Ottawa Set the Immigration Levels. Provinces Got the Bill.

• Ottawa let the number of temporary residents more than double^source in just over three years, from 1,326,000^source in July 2021 to 2,984,285^source in October 2024: 7.2%^source of everyone in Canada.
• In November 2025, Ottawa's own report to Parliament said “the pace of arrivals began to exceed Canada’s capacity to absorb and support newcomers in the way we are used to doing”^source and that the surge “put pressure on housing supply, the healthcare system, and schools.”^source Health care and schools are provincial.
• Alberta's government estimates temporary residents cost it more than $1B^source a year in schools, health care and social programs, against $150M^source in taxes. Its own figures work out to $6.67^source to $7.33^source in services for every dollar of tax. The Premier has cited $10^source; her office says that adds capital costs, which the province has not put a number on. The estimate also leaves out the $1,731^source per resident, temporary residents included, that Ottawa pays Alberta in health and social transfers.
• Ottawa's own health program for asylum claimants and some refugees cost $896M^source in 2024-25, more than four times^source its 2020-21 cost. On June 30, 2026, 276,099^source asylum claims were still waiting for a decision, about five times the end of 2021^source.
• Ottawa promised to bring temporary residents down to 5%^source of the population by the end of 2026, then moved the deadline to the end of 2027^source. In February, Parliament's budget officer said it would get there partly by making 148,000^source temporary residents permanent: a change of status, not of how many people are here^source.

The per-person numbers: Canada, the US and Alberta →

Questions 1 to 4 on the October 19, 2026^source ballot are about immigration and who qualifies for provincial programs. The order in council that puts them on the ballot, O.C. 110/2026, says the results are not binding^source. This is the wording in the orders in council.

Elections Alberta says it cannot interpret the questions and refers voters to the Government of Alberta or their MLA. Question 5, on proof of citizenship to vote, is not covered on this page.

Question 10, which will be counted first at each voting location^source, asks:

Its result is not binding either (O.C. 160/2026)^source. Read the case for Alberta →

Immigration levels are set in Ottawa. This is how the federal government described its own policy, in its own documents, while the numbers moved.

1. November 2022. “Immigration is critical to Canada’s economic growth,”^source Ottawa's annual report to Parliament said.

2. 2023. Canada's population grew by 1,193,044^source people, or 3.0%^source. Statistics Canada's first report called it “the highest annual population growth rate (+3.2%) in Canada since 1957 (+3.3%).”^source Most of it came from temporary residents^source.

3. March 2024. The immigration minister set a target: “a decrease in our temporary residents population to 5% over the next three years.”^source

4. October 2024. For the first time, Ottawa's levels plan set targets for temporary residents: 673,650^source new arrivals in 2025. It also put a date on the 5%^source goal: the end of 2026. The same month, the number of temporary residents peaked at 2,984,285^source, or 7.2%^source of the population.

5. November 2025. Ottawa's report conceded that “the pace of arrivals began to exceed Canada’s capacity to absorb and support newcomers in the way we are used to doing”^source and that “this system is no longer sustainable.”^source It cut the 2026 target for new temporary residents to 385,000^source and moved the 5%^source goal to the end of 2027.

6. February 2026. Working from Statistics Canada's estimates before their September revision, Parliament's budget officer noted the new date is “one year later than originally planned.”^source It projected Ottawa would reach the target partly by granting permanent residence to 148,000^source people already here, which will “reduce the NPR population without affecting the number of people present in Canada.”^source Without those conversions, it estimated, temporary residents would still be 5.3%^source of the population at the end of 2027.

7. July 2026. Statistics Canada estimated 2,779,774^source temporary residents (preliminary), 6.7%^source of the population, after a one-year drop of 154,614^source, the largest since comparable records began in 1971.

Where the growth came from. From July 2015 to July 2025, Canada's population grew by 5.9M^source people (16.5%^source). New permanent residents accounted for about 61%^source of that growth, and the rise in temporary residents for about 36%^source.

Some costs stay with Ottawa. The largest direct one is the Interim Federal Health Program, which covers health care for asylum claimants and some refugees until they qualify for provincial coverage or leave the country.

It cost $211M^source in 2020-21 and $896M^source in 2024-25. In its latest projection, from May 2026, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) puts it at $975M^source for 2025-26, rising to $1.4B^source by 2029-30 before co-payments. By its estimate, co-payments that started on May 1, 2026 will cut about $217M^source a year from that by 2029-30, leaving about $1.2B^source.

Why it grew: more claims, slower decisions and higher costs per person. The PBO points to “the longer duration of eligibility caused by extended determination times,”^source and notes “urgent dental expenditures increasing from $30 million to $257 million, over five years.”^source At the end of 2025, 304,192^source asylum claims were waiting for a decision, five times the 2021 level^source, and about 65%^source had been waiting more than a year. By June 30, 2026, the Immigration and Refugee Board's own count was 276,099^source, still about five times the end of 2021^source.

The PBO puts Ottawa's cost for each asylum claimant at about $16,500^source over the life of the claim, in 2024 dollars. It ranges from $9,055^source when the first hearing succeeds to $40,814^source for a claim that goes through two hearings, two appeals and a pre-removal risk assessment before removal. These are federal costs only. (The PBO costed claimants who arrived visa-free with an electronic travel authorization, assuming each step costs the same for every claimant.)

About 7%^source of the program's 2024-25 spending on care in Canada, $57.6M^source, paid for care delivered in Alberta.

Ottawa decides who comes, and runs the system that decides asylum claims. Provinces and cities carry much of the cost in between.

Housing. Budget 2024 said sheltering asylum claimants “falls under provincial and municipal jurisdiction.”^source Ottawa had paid almost $960M^source since 2017 to help, on a cost-sharing basis. It offered $1.1B^source more over three years, with the 2026-27 money “conditional on provincial and municipal investments in permanent transitional housing solutions for asylum claimants.”^source

Waiting. In 2018 the budget officer warned that provincial and municipal costs “increase with the time it takes the federal government to make a final determination”^source on a claim. Ottawa had repaid some of those costs, it noted, but “it has no obligation to do so.”^source

Health care and schools. Ottawa's November 2025 report says the temporary-resident surge “put pressure on housing supply, the healthcare system, and schools.”^source Those systems are run and mostly paid for by the provinces.

What Ottawa sends back. Federal health and social transfers are paid per person, and Statistics Canada counts temporary residents as residents^sourcesource. Alberta got $1,731^source per resident in 2025-26 and gets $1,792^source in 2026-27.

Alberta's government says services for temporary residents are “estimated to cost Alberta taxpayers more than $1 billion per year.”^source It is the provincial government's own estimate. Here is what it counts, what it covers and what it leaves out.

The province then says the net cost is still over $1B^source once it adds capital costs and jobs that it says “could have been filled by Albertans.”^source It puts no number on either.

What it covers. Temporary residents only, for one year, and provincial operating costs. The website does not define “temporary residents”; Statistics Canada's count includes work and study permit holders, their families and asylum claimants. Permanent residents are not part of the estimate.

What it leaves out.

1. Ottawa's per-person transfers. Ottawa splits its health and social transfers by head count, and temporary residents are counted. At $1,731^source a head in 2025-26, Alberta's 285,542^source temporary residents (the 2025 average) account for about $494M^source of what Alberta receives, and the estimate does not mention it. The national totals are set by formula, so this is Alberta's share of them, not extra federal money.
2. Federal taxes. The website does not say which taxes its $150M^source includes. Working temporary residents also pay federal income tax, CPP and EI contributions and GST. That money goes to Ottawa, which sends part of it back through the transfers above. We found no published estimate for Alberta's temporary residents; the PBO has estimated taxes paid nationally by asylum claimants and refugees who file returns.
3. The method. The website does not explain how any of the figures were calculated. Asked by The Tyee, the Premier's office said schools were costed at $12,000^source a student, with 47,389^source temporary-resident students enrolled in 2025 (the website says 45,544^source), and health at 1.27%^source of CIHI's $31.8B^source estimate of 2024 health costs. (News report.)

Does it add up? On the province's own figures, $1B^source to $1.1B^source in costs against $150M^source in taxes is $6.67^source to $7.33^source in services for every dollar of tax. Premier Danielle Smith has put it at $10^source. Her office told The Tyee that her figure adds capital costs, such as school spaces, which the $1B^source leaves out, and gave no number for them. (News report.) Per person, the figures imply $3,502^source to $3,852^source in services and $525^source in taxes for each temporary resident a year.

Count the federal transfers, and the gap between the province's cost and tax estimates falls to $356M^source to $456M^source a year on Alberta's own books: $1,246^source to $1,596^source per temporary resident.

That is still a real cost to Alberta, and it is the province's own estimate. It is also well below the headline, and nobody outside government can check it until the province shows its work.

Whether immigrants pay in more than they draw out depends on who is counted and how.

• A 2011 Fraser Institute study found immigrants who arrived from 1987 to 2004 received a net fiscal transfer of $6,051^source each in 2005-06, compared with the average Canadian, all of it because they paid less tax: they drew slightly less in benefits. (Think-tank analysis.)
• Economists Mohsen Javdani and Krishna Pendakur fixed errors in that method, looked at all immigrants who arrived from 1970 to 2004, compared them with Canadian-born residents and credited immigrants for the taxes they pay toward public goods such as defence. They got $450^source per immigrant. (Academic research.)
• Researchers at IRCC, Ottawa's own immigration department, projected that refugees and family-class immigrants who landed in 2016 will have negative or zero average lifetime net direct fiscal contributions, far below economic immigrants^source. (Peer-reviewed, 2020.)

The mix is a policy choice made in Ottawa. Its 2026-2028 plan raises the economic share of new permanent residents to 64%^source. Question 1 asks whether the Government of Alberta should take more control over immigration, in part to prioritize economic migration.

Ottawa said immigration was critical to economic growth, and the economy did grow: real GDP rose 21.7%^source from 2015 to 2025. But the population grew 16.5%^source, so real GDP per person rose just 4.4%^source in ten years. When Ottawa cut its targets, Parliament's budget officer projected the new plan would leave real GDP 1.7%^source lower by 2027, and real GDP per person 1.4%^source higher.

The per-person numbers: Canada, the US and Alberta →

Questions 1 to 4 ask whether Alberta should have more say over who comes and who qualifies for provincial programs. Question 10 asks whether Alberta should start the legal process toward a binding vote on leaving Canada. Both come back to the same fact: Ottawa sets the national levels, and provinces pay for much of what follows.

Read the case →

Every number links to its source, and figures we calculated (shares, per-person amounts, ratios) show their formula on the sources page. Statistics Canada revised its population estimates on September 23, 2026; this page uses that release. Where the Alberta government and Ottawa report different counts of temporary residents, we use Statistics Canada's. All sources for this page →

What do you pay? Try the 2026 tax calculator →

The per-person numbers: Canada, the US and Alberta →