Waste · The full story
Trans Mountain: A $5.4B Capital Cost, Now a $34.2B Total. Ottawa Is the Lender.
Kinder Morgan put the expansion’s capital cost at $5.4B in 2013; the PBO put its total project cost at $34.2B in 2024. Ottawa bought it in 2018, promised in 2022 that “the government will spend no additional public money on the project”, and by the end of 2025 the Crown corporation that owns it owed Ottawa $32.4B.
By Grant Levy Published Updated Tap any number for its source
The price, each time it was announced, in the scope its author used
Kinder Morgan; Finance Canada; Trans Mountain Corporation; PBO
What happened
- Dec 2013Kinder Morgan applies to expand the line, at a capital cost of $5.4B. Kinder Morgan, Dec 2013
- Nov 2016The federal cabinet approves the expansion by Order in Council. Canada Gazette, 10 Dec 2016 (P.C. 2016-1069)
- May 2018Ottawa agrees to buy the line and the project for $4.5B. Finance Canada, 29 May 2018
- Jun 2019After the Federal Court of Appeal quashed the first approval, cabinet approves the project again. Canada Gazette, 22 Jun 2019 (P.C. 2019-820)
- Feb 2020Finance Canada recalls Kinder Morgan’s 2017 estimate, $7.4B with financing, for service by December 2019. The Crown corporation’s board approves $12.6B, the first price Ottawa states. Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020
In service · promised and delivered
- Kinder Morgan’s date, 2017
- December 2019
- In commercial service
- May 1, 2024
Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020; Trans Mountain, 1 May 2024 - Feb 2022Finance says “the government will spend no additional public money on the project” and that the corporation will borrow from banks instead. Finance Canada, 18 Feb 2022
- Feb 2022The corporation’s estimate reaches $21.4B, as the PBO later recorded. PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report
- Mar 2023The estimate reaches $30.9B. Trans Mountain Corporation, 10 Mar 2023 (repost)
- May 2024The expanded line enters commercial service on May 1, 2024. Trans Mountain, 1 May 2024
- Nov 2024The PBO puts the total project cost at $34.2B. PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report
- Dec 2024About $19.0B of bank debt is refinanced through Ottawa’s Canada Account. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
Who decided
Trans Mountain · who signed for what
- Approval, 2016 and 2019
- Federal cabinet
- Purchase, 2018
- $4.5B
- Bought by
- Finance Canada, through CDEV
- Lender since Dec 2024
- Ottawa’s Canada Account
- The federal cabinet (Governor in Council). approved the expansion in 2016 and, after the court quashed that approval, again in June 2019. Canada Gazette, 22 Jun 2019 (P.C. 2019-820)
- The Minister of Finance and the Department of Finance. agreed in May 2018 to buy the line and the project for $4.5B, through the Crown corporation CDEV, with the money lent from the Canada Account. Finance Canada, 29 May 2018
- Trans Mountain Corporation’s board. approved each new cost estimate, starting with the first one Ottawa published in February 2020. Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020
- Finance Canada. decided in February 2022 that no more public money would go in, and that the corporation would borrow from banks. Finance Canada, 18 Feb 2022
- CDEV and Trans Mountain Corporation, with the Canada Account. refinanced about $19.0B of that bank debt with Ottawa in December 2024. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
Each step was a decision of the federal government or the Crown corporation it owns.
What the money bought
The expansion’s total project cost, and what the PBO says the whole system would sell for
PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report, p. 2
A finished pipeline to the coast, in service since May 1, 2024. Trans Mountain, 1 May 2024
That is years after Kinder Morgan’s date of December 2019. Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020
It ran at an average of 86% of its capacity in 2025, and more than 65% of its exports went to Asia. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
The PBO values the whole system at $29.6B to $33.4B, depending on tolls: what it would sell for, not what was spent on it. Sold at either, it says, the corporation would have to write off the balance of its equity and record a loss. PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report
It bought a working pipeline.
Their figure, and the full cost
Their figureFinance Canada, February 2022: “the government will spend no additional public money on the project”. The corporation would finish the project with money from banks.
The full cost$32.4B owed to Ottawa under its credit agreement at the end of 2025, after about $19.0B of bank debt was moved onto Ottawa’s books, on a project the PBO estimates cost $34.2B.
The cost estimate, and the debt owed to Ottawa, which covers the purchase, construction and refinancing loans
PBO, 2024; CDEV 2025 Annual Report, p. 79
- The bank facility that replaced public money in 2022 “contained a guarantee provided by the GoC”, CDEV reports. The risk stayed public. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
- In December 2024, about $19.0B of that bank debt was refinanced through the Canada Account, Ottawa’s own lending window. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
- At 31 December 2025, the Trans Mountain borrower owed the Canada Account $32.4B. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
- The PBO says the gain or loss on a sale “will depend on what someone is willing to pay for it”. PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report
What the full measure cannot reach yet: the sale price, which no buyer has set, and the guarantees’ full size in 2023.
Their best case
What the Crown corporation says has come back
CDEV 2025 Annual Report, pp. 10 and 79
Put as they would put it, in their own words.
- Finance Canada, 2022, on the pledge. The corporation would “secure the funding necessary to complete the project with third-party financing”, not public money. Finance Canada, 18 Feb 2022
- Finance Canada and the corporation’s board, 2020. They called the project “commercially viable at this cost”, at the first price Ottawa published. Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020
- Finance Canada, 2023. It repeated that “no additional public money will be invested in this project”. Finance Canada, 10 Mar 2023
- CDEV, the Crown owner, 2025. It calls Trans Mountain “a revenue-generating public asset”, with $1.7B of capital returned to Canada and more than 65% of exports going to Asia. CDEV, 2025 Annual Report
Our read
The price, each time it was announced, in the scope its author used
Kinder Morgan; Finance Canada; Trans Mountain Corporation; PBO
The pipeline works, and getting oil to Asian buyers is a real gain for the country. That is their best case, and it holds.
But a project Ottawa first priced at $12.6B in 2020 now has a total project cost, by the PBO’s estimate, of $34.2B, and the promise of no more public money ended with Ottawa as its lender, owed $32.4B. Our read: a loan guarantee and a loan are public money, and the public carried the risk of every overrun.
Whether the money comes back depends on a sale nobody has priced, at values the PBO says would book a loss.
The promise was no more public money. The lender is you.
Still open
- The sale. Ottawa says it will sell, and has named no price or date. The document that settles it is a sale agreement, or the budget line that books it.
- The guarantees. CDEV reports the 2022 bank facility carried a federal guarantee; how far the guarantee grew in 2023 comes so far only from news reports. The Canada Account’s annual report would settle it.
The next read
Trans Mountain is one item in the full count of federal overruns, failures and improper payments.
The waste fileThe receipts
- Kinder Morgan, Dec 2013
- Canada Gazette, 10 Dec 2016 (P.C. 2016-1069)
- Finance Canada, 29 May 2018
- Canada Gazette, 22 Jun 2019 (P.C. 2019-820)
- Finance Canada backgrounder, 7 Feb 2020
- Finance Canada, 18 Feb 2022
- Trans Mountain Corporation, 10 Mar 2023 (repost)
- Finance Canada, 10 Mar 2023
- Trans Mountain, 1 May 2024
- PBO, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 Report
- CDEV, 2025 Annual Report