Annual Financial Reports 2015-16 to 2024-25), tallied by drained.caWhereAs abovePublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.audited_years.fy2015-16_to_fy2024-25 audited years, the deficit as Ottawa counts it came in smaller than that year's budget plan, while projections for the years ahead kept being revised up.

The numbers in this section · 45

  • The promise for 2026-27: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022

    Receipt$3,400,000,000The promise for 2026-27: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2026-27 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.promise

  • 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026

    Receipt$65,300,000,0002026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), as projected in the Spring Economic Update 2026Forecast · FY2026-27How we got it−(budgetary balance for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2026-27.deficit.seu-2026

  • The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)

    Receipt1,920.6%The 2026-27 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance) in the Spring Economic Update 2026, as a multiple of the promise for it (times)Forecast · FY2026-27How we got itdeficit for 2026-27 in the Spring Economic Update 2026 ÷ the promise for 2026-27, the smallest deficit Finance Canada forecast for it before the year began (Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2022-11-03, forecasts.balance_projections.fy2026-27@2026-04-28SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.7 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Spring Update 2026 budgetary balance", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesforecasts.projection_multiple.fy2026-27

  • Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)

    Receipt-$133,400,000,000Federal financial requirement in the Spring Economic Update 2026: the cash Ottawa must borrow (negative = borrowing)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Financial source (requirement)", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the source2025-26 is an estimate: the year has ended, and the audited result comes with the Public Accounts. 2026-27 is the government's projection. Each equals the budgetary balance plus non-budgetary transactions, as in the Fiscal Reference Tables series.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.spring-update-2026@FY2026-27

  • Federal non-budgetary transactions, 2026-27 (negative = cash out)

    Receipt-$68,100,000,000Federal non-budgetary transactions, 2026-27 (negative = cash out)Forecast · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.10 (The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions, and Financial Source/Requirement), row "Total non-budgetary transactions", 2026–2027 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceCash that leaves outside the budgetary balance: loans and investments, capital spending, and accounts that net against them. Added to the budgetary balance, it gives the financial requirement.All sourcesforecasts.nonbudgetary_total.fy2026-27

  • 2023-24 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), audited (Annual Financial Report 2023-24)

    Receipt$61,900,000,0002023-24 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), audited (Annual Financial Report 2023-24)Actual · FY2023-24How we got it−(audited budgetary balance for 2023-24, as first reported)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2023-24@2024-12-17SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2023–2024WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2023-24 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedDecember 17, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.actual

  • How far the 2023-24 deficit, as Ottawa counts it, overshot the fiscal anchor Ottawa set in November 2023

    Receipt$21,800,000,000How far the 2023-24 deficit, as Ottawa counts it, overshot the fiscal anchor Ottawa set in November 2023Actual · FY2023-24How we got itaudited 2023-24 deficit − the ceiling the 2023 Fall Economic Statement set for it (the Budget 2023 projection)Inputscase.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.actual, case.promises.fy2023-24.deficit.budget-2023SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentAnnual Financial Report of the Government of Canada, Fiscal Year 2023–2024WhereTable 2, Financial Highlights, row "Budgetary balance", 2023-24 column (audited result as first reported)PublishedDecember 17, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentBudget 2023: A Made-in-Canada PlanWhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2023–2024 columnPublishedMarch 28, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2023-24.anchor_miss

  • Federal balanced or surplus budgets, 2015-16 to 2024-25

    Receipt0Federal balanced or surplus budgets, 2015-16 to 2024-25Actual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25How we got itnumber of fiscal years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 with a budgetary balance of zero or moreInputsseries.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2015-16, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2016-17, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2017-18, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2018-19, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2019-20, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2020-21, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2021-22, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_budgetary_balance.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Budgetary surplus or deficit (–)"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesseries.federal_surplus_years.fy2015-16-to-fy2024-25

  • Years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 in which Ottawa did not need to borrow, counted in full

    Receipt0Years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 in which Ottawa did not need to borrow, counted in fullActual · FY2015-16 to FY2024-25How we got itnumber of fiscal years from 2015-16 to 2024-25 with a financial requirement of zero or more (no borrowing needed)Inputsseries.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2015-16, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2016-17, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2017-18, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2018-19, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2019-20, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2020-21, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2021-22, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2022-23, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2023-24, series.federal_financial_requirement.canada@FY2024-25SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFiscal Reference Tables 2025WherePart 1, Table 1, Fiscal transactions (millions of dollars), column "Financial requirement (-)/source"PublishedNovember 7, 2025CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesseries.federal_borrowing_free_years.fy2015-16-to-fy2024-25

  • The promise for 2025-26: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022

    Receipt$14,500,000,000The promise for 2025-26: the lowest deficit Ottawa forecast for the year before it began, as it counts the deficit (the budgetary balance), in Fall Economic Statement 2022Forecast · FY2025-26How we got it−(the smallest budgetary balance Finance Canada forecast for 2025-26 before the year began, in Fall Economic Statement 2022)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2022-11-03SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentFall Economic Statement 2022WhereAnnex 1, Table A1.5 (Summary Statement of Transactions), row "Budgetary balance", 2025–2026 columnPublishedNovember 3, 2022CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.promise

  • 2025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), preliminary: unaudited and before year-end adjustments (Fiscal Monitor, March 2026)

    Receipt$55,277,000,0002025-26 deficit as Ottawa counts it (the budgetary balance), preliminary: unaudited and before year-end adjustments (Fiscal Monitor, March 2026)Preliminary · FY2025-26How we got it−(preliminary budgetary balance for 2025-26, before year-end adjustments)Inputsforecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26@2026-05-29SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.promises.fy2025-26.deficit.preliminary

  • Federal financial requirement for 2025-26, preliminary: the cash Ottawa had to borrow (negative = borrowing)

    Receipt-$103,689,000,000Federal financial requirement for 2025-26, preliminary: the cash Ottawa had to borrow (negative = borrowing)Preliminary · FY2025-26SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentThe Fiscal Monitor, March 2026WhereTable 1, Summary statement of transactions, row "Financial source/requirement", April to March 2025-26 columnPublishedMay 29, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceUnaudited result before year-end adjustments, from the same table as the preliminary budgetary balance (forecasts.balance_projections.fy2025-26): the balance plus non-budgetary transactions. The audited figure comes with the Public Accounts 2025-26.All sourcesforecasts.financial_requirement.fiscal-monitor-2026-03

All sections
Next · 04 of 11An Aristocracy by 2040?

Section 4 of 11

The Government's Own Foresight Scenario: An Aristocracy by 2040

This is not an opposition attack. This is what the federal government's own foresight unit published.

1 min read · 7 receipts in this section

In January 2025, Policy Horizons Canada, the federal government's foresight organization, reporting through Employment and Social Development Canada, published “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question”: a scenario of Canada in 2040 that it calls plausible.ReceiptJanuary 10, 2025Policy Horizons Canada publishes 'Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question', a 2040 scenario it calls plausibleActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereIntroduction (scenario framing) and DisclaimerPublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePolicy Horizons reports through the Deputy Minister of Employment and Social Development Canada (Policy Horizons, 'About us': https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/about-us/index.shtml).All sourcescase.policy_horizons.future_lives.published

These are their words:

On a New Aristocracy:

“Society increasingly resembles an aristocracy. Wealth and status pass down the generations.”ReceiptSociety increasingly resembles an aristocracy. Wealth and status pass down the generations.Policy Horizons Canada, 2040 scenario: wealth and statusActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereSection 2.3, 'Intergenerational wealth'PublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFrom a 2040 scenario Policy Horizons calls plausible but neither desired nor preferred. The brief's disclaimer says its content does not necessarily represent Government of Canada views.All sourcescase.quote.policy_horizons.aristocracy

On Hunting for Survival:

“People may start to hunt, fish, and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations.”ReceiptPeople may start to hunt, fish, and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations.Policy Horizons Canada, 2040 scenario: hunting and foragingActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereSection 3.4, 'People might find alternative ways to meet their basic needs'PublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.quote.policy_horizons.hunt

Note: They are not describing recreation. They are describing survival.

On Government Irrelevance:

“Governments may come to seem irrelevant if they cannot enforce basic regulations or if people increasingly rely on grass-roots solutions to meeting basic needs.”ReceiptGovernments may come to seem irrelevant if they cannot enforce basic regulations or if people increasingly rely on grass-roots solutions to meeting basic needs.Policy Horizons Canada, 2040 scenario: governments seen as irrelevantActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereSection 3.4PublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.quote.policy_horizons.irrelevant

Source: Policy Horizons Canada: Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question (January 2025) (opens in a new tab)

The numbers in this section · 7

  • Policy Horizons Canada publishes 'Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question', a 2040 scenario it calls plausible

    ReceiptJanuary 10, 2025Policy Horizons Canada publishes 'Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question', a 2040 scenario it calls plausibleActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereIntroduction (scenario framing) and DisclaimerPublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePolicy Horizons reports through the Deputy Minister of Employment and Social Development Canada (Policy Horizons, 'About us': https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/about-us/index.shtml).All sourcescase.policy_horizons.future_lives.published

All sections
Next · 05 of 11The Toxic Relationship

Section 5 of 11

The Toxic Relationship

Ottawa takes. Quebec takes. Alberta gives. This has been the pattern for 60 years.

3 min read · 39 receipts in this section

The Extraction

What left Alberta each year: federal revenue raised here minus federal spending here

$ billions · 2007 to 2024
  1. 2007: $22.2B
  2. 2008: $22.5B
  3. 2009: $17.7B
  4. 2010: $16.6B
  5. 2011: $17.9B
  6. 2012: $19.2B
  7. 2013: $23.5B
  8. Receipt$27,056,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2014SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@20142014
  9. 2015: $24.8B
  10. 2016: $16.0B
  11. 2017: $14.6B
  12. 2018: $17.5B
  13. 2019: $14.4B
  14. Receipt-$16,856,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2020SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@20202020
  15. 2021: $1.6B
  16. 2022: $17.1B
  17. 2023: $18.7B
  18. Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@20242024
Source: Statistics CanadaReceipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_historyFederal general government, national-accounts basis. The Canada Pension Plan sits outside the table on both sides.
Show the numbers

  • Net federal take per Albertan, 2024

    Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024

    See spending breakdown

  • Left Alberta in 2024, net (Statistics Canada)

    Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

    Ottawa collected Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024 here and spent Receipt$54,354,000,000Federal government spending in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments expenditure; 2024 (vector v107650120, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_spending.2024.

  • Net contribution since 2000 (adjusted estimate, Fairness Alberta)

    Receipt$544,000,000,000Albertans' net contribution to the rest of Canada, 2000 to 2023 (Fairness Alberta's adjusted estimate)Estimate · 2000 to 2023SourceFairness AlbertaDocumentFiscal FairnessWhereIntroductory note: "From 2000-2023, the adjusted balance from Albertans to the rest of Canada was $544 billion" (citing Finances of the Nation, Federal Fiscal Balances)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis by an advocacy group, not an official statistic. It uses Finances of the Nation's "adjusted" balance, which includes the Canada Pension Plan and credits Albertans with a per-person share of federal borrowing, so it is larger than federal revenue minus federal spending. Statistics Canada's unadjusted figures, which exclude the CPP, are listed separately.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_contribution_fairness_alberta.2000-2023

  • Equalization received since 1965Receipt$0Equalization paid to Alberta since 1965Actual · 1965-2026SourceIRPP, Policy OptionsDocumentA short history of equalizationWhereSection on the program's early years (1962-64 formula changes ended Alberta's eligibility)PublishedMarch 1, 2007CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis. Secondary sources date Alberta's last payment to 1963-64 or 1964-65; none since. Current year: transfers.equalization.ab.fy2026-27 = $0 (Finance Canada).All sourcescase.equalization.alberta.none_since_1965

    Receipt$0Equalization payment to Alberta, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 column (shown as "-", nil)PublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReceives no Equalization payment this year.All sourcestransfers.equalization.ab.fy2026-27

Alberta's net federal balance, by year
YearNet out of Alberta
2007$22.2B
2008$22.5B
2009$17.7B
2010$16.6B
2011$17.9B
2012$19.2B
2013$23.5B
2014$27.1B
2015$24.8B
2016$16.0B
2017$14.6B
2018$17.5B
2019$14.4B
2020-$16.9B
2021$1.6B
2022$17.1B
2023$18.7B
2024$19.0B
Equalization, 2026-27: Quebec takes Receipt51.2%Quebec's share of Equalization, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec ÷ total EqualizationInputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_share.fy2026-27 of the program. What does Alberta get in return?
  • Quebec receivesReceipt$13,907,000,000Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27
  • Albertans' share of that bill, through their federal taxes (about)Receipt$2,095,867,324Albertans' implied share of Quebec's Equalization payment, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec × Alberta's share of federal revenue (2024)Inputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.alberta.federal_revenue_share.2024SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate, on the same method as Albertans' implied share of Equalization: Ottawa pays Equalization from general revenue and no Alberta tax is earmarked for Quebec.All sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_alberta_implied_cost.fy2026-27
  • Alberta receivesReceipt$0Equalization payment to Alberta, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 column (shown as "-", nil)PublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReceives no Equalization payment this year.All sourcestransfers.equalization.ab.fy2026-27

Source: Department of Finance CanadaReceipt$13,907,000,000Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27

  • Quebec fought Energy East until TransCanada killed it (2017). Montreal's mayor took credit.ReceiptOctober 5, 2017TransCanada drops Energy East; Montreal's mayor says he is proud of his part and Quebec's PQ leader calls it a great victoryActual · 2017-10-05SourceCBC NewsDocumentQuebec politicians, environmentalists hail demise of controversial Energy East pipelineWhereArticle bodyPublishedOctober 5, 2017CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceTransCanada cited regulatory delays and costs; Quebec had no veto.All sourcesaccountability.energy_east.cancelled.2017-10-05
  • Quebec rejected GNL Québec (2021), which would have exported Western Canadian gas.ReceiptJuly 21, 2021Quebec's government rejects GNL Québec's Énergie Saguenay LNG plant, which would have exported Western Canadian gasActual · 2021-07-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentQuebec nixes LNG plant that would have carried Western Canadian natural gas to markets overseasWhereArticle body (Environment Minister Benoit Charette announces the rejection)PublishedJuly 21, 2021CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. The decision covered the Énergie Saguenay liquefaction plant; Quebec said that without it the connecting Gazoduq pipeline was very unlikely to go ahead.All sourcesaccountability.gnl_quebec.rejected.2021-07-21
  • Federal government cancelled Northern Gateway (2016).ReceiptNovember 29, 2016Federal cabinet approves Trans Mountain and Line 3, rejects Northern GatewayActual · 2016-11-29SourceCBC NewsDocumentTrudeau cabinet approves Trans Mountain, Line 3 pipelines, rejects Northern GatewayWhereArticle textPublishedNovember 29, 2016CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting.All sourcescase.pipelines.federal_decisions.2016-11-29
  • Trans Mountain: proposed 2012ReceiptMay 2012Kinder Morgan Canada announces the Trans Mountain Expansion ProjectActual · 2012SourceTrans Mountain CorporationDocumentProject Rundown: 2012 to TodayWhereProject timeline (May 2012 announcement)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePublished 2017.All sourcescase.pipelines.tmx.announced, approved 2016ReceiptNovember 29, 2016Federal cabinet approves Trans Mountain and Line 3, rejects Northern GatewayActual · 2016-11-29SourceCBC NewsDocumentTrudeau cabinet approves Trans Mountain, Line 3 pipelines, rejects Northern GatewayWhereArticle textPublishedNovember 29, 2016CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting.All sourcescase.pipelines.federal_decisions.2016-11-29, completed 2024.ReceiptMay 1, 2024Trans Mountain Expansion enters commercial serviceActual · 2024-05-01SourceGlobal NewsDocument$34B Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project opens after years of constructionWhereArticle textPublishedMay 1, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting.All sourcescase.pipelines.tmx.in_service 12 years. 6.3xReceipt6.3Trans Mountain expansion: final cost as a multiple of the 2013 estimate (times)Estimate · 2013 to 2024How we got itTrans Mountain expansion's total cost (PBO, 2024) ÷ its 2013 estimateInputsaccountability.tmx.cost.2024, accountability.tmx.estimate.2013SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentTrans Mountain Pipeline – 2024 Report (RP-2425-021-S)WhereSummary (total project cost estimate rose from $21.4 billion to $34.2 billion)PublishedNovember 8, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceKinder MorganDocumentTrans Mountain Files Facilities Expansion Application with the National Energy BoardWhereNews release text ('proposed $5.4 billion project')PublishedDecember 16, 2013CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesaccountability.tmx.cost_multiple.2013-2024 the original estimate.
  • Quebec politicians call Alberta oil “dirty energy”Receiptdirty energyQuebec Premier François Legault on a pipeline through QuebecActual · 2018-12SourceCBC NewsDocumentQuebec premier accused of not understanding Alberta's energy industryWhereArticle textCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. Legault said a pipeline carrying 'dirty energy' had no social acceptability in Quebec. Published 2018-12.All sourcescase.quote.legault.dirty_energy while cashing Alberta's cheques.

The Cap Ottawa Backed Down On

Ottawa's proposed emissions cap targeted Alberta's core industry while exempting central Canadian manufacturing. Ottawa backed down on ReceiptNovember 27, 2025Canada commits not to implement the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap (Canada-Alberta MOU)Actual · 2025-11-27SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentCanada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (backgrounder)WhereSection on the Oil and Gas Emissions CapPublishedNovember 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn implementation agreement followed on May 15, 2026 (Prime Minister's Office).All sourcescase.mou.cap_not_implemented, writing in its deal with Alberta: “Canada will not implement the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap.”ReceiptCanada will not implement the Oil and Gas Emissions CapCanada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, November 27, 2025Actual · 2025-11-27SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentCanada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (backgrounder)WhereSection on the Oil and Gas Emissions CapPublishedNovember 27, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe sentence continues by noting the cap had not yet been put into effect.All sourcescase.quote.mou.cap In a January 2024 report for the Government of Alberta, the Conference Board of Canada, a non-partisan research organization, estimated what the cap would have cost:

Jobs the cap would have cost by 2030 (Conference Board of Canada, January 2024)
  • Most likely scenarioReceipt82,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed cap, most likely scenarioEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 1 (75% methane reduction), rated most likely by the report.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.low
  • High scenarioUp to Receipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high

Source: The Conference Board of CanadaReceipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high

Range across the Conference Board's three scenarios: Receipt82,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed cap, most likely scenarioEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 1 (75% methane reduction), rated most likely by the report.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.low (rated most likely) to 151,000 jobs in 2030, and Receipt$597,000,000,000Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, most likely scenarioEstimate · 2030-2040SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 9 ($247 billion real 2012 dollars, $597 billion nominal)PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.low to up to Receipt$1,000,000,000,000Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, upper bound (Conference Board analysis for Alberta)Estimate · 2030-2040SourceGovernment of Alberta (Environment and Protected Areas)DocumentProposed Federal Regulatory Framework for an Oil and Gas Sector Emissions Cap: Government of Alberta Technical SubmissionWherep. 13, table 'New analysis from the Conference Board of Canada', row 'Lost GDP'; cover letter p. 1PublishedFebruary 2, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRange given: $600 billion to $1 trillion. The Conference Board report gives $597 billion for its most likely scenario (case.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.low). PDF undated; file created Feb 2, 2024.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.high in lost GDP over 2030-40 (nominal).

Deloitte, in a June 2024 report for the Government of Alberta, found carbon capture “economically unviable”Receipteconomically unviableDeloitte, report for the Government of Alberta on the emissions cap (June 2024), on carbon capture 'in many cases'Estimate · 2024-06SourceGlobal News (The Canadian Press)DocumentReport by Deloitte suggests emissions cap not possible without oil, gas production cutsWhereArticle textPublishedJune 18, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting of the report. The same report projects 54,000 fewer Alberta jobs in 2030 with the cap.All sourcescase.quote.deloitte.ccs in many cases. Production cuts were the only realistic way to comply. The policy was designed to kill production.

Every job Alberta loses to federal policy is a job that could exist in Texas, Louisiana, or North Dakota instead. Meanwhile, federal debt continues to climb.

The numbers in this section · 39

  • Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024

    Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024

  • Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar year

    Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

  • Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar year

    Receipt$27,056,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2014SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2014

  • Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar year

    Receipt-$16,856,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2020SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2020

  • Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024

    Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024

  • Federal government spending in Alberta, 2024

    Receipt$54,354,000,000Federal government spending in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments expenditure; 2024 (vector v107650120, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_spending.2024

  • Albertans' net contribution to the rest of Canada, 2000 to 2023 (Fairness Alberta's adjusted estimate)

    Receipt$544,000,000,000Albertans' net contribution to the rest of Canada, 2000 to 2023 (Fairness Alberta's adjusted estimate)Estimate · 2000 to 2023SourceFairness AlbertaDocumentFiscal FairnessWhereIntroductory note: "From 2000-2023, the adjusted balance from Albertans to the rest of Canada was $544 billion" (citing Finances of the Nation, Federal Fiscal Balances)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAnalysis by an advocacy group, not an official statistic. It uses Finances of the Nation's "adjusted" balance, which includes the Canada Pension Plan and credits Albertans with a per-person share of federal borrowing, so it is larger than federal revenue minus federal spending. Statistics Canada's unadjusted figures, which exclude the CPP, are listed separately.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_contribution_fairness_alberta.2000-2023

  • Equalization payment to Alberta, 2026-27

    Receipt$0Equalization payment to Alberta, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 column (shown as "-", nil)PublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReceives no Equalization payment this year.All sourcestransfers.equalization.ab.fy2026-27

  • Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27

    Receipt$13,907,000,000Equalization payment to Quebec, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27

  • Quebec's share of Equalization, 2026-27

    Receipt51.2%Quebec's share of Equalization, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec ÷ total EqualizationInputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.equalization.total.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_share.fy2026-27

  • Albertans' implied share of Quebec's Equalization payment, 2026-27

    Receipt$2,095,867,324Albertans' implied share of Quebec's Equalization payment, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itEqualization to Quebec × Alberta's share of federal revenue (2024)Inputstransfers.equalization.qc.fy2026-27, transfers.alberta.federal_revenue_share.2024SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Quebec" (millions of dollars), "Equalization" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate, on the same method as Albertans' implied share of Equalization: Ottawa pays Equalization from general revenue and no Alberta tax is earmarked for Quebec.All sourcestransfers.equalization.qc_alberta_implied_cost.fy2026-27

  • Trans Mountain expansion: final cost as a multiple of the 2013 estimate (times)

    6.3xReceipt6.3Trans Mountain expansion: final cost as a multiple of the 2013 estimate (times)Estimate · 2013 to 2024How we got itTrans Mountain expansion's total cost (PBO, 2024) ÷ its 2013 estimateInputsaccountability.tmx.cost.2024, accountability.tmx.estimate.2013SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentTrans Mountain Pipeline – 2024 Report (RP-2425-021-S)WhereSummary (total project cost estimate rose from $21.4 billion to $34.2 billion)PublishedNovember 8, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceKinder MorganDocumentTrans Mountain Files Facilities Expansion Application with the National Energy BoardWhereNews release text ('proposed $5.4 billion project')PublishedDecember 16, 2013CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesaccountability.tmx.cost_multiple.2013-2024

  • Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenarios

    Receipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high

  • Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed cap, most likely scenario

    Receipt82,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed cap, most likely scenarioEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 1 (75% methane reduction), rated most likely by the report.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.low

  • Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, upper bound (Conference Board analysis for Alberta)

    Receipt$1,000,000,000,000Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, upper bound (Conference Board analysis for Alberta)Estimate · 2030-2040SourceGovernment of Alberta (Environment and Protected Areas)DocumentProposed Federal Regulatory Framework for an Oil and Gas Sector Emissions Cap: Government of Alberta Technical SubmissionWherep. 13, table 'New analysis from the Conference Board of Canada', row 'Lost GDP'; cover letter p. 1PublishedFebruary 2, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceRange given: $600 billion to $1 trillion. The Conference Board report gives $597 billion for its most likely scenario (case.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.low). PDF undated; file created Feb 2, 2024.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.high

  • Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, most likely scenario

    Receipt$597,000,000,000Cumulative nominal GDP lost across Canada, 2030-2040, most likely scenarioEstimate · 2030-2040SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 9 ($247 billion real 2012 dollars, $597 billion nominal)PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.cboc.cap.gdp_loss_nominal.2030-2040.low

All sections
Next · 06 of 11What It Costs Your Family

Section 6 of 11

What It Costs Your Family

The fiscal transfer is not abstract. Here is what it means for your household.

1 min read · 11 receipts in this section

One Alberta household's bill, 2024: what is counted, and what is shown beside it

Per household · the hatched parts are not added
The cost of federation per household
CountedNet federal take, per household, 2024Counted in the total.Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024
Not addedClean Fuel Regulations, per household, 2030 (PBO estimate)Not added: a 2030 estimate, and not federal revenue.Receipt$1,157Clean Fuel Regulations: estimated cost to the average Alberta household in 2030Estimate · 2030SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentA Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations (RP-2324-004-S)WhereSummary and news release of May 18, 2023 (Alberta: 0.80% of disposable income, or $1,157)PublishedMay 18, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNot federal revenue, so it is not inside the net federal balance.All sourcescase.pbo.cfr.alberta_household_cost.2030
Not addedCPP: what an Alberta plan could save, per worker, 2027 (Alberta's LifeWorks study, 2023)Not added: per worker, and independent estimates are smaller but still positive.up to Receipt$1,425Contribution saving per Alberta employee (and per employer) under an Alberta Pension Plan, 2027Estimate · 2027SourceLifeWorks (TELUS Health), for Alberta Treasury Board and FinanceDocumentAlberta Pension Plan – Analysis of Costs, Benefits, Risks and ConsiderationsWherep. 5 (summary) and p. 12: savings of up to $1,425 per employee; p. 4: Base APP rate 5.91% vs 9.54% CPP minimum and 9.90% legislatedPublishedSeptember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAssumes Alberta receives 53% of CPP assets, a basis Canada's Chief Actuary rejected (December 2024).All sourcescase.lifeworks.app.savings_per_employee.2027
Total annual cost of federation, per household (2024)$10,117+Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024
Source: Statistics CanadaReceipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024
Show the numbers

  • Net federal take per Albertan, 2024

    Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024

    Shown for context; the total is per household.

That is Receipt$843Net federal take per Alberta household, per month, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal take per Alberta household (2024) ÷ 12 monthsInputscase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household_monthly.2024 a month. A car payment. Two weeks of groceries. Your annual vacation budget.

Over a 40-year career, it is Receipt$404,662Net federal take per Alberta household over a 40-year career, in 2024 dollarsEstimate · 2024How we got itnet federal take per Alberta household (2024) × 40 yearsInputscase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe 2024 figure repeated for 40 years: no growth, inflation or interest is added.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household_40yr.2024 in 2024 dollars. That is a house. A retirement fund. Your children's education. Instead, it goes to Ottawa, where it funds transfer payments to provinces that block your pipelines.

Calculate your personal tax burden →

The numbers in this section · 11

  • Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024

    Receipt$3,876Net federal balance per Albertan, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance in Alberta, 2024 ÷ population of Alberta on July 1, 2024Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024, population.alberta.2024-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta, per person. It is not Equalization.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024

  • Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024

    Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024

  • Net federal take per Alberta household, per month, 2024

    Receipt$843Net federal take per Alberta household, per month, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal take per Alberta household (2024) ÷ 12 monthsInputscase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household_monthly.2024

  • Net federal take per Alberta household over a 40-year career, in 2024 dollars

    Receipt$404,662Net federal take per Alberta household over a 40-year career, in 2024 dollarsEstimate · 2024How we got itnet federal take per Alberta household (2024) × 40 yearsInputscase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe 2024 figure repeated for 40 years: no growth, inflation or interest is added.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household_40yr.2024

  • Clean Fuel Regulations: estimated cost to the average Alberta household in 2030

    Receipt$1,157Clean Fuel Regulations: estimated cost to the average Alberta household in 2030Estimate · 2030SourceOffice of the Parliamentary Budget OfficerDocumentA Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations (RP-2324-004-S)WhereSummary and news release of May 18, 2023 (Alberta: 0.80% of disposable income, or $1,157)PublishedMay 18, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNot federal revenue, so it is not inside the net federal balance.All sourcescase.pbo.cfr.alberta_household_cost.2030

  • Contribution saving per Alberta employee (and per employer) under an Alberta Pension Plan, 2027

    Receipt$1,425Contribution saving per Alberta employee (and per employer) under an Alberta Pension Plan, 2027Estimate · 2027SourceLifeWorks (TELUS Health), for Alberta Treasury Board and FinanceDocumentAlberta Pension Plan – Analysis of Costs, Benefits, Risks and ConsiderationsWherep. 5 (summary) and p. 12: savings of up to $1,425 per employee; p. 4: Base APP rate 5.91% vs 9.54% CPP minimum and 9.90% legislatedPublishedSeptember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAssumes Alberta receives 53% of CPP assets, a basis Canada's Chief Actuary rejected (December 2024).All sourcescase.lifeworks.app.savings_per_employee.2027

  • Federal income taxes from corporations and government business enterprises in Alberta, 2024

    Receipt$17,462,000,000Federal income taxes from corporations and government business enterprises in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta, Federal general government, From corporations and government business enterprises, 2024 (v107650074)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.statcan.alberta.federal_corporate_income_taxes.2024

  • Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024

    Receipt$73,354,000,000Federal government revenue collected in Alberta, 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue.All sourcestransfers.alberta.federal_revenue.2024

All sections
Next · 07 of 11Geopolitical Miscalculation

Section 7 of 11

Carney's Geopolitical Miscalculation

Physical power determines outcomes. Davos speeches do not.

3 min read · 35 receipts in this section

Prime Minister Carney believes rhetorical alliances with “middle powers”Receiptmiddle powersPrime Minister Mark Carney's special address at the World Economic Forum, DavosActual · 2026-01-20SourceWorld Economic ForumDocumentDavos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of CanadaWhereSpeech textPublishedJanuary 20, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.quote.carney.middle_powers can substitute for physical access to the world's largest economy. This is a fundamental mathematical error.

Canada's exports that went to the United States, 2025
  • Goods exportsReceipt71.7%Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentThe Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025WhereAnnual review section (US share fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025)PublishedFebruary 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLowest share since the early 1980s.All sourcescase.trade.us_share_goods_exports.2025
  • Crude oil exportsReceipt90.1%Share of Canada's crude oil exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceCanada Energy RegulatorDocumentMarket Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy TradeWhereCrude oil section (4.3 MMb/d exported; 90.1%, or 3.9 MMb/d, to the U.S.)PublishedMay 27, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source93% in 2024.All sourcescase.cer.crude_exports_us_share.2025

Source: Statistics Canada · Canada Energy RegulatorReceipt71.7%Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentThe Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025WhereAnnual review section (US share fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025)PublishedFebruary 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLowest share since the early 1980s.All sourcescase.trade.us_share_goods_exports.2025

January 2026: The China Pivot

  • Carney signed a deal with China: Receipt49,000Chinese-built EVs allowed into Canada each year at the MFN tariff under the January 2026 arrangementActual · 2026SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People's Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and tradeWhereNews release (Preliminary Joint Arrangement)PublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceQuota to rise about 6.5% a year.All sourcescase.china_deal.ev_quota EVs a year at a reduced Receipt6.1%Tariff on Chinese-built EVs within the quota (most-favoured-nation rate)Actual · 2026SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People's Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and tradeWhereNews release (Preliminary Joint Arrangement)PublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceDown from 100%.All sourcescase.china_deal.ev_tariff tariff
  • Trump responded with threat of Receipt100.0%Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China dealActual · 2026-01SourceFox BusinessDocumentCanadian PM insists country has no plans for China free trade after US tariff threatWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. R-1 dates the threat to January 24, 2026.All sourcescase.us.tariff_threat.2026-01 tariffs on all Canadian goods
  • USMCA Article 32.10 lets the US tear up the agreement on Receipt6Months' notice on which the other Parties may terminate CUSMA after a Party enters an FTA with a non-market countryActual · 2020-SourceGlobal Affairs CanadaDocumentCanada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), Chapter 32: Exceptions and General ProvisionsWhereArticle 32.10, paragraphs 2 and 5PublishedJuly 1, 2020CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePara. 2: three months' notice before starting negotiations. Para. 5: termination right is triggered by entry into the FTA.All sourcescase.cusma.art_32_10.notice_months months' notice if Canada signs a free trade deal with China.

The US Response

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed Carney's posturing as “political noise”Receiptpolitical noiseUS Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Carney's Davos speech (Bloomberg interview at Davos)Actual · 2026-01SourceGlobal NewsDocumentCarney's Davos speech 'political noise,' may jeopardize CUSMA, Lutnick saysWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 22, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceR-1 dated the report Jan 21, 2026; the page read on 2026-09-28 shows Jan 22.All sourcescase.quote.lutnick.political_noise and warned it could jeopardize the CUSMA renegotiation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on ABC's This Week (January 25, 2026), questioned what Carney was doing at Davos “other than trying to virtue-signal to his globalist friends.”Receiptother than trying to virtue-signal to his globalist friendsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Carney at Davos, ABC's This WeekActual · 2026-01-25SourceFox BusinessDocumentCanadian PM insists country has no plans for China free trade after US tariff threatWhereArticle text (quoting ABC's This Week, Sunday Jan 25, 2026)PublishedJanuary 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe full sentence ends 'at Davos'.All sourcescase.quote.bessent.virtue_signal In an interview recorded at Davos, he called Alberta “a natural partner”Receipta natural partnerUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Alberta (Real America's Voice interview recorded at Davos)Actual · 2026-01-23SourceGlobal NewsDocumentBessent says an independent Alberta would be 'natural partner' for U.S.WhereArticle text (Real America's Voice interview at the World Economic Forum, Davos)PublishedJanuary 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting.All sourcescase.quote.bessent.natural_partner for the United States.

A Revealing Contradiction

Carney lectures Canadians about economic nationalism. His own company moved to the US while he was board chairman:

  • October 2024: Brookfield Asset Management's board, with Carney as chair, approved moving the head office from Toronto to New York.ReceiptOctober 31, 2024Brookfield Asset Management's head office moves from Toronto to New York (board chaired by Mark Carney)Actual · 2024-10-31SourceBrookfield Asset Management Ltd. (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)DocumentMaterial change reportWhereMaterial change: head office changed to 250 Vesey Street, New York, effective Oct 31, 2024PublishedNovember 1, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReasons given: US and global index eligibility and a broader shareholder base. No mention of Canadian regulation.All sourcescase.bam.head_office_move.effective
  • October 31, 2024: The head office officially moved to New York.ReceiptOctober 31, 2024Brookfield Asset Management's head office moves from Toronto to New York (board chaired by Mark Carney)Actual · 2024-10-31SourceBrookfield Asset Management Ltd. (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)DocumentMaterial change reportWhereMaterial change: head office changed to 250 Vesey Street, New York, effective Oct 31, 2024PublishedNovember 1, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReasons given: US and global index eligibility and a broader shareholder base. No mention of Canadian regulation.All sourcescase.bam.head_office_move.effective
  • December 1, 2024: Carney signed the shareholder letter recommending the next step, a restructuring aimed at US stock-index inclusion.ReceiptDecember 1, 2024Mark Carney, as Chair, signs the letter recommending the arrangement to shareholdersActual · 2024-12-01SourceBrookfield Asset Management Ltd. (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.2)DocumentNotice of special meeting, management information circular and letter to shareholdersWhereLetter to Shareholders, signed 'Mark Carney, Chair, December 1, 2024'PublishedDecember 1, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe letter recommends the arrangement to broaden the shareholder base, reach 'the deepest pools of capital' and position BAM for major US stock-index inclusion.All sourcescase.bam.shareholder_letter.signed
  • January 16, 2025: Carney stepped down as chair to run for the Liberal leadership.ReceiptJanuary 16, 2025Mark Carney resigns as Chair of Brookfield Asset Management to seek the Liberal leadershipActual · 2025-01-16SourceBrookfield Asset Management Ltd. (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)DocumentBrookfield Asset Management appoints Bruce Flatt as Chair following Mark Carney's resignationWhereNews release textPublishedJanuary 16, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.bam.carney_stepped_down
  • February 4, 2025: The restructuring closed.ReceiptFebruary 4, 2025Brookfield Asset Management closes the arrangement to broaden ownership and index eligibilityActual · 2025-02-04SourceBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.DocumentBrookfield Asset Management Closes Transaction to Broaden Shareholder Ownership and Enhance Index EligibilityWherePress release textPublishedFebruary 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCompany press release (syndicated copy).All sourcescase.bam.arrangement_closed

Physical Power Decides

Defence money, 2025-26: NATO's count of Canada's spending, as Ottawa reports it, beside the military's own money
  • NATO's count, by NATO's estimate (Ottawa's presentation)Receipt$65,901,000,000NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNATO estimate. NATO counts spending by all departments that meets its definition, not only National Defence.All sourcesfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26
  • The military's own money: National Defence's forecast spending without the Coast GuardReceipt$44,641,442,885The military money: National Defence's 2025-26 forecast spending without the Coast GuardForecast · FY2025-26How we got itNational Defence's total − the Canadian Coast Guard's core responsibilitiesInputsfederal.defence.dnd_forecast_spending.fy2025-26, federal.defence.ccg_spending.fy2025-26SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26
  • The gap between themReceipt$21,259,557,115NATO's count of Canada's defence spending above the military money, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itNATO's count as Ottawa reports it − the military moneyInputsfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26, federal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2025-26

Source: North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Department of National DefenceReceipt$65,901,000,000NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNATO estimate. NATO counts spending by all departments that meets its definition, not only National Defence.All sourcesfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26

Dalio is explicit: in conflicts between nations, physical power determines outcomes. Rhetoric does not.

  • Canada cannot defend its Arctic independently. NORAD provides continental defence.
  • NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it, reached Receipt2.0%NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it, share of GDP, 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney announces Canada has achieved NATO 2% defence spending targetWhereNews release textPublishedMarch 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceMore than $63 billion (government); NATO estimate C$65.9 billion.All sourcescase.defence.nato_2pct.fy2025-26 of GDP in 2025-26 after intense US pressure: Receipt$65,901,000,000NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNATO estimate. NATO counts spending by all departments that meets its definition, not only National Defence.All sourcesfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26 by NATO's estimate. The military's own money that year, National Defence's forecast spending without the Coast Guard, was Receipt$44,641,442,885The military money: National Defence's 2025-26 forecast spending without the Coast GuardForecast · FY2025-26How we got itNational Defence's total − the Canadian Coast Guard's core responsibilitiesInputsfederal.defence.dnd_forecast_spending.fy2025-26, federal.defence.ccg_spending.fy2025-26SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26. The gap is Receipt$21,259,557,115NATO's count of Canada's defence spending above the military money, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itNATO's count as Ottawa reports it − the military moneyInputsfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26, federal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2025-26, or Receipt32.3%Share of NATO's count of Canada's defence spending that is not the military money, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itgap ÷ NATO's countInputsfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2025-26, federal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap_share.fy2025-26 of NATO's count. NATO's definition admits more than the military: other departments, military pensionsReceiptRetirement pensions payments made directly by the government to retired military and civilian employees of military departments and for active personnel is included in the NATO defence expenditure definition.NATO's definition of defence expenditure, on pensionsActual · 2026SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence expenditures and NATO’s 5% commitmentWhereSection "What counts as NATO defence expenditure?"CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.quote.nato_pensions.2026 and the Coast Guard. The two are counted on different bases, and the record does not split the gap.
  • The US has Receipt11US Navy aircraft carriers in the FY2026 battle forceActual · FY2026SourceUS Department of the NavyDocumentHighlights of the Department of the Navy FY 2026 BudgetWhereBattle force ship count (11 aircraft carriers)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCanada operates no aircraft carriers.All sourcescase.us_navy.aircraft_carriers.fy2026 aircraft carriers. Canada has none.
  • Geography makes the US permanently irreplaceable. Speeches at Davos cannot change physics.
The numbers in this section · 35

  • Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025

    Receipt71.7%Share of Canada's merchandise exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentThe Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025WhereAnnual review section (US share fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025)PublishedFebruary 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLowest share since the early 1980s.All sourcescase.trade.us_share_goods_exports.2025

  • Share of Canada's crude oil exports that went to the United States, 2025

    Receipt90.1%Share of Canada's crude oil exports that went to the United States, 2025Actual · 2025SourceCanada Energy RegulatorDocumentMarket Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy TradeWhereCrude oil section (4.3 MMb/d exported; 90.1%, or 3.9 MMb/d, to the U.S.)PublishedMay 27, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source93% in 2024.All sourcescase.cer.crude_exports_us_share.2025

  • Chinese-built EVs allowed into Canada each year at the MFN tariff under the January 2026 arrangement

    Receipt49,000Chinese-built EVs allowed into Canada each year at the MFN tariff under the January 2026 arrangementActual · 2026SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People's Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and tradeWhereNews release (Preliminary Joint Arrangement)PublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceQuota to rise about 6.5% a year.All sourcescase.china_deal.ev_quota

  • Tariff on Chinese-built EVs within the quota (most-favoured-nation rate)

    Receipt6.1%Tariff on Chinese-built EVs within the quota (most-favoured-nation rate)Actual · 2026SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People's Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and tradeWhereNews release (Preliminary Joint Arrangement)PublishedJanuary 16, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceDown from 100%.All sourcescase.china_deal.ev_tariff

  • Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China deal

    Receipt100.0%Tariff rate President Trump threatened on Canadian goods over the Canada-China dealActual · 2026-01SourceFox BusinessDocumentCanadian PM insists country has no plans for China free trade after US tariff threatWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting. R-1 dates the threat to January 24, 2026.All sourcescase.us.tariff_threat.2026-01

  • Months' notice on which the other Parties may terminate CUSMA after a Party enters an FTA with a non-market country

    Receipt6Months' notice on which the other Parties may terminate CUSMA after a Party enters an FTA with a non-market countryActual · 2020-SourceGlobal Affairs CanadaDocumentCanada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), Chapter 32: Exceptions and General ProvisionsWhereArticle 32.10, paragraphs 2 and 5PublishedJuly 1, 2020CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePara. 2: three months' notice before starting negotiations. Para. 5: termination right is triggered by entry into the FTA.All sourcescase.cusma.art_32_10.notice_months

  • NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it, share of GDP, 2025-26

    Receipt2.0%NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it, share of GDP, 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourcePrime Minister of CanadaDocumentPrime Minister Carney announces Canada has achieved NATO 2% defence spending targetWhereNews release textPublishedMarch 26, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceMore than $63 billion (government); NATO estimate C$65.9 billion.All sourcescase.defence.nato_2pct.fy2025-26

  • NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2025-26

    Receipt$65,901,000,000NATO's count of Canada's defence spending, as Ottawa reports it (core defence expenditure), 2025-26Estimate · FY2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNATO estimate. NATO counts spending by all departments that meets its definition, not only National Defence.All sourcesfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26

  • The military money: National Defence's 2025-26 forecast spending without the Coast Guard

    Receipt$44,641,442,885The military money: National Defence's 2025-26 forecast spending without the Coast GuardForecast · FY2025-26How we got itNational Defence's total − the Canadian Coast Guard's core responsibilitiesInputsfederal.defence.dnd_forecast_spending.fy2025-26, federal.defence.ccg_spending.fy2025-26SourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26

  • NATO's count of Canada's defence spending above the military money, 2025-26

    Receipt$21,259,557,115NATO's count of Canada's defence spending above the military money, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itNATO's count as Ottawa reports it − the military moneyInputsfederal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26, federal.defence.military_spending.fy2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2025-26

  • Share of NATO's count of Canada's defence spending that is not the military money, 2025-26

    Receipt32.3%Share of NATO's count of Canada's defence spending that is not the military money, 2025-26Forecast · FY2025-26How we got itgap ÷ NATO's countInputsfederal.defence.nato_gap.fy2025-26, federal.defence.nato_core.fy2025-26SourceNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationDocumentDefence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)WhereTable 1: Core defence expenditure, current prices, million national currency units, Canada (Canadian dollars), 2025e column (p. 5); p. 14 note: for Canada the year shown is the fiscal year that begins in itPublishedJuly 7, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Total (s)" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Navigation" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of National DefenceDocument2026-27 Departmental Plan (National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces)WherePlanned spending and human resources, Table 10.1 Three-year spending summary for core responsibilities and internal services (dollars), "2025-26 Forecast Spending" column, "Marine Operations and Response" rowPublishedMarch 13, 2026CheckedOctober 5, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesfederal.defence.nato_gap_share.fy2025-26

  • US Navy aircraft carriers in the FY2026 battle force

    Receipt11US Navy aircraft carriers in the FY2026 battle forceActual · FY2026SourceUS Department of the NavyDocumentHighlights of the Department of the Navy FY 2026 BudgetWhereBattle force ship count (11 aircraft carriers)CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCanada operates no aircraft carriers.All sourcescase.us_navy.aircraft_carriers.fy2026

All sections
Next · 08 of 11Historical Precedent

Section 8 of 11

What History Teaches Us

Those who exit declining federations early prosper. Those who stay suffer.

2 min read · 20 receipts in this section

Early Movers: Prosperity

GDP per person today, US dollars (IMF, 2025 estimates)
  • Singapore, left early (1965)US$99,365Receipt99,365.3GDP per person, Singapore, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Singapore, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.singapore.2025
  • Slovenia, left early (1991)US$37,357Receipt37,357.4GDP per person, Slovenia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Slovenia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.slovenia.2025
  • Serbia, stayed and foughtUS$15,284Receipt15,283.9GDP per person, Serbia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Serbia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.serbia.2025

Source: International Monetary FundReceipt99,365.3GDP per person, Singapore, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Singapore, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.singapore.2025

Singapore (1965) SUCCESS

Expelled from Malaysia. No natural resources. Receipt581.5Singapore's land area at independence, square kilometresActual · 1965SourceSeasia.coDocumentSingapore Is 28% Bigger Than It Was at Independence. Is It the Only One?WhereArticle text, citing Singapore Land Authority data published by the Department of Statistics SingaporePublishedJune 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUnit: square kilometres. Reporting of official data; swap in the SingStat table when located.All sourcescase.singapore.land_area.1965 square kilometres. Everyone said it would fail.

Result: GDP growth averaged Receipt12.7%Singapore's average annual real GDP growth, 1965-1973Actual · 1965-1973SourceLibrary of Congress, Federal Research DivisionDocumentSingapore: A Country StudyWhereThe Economy: 'Patterns of Development'CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCountry Studies series; mirror of the Library of Congress text.All sourcescase.singapore.gdp_growth.1965-1973 a year from 1965 to 1973. Today: GDP per person of US$99,365Receipt99,365.3GDP per person, Singapore, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Singapore, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.singapore.2025 (IMF, 2025 estimate). One of the wealthiest nations on Earth.

Czech-Slovak Velvet Divorce (1993) SUCCESS

Peaceful separation negotiated over 6 months. Assets divided 2:1 based on population. No violence.ReceiptNovember 25, 1992Czechoslovakia's elected Federal Assembly votes to dissolve the federation (effective Jan 1, 1993)Actual · 1992-11-25SourceUPIDocumentFederal Parliament votes to dissolve CzechoslovakiaWhereArticle text: amendment adopted 183-30 with 55 abstentionsPublishedNovember 25, 1992CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNo referendum was held.All sourcescase.czechoslovakia.dissolution_law.passed

Result: Both nations are now EU members. Relations between Czechs and Slovaks are better than they ever were inside Czechoslovakia.

Norway (1905) SUCCESS

91 years in union with Sweden. Support for independence was minority until conditions made the choice clear.

Result: Referendum passed Receipt100.0%Share voting to dissolve Norway's union with Sweden, August 13, 1905Actual · 1905-08-13How we got itvotes for ÷ (votes for + votes against)Inputscase.norway.1905.yes_votes, case.norway.1905.no_votesSourceStatistics Norway (SSB)Document1905 – året da norske kvinner tok allmenn stemmerett på forskuddWhereArticle text: 368 208 for and 184 against; turnout 85.4%PublishedFebruary 28, 2005CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics Norway (SSB)Document1905 – året da norske kvinner tok allmenn stemmerett på forskuddWhereArticle textPublishedFebruary 28, 2005CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.norway.1905.yes_share YES. Today: one of the world's richest countries per personReceipt94,468.2GDP per person, Norway, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Norway, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.norway.2025, with the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, now worth about US$2.3 trillionReceipt2.3Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, June 30, 2026, in trillions of US dollarsActual · 2026-06-30How we got itfund value in kroner ÷ kroner per US dollar ÷ 1,000,000,000,000Inputscase.nbim.gpfg.value.2026-06-30, case.norges_bank.nok_per_usd.2026-06-30SourceNorges Bank Investment ManagementDocumentGovernment Pension Fund Global: Half-year report, first half 2026WhereCover and key figures: 22,683 billion kronerPublishedAugust 12, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceNorges BankDocumentExchange rates (EXR): USD/NOK, business-day spotWhereSeries B.USD.NOK.SP, 2026-06-30: 9.9267PublishedJune 30, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUS dollars (trillions), stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit.All sourcescase.nbim.gpfg.value_usd_trillions.2026-06-30 (June 2026).

Late Movers: Catastrophe

Yugoslavia (1991-2001) CATASTROPHE

Slovenia left early (10-day war, minimal casualties). Serbia stayed and fought for a decade.

  • Dead

    140,000+Receipt140,000People killed in the wars in the former Yugoslavia (1990s)Estimate · 1991-2001SourceInternational Center for Transitional JusticeDocumentThe former YugoslaviaWherePage text: more than 140,000 people killedCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNGO summary; label as analysis.All sourcescase.yugoslavia.killed

  • Displaced

    Nearly 4 millionReceipt4People displaced by the wars in the former Yugoslavia, in millionsEstimate · 1991-2001How we got itpeople displaced ÷ 1,000,000Inputscase.yugoslavia.displacedSourceInternational Center for Transitional JusticeDocumentThe former YugoslaviaWherePage text: almost four million displacedCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.yugoslavia.displaced_millions.1991-2001

Today: Slovenia GDP per person: US$37,357Receipt37,357.4GDP per person, Slovenia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Slovenia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.slovenia.2025 (EU member, euro). Serbia: US$15,284Receipt15,283.9GDP per person, Serbia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Serbia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.serbia.2025 (still not in the EU).

Russia (1991-1998) CATASTROPHE

The Baltics left early and are now EU/NATO members. Russia stayed and collapsed.

  • GDP, 1989 to 1998

    Receipt-44.3%Change in Russia real GDP, 1989 to 1998Actual · 1989 to 1998How we got itreal GDP 1998 ÷ real GDP 1989 − 1 (constant 2015 US dollars)Inputscase.world_bank.russia.gdp_real.1998, case.world_bank.russia.gdp_real.1989SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, Russian Federation, 1998PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, Russian Federation, 1989PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.world_bank.russia.gdp_change.1989-1998

  • Inflation, 1992 (GDP deflator)

    Receipt1,490.4%Russia inflation, GDP deflator, 1992 (1,490%)Actual · 1992SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG, Russian Federation, 1992PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFallback for the page's '2,500%' (a December-to-December consumer price figure with no primary citation yet). World Bank CPI inflation for Russia starts in 1993.All sourcescase.world_bank.russia.inflation_deflator.1992

Life expectancy fell Receipt4.7Fall in Russia life expectancy at birth, 1989 to 1994Actual · 1989 to 1994How we got itlife expectancy at birth 1989 − life expectancy at birth 1994Inputscase.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy.1989, case.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy.1994SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator SP.DYN.LE00.IN, Russian Federation, 1989PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator SP.DYN.LE00.IN, Russian Federation, 1994PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy_drop.1989-1994 years from 1989 to 1994. Oligarchs seized public assets. Middle class wiped out.

The numbers in this section · 20

  • Singapore's land area at independence, square kilometres

    Receipt581.5Singapore's land area at independence, square kilometresActual · 1965SourceSeasia.coDocumentSingapore Is 28% Bigger Than It Was at Independence. Is It the Only One?WhereArticle text, citing Singapore Land Authority data published by the Department of Statistics SingaporePublishedJune 19, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUnit: square kilometres. Reporting of official data; swap in the SingStat table when located.All sourcescase.singapore.land_area.1965

  • Singapore's average annual real GDP growth, 1965-1973

    Receipt12.7%Singapore's average annual real GDP growth, 1965-1973Actual · 1965-1973SourceLibrary of Congress, Federal Research DivisionDocumentSingapore: A Country StudyWhereThe Economy: 'Patterns of Development'CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCountry Studies series; mirror of the Library of Congress text.All sourcescase.singapore.gdp_growth.1965-1973

  • GDP per person, Singapore, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)

    US$99,365Receipt99,365.3GDP per person, Singapore, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Singapore, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.singapore.2025

  • Share voting to dissolve Norway's union with Sweden, August 13, 1905

    Receipt100.0%Share voting to dissolve Norway's union with Sweden, August 13, 1905Actual · 1905-08-13How we got itvotes for ÷ (votes for + votes against)Inputscase.norway.1905.yes_votes, case.norway.1905.no_votesSourceStatistics Norway (SSB)Document1905 – året da norske kvinner tok allmenn stemmerett på forskuddWhereArticle text: 368 208 for and 184 against; turnout 85.4%PublishedFebruary 28, 2005CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics Norway (SSB)Document1905 – året da norske kvinner tok allmenn stemmerett på forskuddWhereArticle textPublishedFebruary 28, 2005CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.norway.1905.yes_share

  • Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, June 30, 2026, in trillions of US dollars

    US$2.3TReceipt2.3Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, June 30, 2026, in trillions of US dollarsActual · 2026-06-30How we got itfund value in kroner ÷ kroner per US dollar ÷ 1,000,000,000,000Inputscase.nbim.gpfg.value.2026-06-30, case.norges_bank.nok_per_usd.2026-06-30SourceNorges Bank Investment ManagementDocumentGovernment Pension Fund Global: Half-year report, first half 2026WhereCover and key figures: 22,683 billion kronerPublishedAugust 12, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceNorges BankDocumentExchange rates (EXR): USD/NOK, business-day spotWhereSeries B.USD.NOK.SP, 2026-06-30: 9.9267PublishedJune 30, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceUS dollars (trillions), stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit.All sourcescase.nbim.gpfg.value_usd_trillions.2026-06-30

  • People killed in the wars in the former Yugoslavia (1990s)

    140,000+Receipt140,000People killed in the wars in the former Yugoslavia (1990s)Estimate · 1991-2001SourceInternational Center for Transitional JusticeDocumentThe former YugoslaviaWherePage text: more than 140,000 people killedCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNGO summary; label as analysis.All sourcescase.yugoslavia.killed

  • People displaced by the wars in the former Yugoslavia, in millions

    4MReceipt4People displaced by the wars in the former Yugoslavia, in millionsEstimate · 1991-2001How we got itpeople displaced ÷ 1,000,000Inputscase.yugoslavia.displacedSourceInternational Center for Transitional JusticeDocumentThe former YugoslaviaWherePage text: almost four million displacedCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.yugoslavia.displaced_millions.1991-2001

  • GDP per person, Slovenia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)

    US$37,357Receipt37,357.4GDP per person, Slovenia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Slovenia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.slovenia.2025

  • GDP per person, Serbia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)

    US$15,284Receipt15,283.9GDP per person, Serbia, 2025 (IMF estimate, current US dollars)Estimate · 2025SourceInternational Monetary FundDocumentWorld Economic Outlook, DataMapper: GDP per capita, current prices (NGDPDPC)WhereIndicator NGDPDPC, Serbia, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceLatest WEO vintage served by DataMapper on 2026-09-28 (April 2026). US dollars. Stored under unit "index" because the registry has no US-dollar unit; shown with a "US$" prefix.All sourcescase.imf.gdp_per_capita.serbia.2025

  • Change in Russia real GDP, 1989 to 1998

    Receipt-44.3%Change in Russia real GDP, 1989 to 1998Actual · 1989 to 1998How we got itreal GDP 1998 ÷ real GDP 1989 − 1 (constant 2015 US dollars)Inputscase.world_bank.russia.gdp_real.1998, case.world_bank.russia.gdp_real.1989SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, Russian Federation, 1998PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, Russian Federation, 1989PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.world_bank.russia.gdp_change.1989-1998

  • Russia inflation, GDP deflator, 1992 (1,490%)

    Receipt1,490.4%Russia inflation, GDP deflator, 1992 (1,490%)Actual · 1992SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG, Russian Federation, 1992PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFallback for the page's '2,500%' (a December-to-December consumer price figure with no primary citation yet). World Bank CPI inflation for Russia starts in 1993.All sourcescase.world_bank.russia.inflation_deflator.1992

  • Fall in Russia life expectancy at birth, 1989 to 1994

    Receipt4.7Fall in Russia life expectancy at birth, 1989 to 1994Actual · 1989 to 1994How we got itlife expectancy at birth 1989 − life expectancy at birth 1994Inputscase.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy.1989, case.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy.1994SourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator SP.DYN.LE00.IN, Russian Federation, 1989PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceWorld BankDocumentWorld Development IndicatorsWhereIndicator SP.DYN.LE00.IN, Russian Federation, 1994PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.world_bank.russia.life_expectancy_drop.1989-1994

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Next · 09 of 11Your Leverage

Section 9 of 11

Their Fear Is Your Leverage

The intensity of opposition reveals the value of what they are afraid to lose.

2 min read · 22 receipts in this section

What They Say vs. What It Means

Where support stands, by poll and by question
  • All Albertans: would choose Option 2, start the separation process (CBC News/Janet Brown, September 2026)Receipt23.0%Albertans who would choose Option 2 on Question 10 (Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News)Estimate · 2026-09-08/2026-09-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentWith time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slippingWhereArticle text (random survey of 1,200 Albertans using the ballot's exact wording)PublishedSeptember 25, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting of a poll done for CBC News. 72% remain, 4% unsure; margin of error ±2.8 points.All sourcescase.poll.janet_brown.2026-09.option2
  • UCP voters only, the same poll and questionReceipt53.0%UCP voters who would choose the separation option on Question 10Estimate · 2026-09-08/2026-09-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentWith time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slippingWhereArticle text (partisan breakdown)PublishedSeptember 25, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source40% of UCP voters would vote to stay.All sourcescase.poll.janet_brown.2026-09.ucp_option2
  • Likely voters: would choose to start the legal process toward a binding referendum (Research Co., August 2026)Receipt22.0%Likely voters choosing to start the legal process toward a binding separation referendum (Research Co.)Estimate · 2026-08-24/2026-08-26SourceResearch Co.DocumentFewer Than 1/4 of Voters in Alberta Side with SeparationWhereRelease textPublishedAugust 31, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source750 likely voters; 74% remain; 18% among ages 18-34; margin of error ±3.6 points.All sourcescase.poll.researchco.2026-08.option2
  • A different question: would vote for separation itself (Research Co., January 2026)Receipt31.0%Albertans who would vote for separation, Research Co., January 2026Estimate · 2026-01-04/2026-01-06SourceResearch Co.DocumentAlberta separation poll, January 2026WhereRelease textPublishedJanuary 8, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceHistorical data point; superseded by case.poll.researchco.2026-08.option2.All sourcescase.poll.researchco.2026-01.support

Source: CBC News · Research Co.Receipt23.0%Albertans who would choose Option 2 on Question 10 (Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News)Estimate · 2026-09-08/2026-09-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentWith time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slippingWhereArticle text (random survey of 1,200 Albertans using the ballot's exact wording)PublishedSeptember 25, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting of a poll done for CBC News. 72% remain, 4% unsure; margin of error ±2.8 points.All sourcescase.poll.janet_brown.2026-09.option2

About the Critics

Notice who opposes Alberta independence most loudly: people in Ontario and Quebec who will not get to vote. Their arguments never address the substance. They use character attacks, gaslighting, and shame by association. These are weak positions that reveal they cannot engage with the facts.

We believe more Alberta business leaders sympathize than will say so publicly. Few will speak about separation at all. We think they fear federal backlash, regulatory retaliation and lost government contracts. Their silence tells you how Ottawa maintains control.

Alberta's Leverage

  • Oil reserves (4th largest globally)

    167B barrelsReceipt167Alberta's proven oil reserves, billions of barrelsActual · 2025How we got itproven oil reserves in barrels ÷ 1,000,000,000Inputscase.oil_reserves.albertaSourceGovernment of AlbertaDocumentOil sands facts and statisticsWhereReserves sectionCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.oil_reserves.alberta.billion_barrels

  • Natural gas (5.4xReceipt541.7%Alberta's proven natural gas reserves as a multiple of the previous estimate (times)Actual · 2025How we got itproven natural gas reserves (2025) ÷ the previous estimateInputscase.gas_reserves.alberta.proven, case.gas_reserves.alberta.previousSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text: proven reserves of 130 trillion cubic feet, against a previous provincial estimate of 24PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text (previous provincial estimate)PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.gas_reserves.alberta.multiple_of_previous the previous estimate)

    130 TCFReceipt130Alberta's proven natural gas reserves, trillions of cubic feetActual · 2025How we got itproven natural gas reserves in cubic feet ÷ 1,000,000,000,000Inputscase.gas_reserves.alberta.provenSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text: proven reserves of 130 trillion cubic feet, against a previous provincial estimate of 24PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.gas_reserves.alberta.proven_tcf

  • Net to Ottawa, 2024

    Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

  • Educated, productive population

    Receipt5,101,050Population of Alberta, July 1, 2026Preliminary · 2026-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePreliminary postcensal estimate. Statistics Canada revised its population estimates back to July 2021 on September 23, 2026 (new method for non-permanent residents).All sourcespopulation.alberta.2026-07-01

Albertans did not wait for Ottawa to build the oil sands. They did not wait for permission to become Canada's economic engine. That same spirit of self-reliance is what independence is built on.

The numbers in this section · 22

  • Alberta's proven oil reserves, billions of barrels

    167B barrelsReceipt167Alberta's proven oil reserves, billions of barrelsActual · 2025How we got itproven oil reserves in barrels ÷ 1,000,000,000Inputscase.oil_reserves.albertaSourceGovernment of AlbertaDocumentOil sands facts and statisticsWhereReserves sectionCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.oil_reserves.alberta.billion_barrels

  • Alberta's proven natural gas reserves, trillions of cubic feet

    130 TCFReceipt130Alberta's proven natural gas reserves, trillions of cubic feetActual · 2025How we got itproven natural gas reserves in cubic feet ÷ 1,000,000,000,000Inputscase.gas_reserves.alberta.provenSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text: proven reserves of 130 trillion cubic feet, against a previous provincial estimate of 24PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.gas_reserves.alberta.proven_tcf

  • Alberta's proven natural gas reserves as a multiple of the previous estimate (times)

    Receipt541.7%Alberta's proven natural gas reserves as a multiple of the previous estimate (times)Actual · 2025How we got itproven natural gas reserves (2025) ÷ the previous estimateInputscase.gas_reserves.alberta.proven, case.gas_reserves.alberta.previousSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text: proven reserves of 130 trillion cubic feet, against a previous provincial estimate of 24PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceThe Canadian Press (via Yahoo Finance)DocumentAlberta has nearly six times the natural gas it thought, putting Canada among world's top 10WhereArticle text (previous provincial estimate)PublishedMarch 13, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.gas_reserves.alberta.multiple_of_previous

  • Canadian oil as a share of US Midwest refinery crude inputs

    Receipt73.0%Canadian oil as a share of US Midwest refinery crude inputsActual · 2025SourceFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas CityDocumentCanadian Oil Important for Midwest Gasoline Prices (Economic Bulletin; Jason P. Brown and Bobby Beckemeyer)WhereText: Midwest refineries process 2.8 million b/d of Canadian oil, 73 percent of crude inputsPublishedMay 9, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe bulletin adds that a refinery equipped for heavy sour crude cannot easily switch to another type.All sourcescase.kcfed.midwest_refinery_canadian_share

  • Albertans who would choose Option 2 on Question 10 (Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News)

    Receipt23.0%Albertans who would choose Option 2 on Question 10 (Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News)Estimate · 2026-09-08/2026-09-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentWith time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slippingWhereArticle text (random survey of 1,200 Albertans using the ballot's exact wording)PublishedSeptember 25, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting of a poll done for CBC News. 72% remain, 4% unsure; margin of error ±2.8 points.All sourcescase.poll.janet_brown.2026-09.option2

  • Likely voters choosing to start the legal process toward a binding separation referendum (Research Co.)

    Receipt22.0%Likely voters choosing to start the legal process toward a binding separation referendum (Research Co.)Estimate · 2026-08-24/2026-08-26SourceResearch Co.DocumentFewer Than 1/4 of Voters in Alberta Side with SeparationWhereRelease textPublishedAugust 31, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source750 likely voters; 74% remain; 18% among ages 18-34; margin of error ±3.6 points.All sourcescase.poll.researchco.2026-08.option2

  • UCP voters who would choose the separation option on Question 10

    Receipt53.0%UCP voters who would choose the separation option on Question 10Estimate · 2026-09-08/2026-09-21SourceCBC NewsDocumentWith time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slippingWhereArticle text (partisan breakdown)PublishedSeptember 25, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the source40% of UCP voters would vote to stay.All sourcescase.poll.janet_brown.2026-09.ucp_option2

  • Albertans who would vote for separation, Research Co., January 2026

    Receipt31.0%Albertans who would vote for separation, Research Co., January 2026Estimate · 2026-01-04/2026-01-06SourceResearch Co.DocumentAlberta separation poll, January 2026WhereRelease textPublishedJanuary 8, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceHistorical data point; superseded by case.poll.researchco.2026-08.option2.All sourcescase.poll.researchco.2026-01.support

  • Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar year

    Receipt$19,000,000,000Net federal balance in Alberta (federal revenue collected in Alberta minus federal spending in Alberta), by calendar yearActual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceFederal general government on the national-accounts basis. Excludes the Canada Pension Plan, which the table treats as a separate level of government; includes Employment Insurance. Revenue is where federal taxes are collected (corporate income tax by place of business) and spending is where federal money is spent, so federal services delivered from outside Alberta count elsewhere. This is not Equalization, which is paid from federal general revenue. Negative in 2020, when Alberta was a net recipient.All sourcestransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance_history@2024

  • Population of Alberta, July 1, 2026

    Receipt5,101,050Population of Alberta, July 1, 2026Preliminary · 2026-07-01SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePreliminary postcensal estimate. Statistics Canada revised its population estimates back to July 2021 on September 23, 2026 (new method for non-permanent residents).All sourcespopulation.alberta.2026-07-01

All sections
Next · 10 of 11The Untapped Opportunity

Section 10 of 11

The Untapped Opportunity: Energy Is Prosperity

GDP and energy consumption are directly correlated. Wealthy nations use more energy, not less.Receipt89.2%Correlation between energy use per person and GDP per person (natural logs), 142 countries, 2015Estimate · 2015SourceWorld Bank (World Development Indicators); calculation by drained.caDocumentEnergy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE) and GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)Where2015 values for 142 economies (regional and income aggregates excluded); Pearson r of natural logs = 0.892; linear r = 0.703PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca's own calculation, not a published statistic. Display as 0.89. Method on /methodology.All sourcescase.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.2015

2 min read · 14 receipts in this section

The global warming narrative tells Canadians to use less energy to save the planet. The rest of the world understands the truth: nations that consume more energy are more prosperous. This is not ideology. It is physics and economics.

  • Correlation (log scale) between energy use and GDP per person, Receipt142Countries in drained.ca's energy-use and GDP correlation (2015)Estimate · 2015SourceWorld Bank (World Development Indicators); calculation by drained.caDocumentEnergy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE) and GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)WhereEconomies with both 2015 values, regional and income aggregates excludedPublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCompanion count for case.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.2015.All sourcescase.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.countries countries (World Bank data, 2015; drained.ca calculation)

    Receipt89.2%Correlation between energy use per person and GDP per person (natural logs), 142 countries, 2015Estimate · 2015SourceWorld Bank (World Development Indicators); calculation by drained.caDocumentEnergy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE) and GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)Where2015 values for 142 economies (regional and income aggregates excluded); Pearson r of natural logs = 0.892; linear r = 0.703PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca's own calculation, not a published statistic. Display as 0.89. Method on /methodology.All sourcescase.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.2015

  • China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023 (Global Energy Monitor)

    Receipt95.0%China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023Actual · 2023SourceGlobal Energy MonitorDocumentBoom and Bust Coal 2024WhereKey findings: 2023 construction starts, China 70.2 GW against 3.7 GW in the rest of the worldCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSame report: China commissioned 47.4 GW in 2023 while 17.4 GW was retired outside China. Published 2024-04.All sourcescase.gem.china_share_coal_construction_starts.2023

Energy is global competition, not cooperation. China does not care about carbon neutrality. They are building capacity while Ottawa destroys ours. Every barrel Alberta does not produce gets produced somewhere else, usually with dirtier methods and weaker environmental standards. Federal policy does not reduce global emissions. It exports jobs.

New coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023 (Global Energy Monitor)
  • China's shareReceipt95.0%China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023Actual · 2023SourceGlobal Energy MonitorDocumentBoom and Bust Coal 2024WhereKey findings: 2023 construction starts, China 70.2 GW against 3.7 GW in the rest of the worldCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSame report: China commissioned 47.4 GW in 2023 while 17.4 GW was retired outside China. Published 2024-04.All sourcescase.gem.china_share_coal_construction_starts.2023

Source: Global Energy MonitorReceipt95.0%China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023Actual · 2023SourceGlobal Energy MonitorDocumentBoom and Bust Coal 2024WhereKey findings: 2023 construction starts, China 70.2 GW against 3.7 GW in the rest of the worldCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSame report: China commissioned 47.4 GW in 2023 while 17.4 GW was retired outside China. Published 2024-04.All sourcescase.gem.china_share_coal_construction_starts.2023

The AI Opportunity Ottawa Blocked

Data centre demand is exploding. AI requires massive compute capacity. That compute requires massive energy. The US will not build critical AI infrastructure in hostile geographies. They consider Alberta an ally.

Alberta could feed all its natural gas directly to data centres. No export pipelines needed. No LNG terminals. Domestic consumption at premium rates. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are all racing to secure energy for AI infrastructure.

This is happening. The only question is where.

What Independence Could Unlock

  • AI Data Centres: Abundant natural gas, cold climate (reduced cooling costs), US ally status, stable rule of law
  • Petrochemical Manufacturing: Feedstock advantage currently shipped elsewhere for processing
  • Hydrogen Production: Blue hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture, without federal regulatory paralysis
  • Small Modular Reactors: Nuclear baseload without a federal licensing saga like Darlington's (applied 2006Receipt2006Ontario Power Generation applies for a site preparation licence for new nuclear at DarlingtonActual · 2006SourceCanadian Nuclear Safety CommissionDocumentDarlington New Nuclear ProjectWhereProject historyCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceR-1 dates the application to September 2006.All sourcescase.cnsc.darlington.site_licence_application, construction licence 2025ReceiptApril 4, 2025CNSC authorizes construction of the first BWRX-300 small modular reactor at DarlingtonActual · 2025-04-04SourceCanadian Nuclear Safety CommissionDocumentDecision by the Commission to authorize Ontario Power Generation Inc. to construct 1 BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project siteWhereNews release textPublishedApril 4, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSite preparation licence issued Aug 17, 2012; licence to construct applied for Oct 2022.All sourcescase.cnsc.darlington.construction_licence)
The numbers in this section · 14

  • Correlation between energy use per person and GDP per person (natural logs), 142 countries, 2015

    Receipt89.2%Correlation between energy use per person and GDP per person (natural logs), 142 countries, 2015Estimate · 2015SourceWorld Bank (World Development Indicators); calculation by drained.caDocumentEnergy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE) and GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)Where2015 values for 142 economies (regional and income aggregates excluded); Pearson r of natural logs = 0.892; linear r = 0.703PublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca's own calculation, not a published statistic. Display as 0.89. Method on /methodology.All sourcescase.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.2015

  • Countries in drained.ca's energy-use and GDP correlation (2015)

    Receipt142Countries in drained.ca's energy-use and GDP correlation (2015)Estimate · 2015SourceWorld Bank (World Development Indicators); calculation by drained.caDocumentEnergy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE) and GDP per capita, PPP (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)WhereEconomies with both 2015 values, regional and income aggregates excludedPublishedJuly 13, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceCompanion count for case.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.2015.All sourcescase.world_bank.energy_gdp_correlation.countries

  • China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023

    Receipt95.0%China's share of new coal-plant construction starts worldwide, 2023Actual · 2023SourceGlobal Energy MonitorDocumentBoom and Bust Coal 2024WhereKey findings: 2023 construction starts, China 70.2 GW against 3.7 GW in the rest of the worldCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSame report: China commissioned 47.4 GW in 2023 while 17.4 GW was retired outside China. Published 2024-04.All sourcescase.gem.china_share_coal_construction_starts.2023

All sections
Next · 11 of 11The Choice

Section 11 of 11

The Choice

In declining empires, the only thing worse than acting too early is acting too late.

2 min read · 17 receipts in this section

Path A drained.ca's judgment

Stay

Stage 6 is coming, in our judgment.

  • Our stress scenario: total government debt at drained.ca scenarioReceipt150.0%drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDPdrained.ca scenario · 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOur own stress projection, not an official forecast. It starts from the IMF's 2025 estimate and assumes government deficits grow 15% to 20% a year while nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3% a year, a recession or trade-war case. The IMF projects a decline over the same years.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.drained_scenario@2035 of GDP by 2035
  • A shelved emissions cap any future Ottawa can revive (up to Receipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high jobs)
  • US tariffs crater the economy
  • Children inherit $35,308+Receipt$35,308Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026Estimate · 2026-03-31How we got itnet debt at March 31, 2026 ÷ population of Canada on April 1, 2026Inputsdebt.federal.net_debt.2026-03-31, population.canada.2026-04-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.7 Summary Statement of Transactions, Financial Position, "Net debt" row, 2025-2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), April 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.per_person.2026-03-31 each in federal net debt
  • A society of inherited privilege by 2040 (Ottawa's own scenario)

Historical precedent: Serbia, Russia, Argentina. Everyone thought it could not happen there.

Path B drained.ca's judgment

Leave

Exit in Stage 5. While leverage exists.

  • Keep what Ottawa nets from each household: Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024 in 2024
  • Never face another cap that could cost up to Receipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high jobs
  • Direct US trade relationship
  • Texas/Singapore model
  • A CPP surplus to build on: Receipt$7,161,000,000Canada Pension Plan surplus from Alberta (contributions and income minus benefits paid), 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Canada Pension Plan; General governments surplus or deficit; 2024 (vector v107650405, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceShown separately: CPP contributions fund the contributors' own future pensions and sit outside the federal budget.All sourcestransfers.alberta.cpp_balance.2024 more collected here than paid out in 2024

Historical precedent: Singapore, Norway, Czech Republic, Slovenia. They all prospered.

This is not advocating for chaos. The case is for a peaceful, negotiated process like Norway 1905 (by referendumReceipt368,208Votes for dissolving the union with Sweden, Aug 13, 1905Actual · 1905-08-13SourceStatistics Norway (SSB)Document1905 – året da norske kvinner tok allmenn stemmerett på forskuddWhereArticle text: 368 208 for and 184 against; turnout 85.4%PublishedFebruary 28, 2005CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOnly men could vote in 1905.All sourcescase.norway.1905.yes_votes) or the Czech-Slovak split of 1993 (by vote of the elected federal parliamentReceiptNovember 25, 1992Czechoslovakia's elected Federal Assembly votes to dissolve the federation (effective Jan 1, 1993)Actual · 1992-11-25SourceUPIDocumentFederal Parliament votes to dissolve CzechoslovakiaWhereArticle text: amendment adopted 183-30 with 55 abstentionsPublishedNovember 25, 1992CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceNo referendum was held.All sourcescase.czechoslovakia.dissolution_law.passed). Singapore 1965 shows a small state can thrive on its own. The Supreme Court's 1998 Secession Reference established the framework.ReceiptAugust 20, 1998Supreme Court of Canada opinion in Reference re Secession of QuebecActual · 1998-08-20SourceSupreme Court of CanadaDocumentReference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217WhereParas. 84 (secession requires a constitutional amendment, which requires negotiation), 87-88 (clear majority on a clear question; reciprocal duty to negotiate)PublishedAugust 20, 1998CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe SCC and CanLII sites refused automated access on 2026-09-28; paragraph numbers were confirmed from secondary quotations. Re-check before ship.All sourcescase.law.secession_reference.decided Alberta's Bill 54 (2025) enables citizen-initiated referendums, and Question 10 on ReceiptOctober 19, 2026Alberta referendum voting dayActual · 2026SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWherePage heading "A referendum has been set for October 19, 2026."PublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceElections Alberta lists three Orders in Council for the referendum: O.C. 109/2026 and O.C. 110/2026 (approved March 31, 2026) and O.C. 160/2026 (approved May 28, 2026). The published date is the page's last modification.All sourcesreferendum.date.2026 is the first step.

The question is not whether you love Canada. The question is whether Canada, as currently constituted, can survive its trajectory. If it cannot, early movers prosper while late movers suffer. Both paths staying lead to suffering. Only one path leads to prosperity.

The numbers in this section · 17

  • drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDP

    drained.ca scenarioReceipt150.0%drained.ca stress scenario: total government gross debt as a share of GDPdrained.ca scenario · 2035Sourcedrained.caDocumentMethodologyWhereSection "How Future Debt-to-GDP Is Projected": the stress scenario and its assumptionsCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceOur own stress projection, not an official forecast. It starts from the IMF's 2025 estimate and assumes government deficits grow 15% to 20% a year while nominal GDP grows only 2% to 3% a year, a recession or trade-war case. The IMF projects a decline over the same years.All sourcesseries.debt_to_gdp.drained_scenario@2035

  • Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenarios

    Receipt151,000Canadian jobs lost in 2030 under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, highest of three scenariosEstimate · 2030SourceThe Conference Board of Canada (presented to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance)DocumentEconomic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas SectorWhereResults > National Results, p. 10: employment declines by between 82,000 and 151,000 in 2030PublishedJanuary 31, 2024CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceScenario 3 (45% methane reduction), which the report rates least likely. Alberta’s technical submission (Feb 2024, p. 12) rounds the same range to 82,000-151,300. The cap was never implemented: see case.mou.cap_not_implemented.All sourcescase.cboc.cap.jobs_lost.2030.high

  • Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026

    Receipt$35,308Federal net debt per Canadian, March 31, 2026Estimate · 2026-03-31How we got itnet debt at March 31, 2026 ÷ population of Canada on April 1, 2026Inputsdebt.federal.net_debt.2026-03-31, population.canada.2026-04-01SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentSpring Economic Update 2026, Annex 1: Details of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsWhereTable A1.7 Summary Statement of Transactions, Financial Position, "Net debt" row, 2025-2026 columnPublishedApril 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereCanada (vector v1), April 1, 2026PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesdebt.federal.net_debt.per_person.2026-03-31

  • Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024

    Receipt$10,117Net federal take per Alberta household, 2024Estimate · 2024How we got itnet federal balance per Albertan (2024) × people per household (Census 2021)Inputstransfers.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_person.2024, case.census2021.alberta.people_per_householdSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments surplus or deficit; 2007 to 2024 (vector v107650174, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterlyWhereAlberta (vector v15), July 1, 2024PublishedSeptember 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Population, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 98-10-0001-01 Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territoriesWhereAlberta, Private dwellings occupied by usual residents, 2021PublishedFebruary 9, 2022CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAn average. It counts every federal tax collected in Alberta, including corporate income tax, against every federal dollar spent here. It is not Equalization.All sourcescase.alberta.net_federal_balance.per_household.2024

  • Canada Pension Plan surplus from Alberta (contributions and income minus benefits paid), 2024

    Receipt$7,161,000,000Canada Pension Plan surplus from Alberta (contributions and income minus benefits paid), 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Canada Pension Plan; General governments surplus or deficit; 2024 (vector v107650405, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceShown separately: CPP contributions fund the contributors' own future pensions and sit outside the federal budget.All sourcestransfers.alberta.cpp_balance.2024

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Every Albertan deserves to see these facts. Every Albertan deserves to know what the federal government's own foresight unit calls a plausible future. Share this page. Start conversations. Vote on Question 10 on ReceiptOctober 19, 2026Alberta referendum voting dayActual · 2026SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWherePage heading "A referendum has been set for October 19, 2026."PublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceElections Alberta lists three Orders in Council for the referendum: O.C. 109/2026 and O.C. 110/2026 (approved March 31, 2026) and O.C. 160/2026 (approved May 28, 2026). The published date is the page's last modification.All sourcesreferendum.date.2026. The window for peaceful exit is closing.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does Question 10 on Alberta's October 19 referendum ask?

It asks: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”ReceiptShould Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?Question 10 (separation), ballot questionActual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, the questionPublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceClause 4 of the order: the result of the referendum is not to be binding. Question 10 is a choice question: electors select one of two options. Elections Alberta publishes the same wording and states that it may not interpret the questions.All sourcesreferendum.q10.question.2026 You choose one option. Option 1: “Alberta should remain a province of Canada.”ReceiptAlberta should remain a province of Canada.Question 10 (separation), Option 1Actual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, 'Option 1'PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesreferendum.q10.option_1.2026 Option 2: “The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”ReceiptThe Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.Question 10 (separation), Option 2Actual · 2026SourceAlberta King's PrinterDocumentOrder in Council O.C. 160/2026 (Referendum Act), May 28, 2026WhereClause 1, 'Option 2'PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcesreferendum.q10.option_2.2026 The vote is on ReceiptOctober 19, 2026Alberta referendum voting dayActual · 2026SourceElections AlbertaDocumentReferendumWherePage heading "A referendum has been set for October 19, 2026."PublishedSeptember 6, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceElections Alberta lists three Orders in Council for the referendum: O.C. 109/2026 and O.C. 110/2026 (approved March 31, 2026) and O.C. 160/2026 (approved May 28, 2026). The published date is the page's last modification.All sourcesreferendum.date.2026, and the Order in Council that set the question says “the result of the referendum is not to be binding.”Receiptthe result of the referendum is not to be bindingOrder in Council 160/2026 on the effect of the Question 10 resultActual · 2026-05-28SourceGovernment of Alberta (Lieutenant Governor in Council)DocumentOrder in Council 160/2026WhereSection 4PublishedMay 28, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.quote.oc160.not_binding

Does a vote for Option 2 mean Alberta leaves Canada?

No. Option 2 asks the Government of Alberta to begin the legal process toward a later, binding referendum on separation, and the Question 10 result is not binding. Under the Supreme Court's 1998 Secession ReferenceReceiptAugust 20, 1998Supreme Court of Canada opinion in Reference re Secession of QuebecActual · 1998-08-20SourceSupreme Court of CanadaDocumentReference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217WhereParas. 84 (secession requires a constitutional amendment, which requires negotiation), 87-88 (clear majority on a clear question; reciprocal duty to negotiate)PublishedAugust 20, 1998CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe SCC and CanLII sites refused automated access on 2026-09-28; paragraph numbers were confirmed from secondary quotations. Re-check before ship.All sourcescase.law.secession_reference.decided, a clear majority on a clear question in that later referendum would oblige Ottawa and the provinces to negotiate, and separation itself would need a constitutional amendment. The federal Clarity Act sets how the House of Commons judges the question and the result.Receipt30Days the House of Commons has to decide whether a provincial secession question is clear (Clarity Act s. 1(1))Actual · 2000SourceGovernment of Canada (Justice Laws Website)DocumentClarity Act, S.C. 2000, c. 26 (consolidated text)WhereSection 1(1); see also s. 1(3)-(4), s. 2(1)-(2) and s. 3(1)PublishedSeptember 21, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe count is 30 days (extended by 40 days if a federal election intervenes, s. 1(2)).All sourcescase.law.clarity_act.commons_review_days

What about my pension?

Albertans overpay into CPP because Alberta's population is younger and earns more. That overpayment subsidizes pensions in older, lower-income provinces. Under independence, Alberta keeps its overpayments. Canada keeps its unfunded liabilities for other provinces. The CPP already takes in between Receipt$6,350,000,000Canada Pension Plan revenue minus spending in Alberta, 2023Actual · 2023SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta, Canada Pension Plan, surplus or deficit, 2023 (v107650405)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIncludes CPP investment income attributed to Alberta. The 2024 value is transfers.alberta.cpp_balance.2024.All sourcescase.statcan.alberta.cpp_balance.2023 and Receipt$7,161,000,000Canada Pension Plan surplus from Alberta (contributions and income minus benefits paid), 2024Actual · 2024SourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Canada Pension Plan; General governments surplus or deficit; 2024 (vector v107650405, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceShown separately: CPP contributions fund the contributors' own future pensions and sit outside the federal budget.All sourcestransfers.alberta.cpp_balance.2024 a year more in Alberta than it pays out here (Statistics Canada, 2023-2024). Alberta's actuarial study put an Alberta plan's rate at Receipt5.9%Base Alberta Pension Plan contribution rate (LifeWorks)Estimate · 2027SourceLifeWorks (TELUS Health), for Alberta Treasury Board and FinanceDocumentAlberta Pension Plan – Analysis of Costs, Benefits, Risks and ConsiderationsWherep. 4, table of contribution ratesPublishedSeptember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.lifeworks.app.base_rate, a saving of up to Receipt$1,425Contribution saving per Alberta employee (and per employer) under an Alberta Pension Plan, 2027Estimate · 2027SourceLifeWorks (TELUS Health), for Alberta Treasury Board and FinanceDocumentAlberta Pension Plan – Analysis of Costs, Benefits, Risks and ConsiderationsWherep. 5 (summary) and p. 12: savings of up to $1,425 per employee; p. 4: Base APP rate 5.91% vs 9.54% CPP minimum and 9.90% legislatedPublishedSeptember 21, 2023CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAssumes Alberta receives 53% of CPP assets, a basis Canada's Chief Actuary rejected (December 2024).All sourcescase.lifeworks.app.savings_per_employee.2027 per worker a year; a peer-reviewed independent estimate puts the minimum rate at Receipt8.2%Minimum contribution rate for an Alberta Pension Plan (independent estimate)Estimate · 2024SourceCanadian Public Policy (University of Toronto Press)DocumentTrevor Tombe, 'The Alberta Pension Advantage? A Quantitative Analysis of a Separate Provincial Plan', Canadian Public Policy 50(1): 1-19WhereAbstractCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePeer-reviewed. Compares with the CPP's minimum rate of 9.5% (case.tombe.cpp.min_rate). Published 2024-03.All sourcescase.tombe.app.min_rate, against Receipt9.5%CPP minimum contribution rate used for comparison (Tombe)Estimate · 2024SourceCanadian Public Policy (University of Toronto Press)DocumentTrevor Tombe, 'The Alberta Pension Advantage? A Quantitative Analysis of a Separate Provincial Plan', Canadian Public Policy 50(1): 1-19WhereAbstractCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePublished 2024-03.All sourcescase.tombe.cpp.min_rate for the CPP. Today's base CPP rate is Receipt9.9%Base CPP contribution rate, employee plus employer, 2026 (4.95% each)Actual · 2026SourceCanada Revenue AgencyDocumentT4127 Payroll Deductions Formulas, 122nd Edition (January 1, 2026)WhereCPP base contribution rate (0.0495 employee; employer matches)PublishedJanuary 1, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceIf T2's tax-rate data is exposed through figure(), use its base CPP rate x 2 instead.All sourcescase.cpp.base_rate_combined.2026, split between worker and employer. That means lower premiums or higher benefits become possible immediately.

What about healthcare?

Alberta already administers its own healthcare system. Independence would mean full control over healthcare policy and funding. By our estimate, Albertans pay between Receipt$8,653,383,612Albertans' share of the Canada Health Transfer's cost, by share of federal revenue, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itCanada Health Transfer, 2026-27 × Alberta's share of federal revenue (2024)Inputstransfers.cht.total.fy2026-27, transfers.alberta.federal_revenue_share.2024SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate: the CHT is paid from general federal revenue, apportioned here by where that revenue is raised.All sourcescase.cht.alberta_cost.revenue_key.fy2026-27 and Receipt$9,233,730,799Albertans' share of the Canada Health Transfer's cost, by share of federal income taxes, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itCanada Health Transfer, 2026-27 × Alberta's share of federal income taxes (2024)Inputstransfers.cht.total.fy2026-27, case.alberta.share_of_federal_income_taxes.2024SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta, Federal general government, Taxes on incomes, 2024 (v107650070)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada, Federal general government, Taxes on incomes, 2024 (v107646587)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcedrained.ca estimate, apportioned by where federal income taxes are raised.All sourcescase.cht.alberta_cost.income_tax_key.fy2026-27 a year toward the Canada Health Transfer through their federal taxes, but Alberta gets Receipt$7,036,000,000Canada Health Transfer to Alberta, 2026-27Actual · FY2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcestransfers.cht.ab.fy2026-27 back (2026-27). That gap of Receipt$1,617,383,612Canada Health Transfer: what Albertans pay in beyond what Alberta receives, low estimate, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itAlbertans' share of the CHT (revenue key) − Canada Health Transfer to AlbertaInputscase.cht.alberta_cost.revenue_key.fy2026-27, transfers.cht.ab.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107650069, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada; Federal general government; General governments revenue; 2024 (vector v107646586, millions of dollars)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.cht.alberta_gap.low.fy2026-27 to Receipt$2,197,730,799Canada Health Transfer: what Albertans pay in beyond what Alberta receives, high estimate, 2026-27Estimate · FY2026-27How we got itAlbertans' share of the CHT (income-tax key) − Canada Health Transfer to AlbertaInputscase.cht.alberta_cost.income_tax_key.fy2026-27, transfers.cht.ab.fy2026-27SourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Provinces and Territories" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereAlberta, Federal general government, Taxes on incomes, 2024 (v107650070)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceStatistics CanadaDocumentTable 36-10-0450-01 Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, provincial and territorial economic accountsWhereCanada, Federal general government, Taxes on incomes, 2024 (v107646587)PublishedNovember 28, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceSourceDepartment of Finance CanadaDocumentMajor federal transfersWhereTable "Federal Support to Alberta" (millions of dollars), "Canada Health Transfer" row, 2026-27 columnPublishedDecember 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.cht.alberta_gap.high.fy2026-27 a year could build new hospitals, add thousands of beds, slash emergency room wait times, ensure every Albertan has access to a family doctor, and end the crisis of patients waiting hours in understaffed ERs.

Why does leaving feel scary even when the numbers are clear?

Humans naturally fear change more than gradual decline. Between 1949 and 1961, while Berlin's border was still open, most East Germans stayed put even as 2.5 millionReceipt2.5East Germans who fled to the West before the Berlin Wall, in millionsEstimate · 1949-1961How we got itEast Germans who fled to the West, 1949 to 1961 ÷ 1,000,000Inputscase.east_germany.emigrants.1949-1961SourceEncyclopaedia BritannicaDocumentBerlin WallWhereIntroductionCheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.east_germany.emigrants_millions.1949-1961 left. In 1961 the Wall closed the door. The same fear keeps people in bad jobs and bad marriages. The question is not whether change is scary. The question is what happens if we stay. The government's own foresight unit calls a society of inherited privilege by 2040 a plausible future.ReceiptJanuary 10, 2025Policy Horizons Canada publishes 'Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question', a 2040 scenario it calls plausibleActual · 2025-01-10SourcePolicy Horizons CanadaDocumentFuture Lives: Social Mobility in QuestionWhereIntroduction (scenario framing) and DisclaimerPublishedJanuary 10, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourcePolicy Horizons reports through the Deputy Minister of Employment and Social Development Canada (Policy Horizons, 'About us': https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/about-us/index.shtml).All sourcescase.policy_horizons.future_lives.published

Would the federal government let us leave peacefully?

The Supreme Court's 1998 Reference re Secession of Quebec established that if a clear majority votes yes on a clear question, there is a constitutional obligation to negotiate in good faith.ReceiptAugust 20, 1998Supreme Court of Canada opinion in Reference re Secession of QuebecActual · 1998-08-20SourceSupreme Court of CanadaDocumentReference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217WhereParas. 84 (secession requires a constitutional amendment, which requires negotiation), 87-88 (clear majority on a clear question; reciprocal duty to negotiate)PublishedAugust 20, 1998CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe SCC and CanLII sites refused automated access on 2026-09-28; paragraph numbers were confirmed from secondary quotations. Re-check before ship.All sourcescase.law.secession_reference.decided The Clarity Act (2000) sets federal rules for recognizing such a vote. Alberta's Bill 54 (2025) lowered the petition threshold for a citizen-initiated constitutional referendum to Receipt10.0%Signatures needed for a citizen-initiated constitutional referendum petition, as a share of votes cast in the last general electionActual · 2025SourceLegislative Assembly of AlbertaDocumentBill 54, Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025 (S.A. 2025, c. 7)WhereAmendments to the Citizen Initiative Act (constitutional referendum proposals)PublishedApril 29, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceDown from 20% of registered electors. Elections Alberta says the Citizen Initiative Act changes came into force on July 4, 2025.All sourcescase.law.bill54.constitutional_petition_threshold of the votes cast in the last provincial election. The legal framework exists.

What if my family is split between provinces?

The Czech-Slovak Velvet Divorce of 1993 shows how this works. Each citizen became a citizen of one successor state, and others could opt in. A customs union kept trade flowing and the border stayed open. Relations between Czechs and Slovaks are now better than they ever were inside Czechoslovakia. Families remained families.

Would the US really want Alberta as a trading partner?

They already do. US Midwest refineries run on Canadian crude, Receipt73.0%Canadian oil as a share of US Midwest refinery crude inputsActual · 2025SourceFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas CityDocumentCanadian Oil Important for Midwest Gasoline Prices (Economic Bulletin; Jason P. Brown and Bobby Beckemeyer)WhereText: Midwest refineries process 2.8 million b/d of Canadian oil, 73 percent of crude inputsPublishedMay 9, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceThe bulletin adds that a refinery equipped for heavy sour crude cannot easily switch to another type.All sourcescase.kcfed.midwest_refinery_canadian_share of their intake, and plants built for heavy oil cannot easily switch. In 2024 the US imported 4.1 millionReceipt4.1US crude oil imports from Canada, 2024, millions of barrels per dayActual · 2024How we got itUS crude oil imports from Canada, barrels per day ÷ 1,000,000Inputscase.eia.us_crude_imports_from_canada.2024SourceU.S. Energy Information AdministrationDocumentU.S. Imports by Country of Origin (crude oil, thousand barrels per day, annual)WhereCanada row, 2024: 4,062PublishedAugust 31, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.eia.us_crude_imports_from_canada.million_bpd.2024 barrels of Canadian crude a day, and Receipt91.0%Alberta's share of Canada's crude oil exports, 2024Actual · 2024SourceCanada Energy RegulatorDocumentMarket Snapshot: Annual Trade Summary – Crude OilWhereText: Alberta exported 3.81 MMb/d of crude oil in 2024, 91% of total Canadian oil exportsPublishedJune 11, 2025CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceAll sourcescase.cer.alberta_share_crude_exports.2024 of Canada's crude exports came from Alberta. Commerce Secretary Lutnick dismissed Carney's posturing as “political noise.”Receiptpolitical noiseUS Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Carney's Davos speech (Bloomberg interview at Davos)Actual · 2026-01SourceGlobal NewsDocumentCarney's Davos speech 'political noise,' may jeopardize CUSMA, Lutnick saysWhereArticle textPublishedJanuary 22, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceR-1 dated the report Jan 21, 2026; the page read on 2026-09-28 shows Jan 22.All sourcescase.quote.lutnick.political_noise Treasury Secretary Bessent called Alberta “a natural partner.”Receipta natural partnerUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Alberta (Real America's Voice interview recorded at Davos)Actual · 2026-01-23SourceGlobal NewsDocumentBessent says an independent Alberta would be 'natural partner' for U.S.WhereArticle text (Real America's Voice interview at the World Economic Forum, Davos)PublishedJanuary 23, 2026CheckedSeptember 28, 2026Open the sourceReporting.All sourcescase.quote.bessent.natural_partner The US needs Alberta energy. The only question is whether they deal with Ottawa or directly with Alberta.

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Every document behind the figures, quotes and citations on this page (99), grouped by who published it. “Figures” opens the entry on our sources page, with the exact page or table. Open a group to read its list.

Sources: Government, Parliament and courts48
Sources: Statistics agencies and international data11
Sources: Analysis: think tanks, pollsters, academics and consultancies17
Sources: Reporting14
Sources: Books, speeches and company filings9